Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[Bubbler86]

9 minutes ago, anotherman said:

How much frozen?

Frozen until wed evening.  Wet the next 24 hours. 

[Bubbler86]

12 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Virga storm in progress for most of us.

https://radar.weather.gov/station/kccx/standard

- (negative) dBZ stuff.

 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Today could be one of those days where it's very painful watching the radar loop.

[Blizzard of 93]

As @MAG5035 mentioned, the Saturday storm is looking potentially more Wintry at least on the front end.

Some models even have a change back to snow as the storm exits Sunday.

[Voyager]

21 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

- (negative) dBZ stuff.

 

Does that mean it's going up instead of falling from the clouds?

[Voyager]

12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

As @MAG5035 mentioned, the Saturday storm is looking potentially more Wintry at least on the front end.

Some models even have a change back to snow as the storm exits Sunday.

There goes my re-scheduled birthday dinner. 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Voyager said:

There goes my re-scheduled birthday dinner. 

Why complain? No birthday party, no birthday. Enjoy your extended youth!

[Voyager]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Why complain? No birthday party, no birthday. Enjoy your extended youth!

Well now, I never thought of it that way...lol

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Voyager said:

Well now, I never thought of it that way...lol

That's because you're not as old as me. 

[paweather]

Radar looks good down south but moving west to east. No north trend but we win some, we lose some. 

[mahantango#1]

1 minute ago, Voyager said:

Well now, I never thought of it that way...lol

Were you inviting that special someone from the ot forum to celebrate with you on your birthday? And now they possibly wont be able to make it due to inclement weather.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

12z HRRR remains unimpressed.......

 

[mahantango#1]

I think JB is hinting at a possible blockbuster storm next week. But unsure where exactly it will hit. But he thinks Pa. could be in play.

[mitchnick]

Sky looks like it could start snowing any minute. But alas...

[Bubbler86]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Sky looks like it could start snowing any minute. But alas...

...alas there is no actual precip in the lower levels over us?  LOL

 

[sauss06]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Sky looks like it could start snowing any minute. But alas...

it absolutely does

[Bubbler86]

26/22 for an 85% relative humidity here so once snow gets over head it will start falling almost immediately.   Column is almsot fully saturated.  MDT is at 70% humidity themselves so not right away but would not take long. 

[Bubbler86]

3K INIT vs. radar reality.  Not too shabby

[AccuChris]

The HRRR just refuses to be impressed with any of this for these two waves. Has basically nothing precip-wise for the LSV today/tonight or for tomorrow night


.

[CASH_COOP]

2 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

The HRRR just refuses to be impressed with any of this for these two waves. Has basically nothing precip-wise for the LSV today/tonight or for tomorrow night


.

Shows winners and losers.   .40” western Adams isn’t too bad 

[AccuChris]

Shows winners and losers.   .40” western Adams isn’t too bad 

Its very spotty and disorganized, especially for the second wave no doubt. It really has been banging the drum that very little accumulation makes it into PA tonight. Will be curious the final outcome tomorrow morning since the NAM suite has been much more generous


.

[Bubbler86]

3K is 2-5" just south of Harrisburg and south.  Strong cutoff north of the Burg and in Cumberland.  

[mitchnick]

Nam shifted north some. Has me at 3.5-4" fwiw.

[paweather]

Not bad at all on the NAM. Time will tell now. 

[Itstrainingtime]

It's fun watching and analyzing what's going on later today with at least 2 more opportunities (including a potential bell ringer) in our hip pocket to follow over the next 1.5 weeks. We haven't had this amount of action in years. 

[pasnownut]

2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

On the rgem it does not stop precipitating in the southern tier of this forum until Thursday afternoon. 

Glad to see you "back"

Hope you are feeling better.

May need you for the 2/20 blizzard 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, pasnownut said:

Glad to see you "back"

Hope you are feeling better.

May need you for the 2/20 blizzard 

LOL.  I have nothing better to do but still feel bad.  Excedrin is saving me like I mentioned yesterday.   

[pasnownut]

2 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

Boy things have sure escalated the last few runs in terms of the medium-longer range. It appears we transition into a pattern next week more favorable for traditional amplification and the overnight runs have definitely obliged on that front with the big storm being progged D8-10 on both Euro and GFS as well as some ensemble support. That’s when the MJO is forecast to be running in 8 by that point, coupled with the PNA forecast to transition to postive and the NAO transitioning from deep negative toward neutral. Definitely a period of interest for sure. 

Working backwards, the weekend system is trending towards somewhat more interesting. Models seem to be starting to respond toward the fact there is a pretty significantly negative NAO block ongoing and have thus started forcing that deeper low more SE towards the coast instead of a straight lakes cutter. GFS/Euro have actually been taking the low to the coast along or under the M/D line, with the GFS being the colder scenario. Either way, that storm might not be the straight forward brief mix to rain scenario it had been looking like. 

Lastly, we still seem set for today.. least in terms of what I was thinking for accums. No real changes on those thoughts.. which was basically not much above I-80, 1-2” between I-80 and the turnpike, and 2-4” turnpike south..with near the M/D line maybe seeing a couple 5” amounts. One thing I’ve been watching is some guidance has been getting the snow up into the central counties a bit further in latitude.. so AOO-UNV corridor could possibly get into a lower advisory amount type scenario. We shall see. Tomorrow’s mix scenario that may start as more snow is still there but QPF has been kind of lacking with that lately. It will likely need another advisory for most in here for at least T ice expected and maybe an inch or two of snow for some. 

yeah, the other day I suggested the same regarding the models catching onto the tellies, and was thinking this weekend was still "up in the air" as the models didnt fit the pattern - so to speak. 

Not sure if enough of a correction for a big win, but at least maybe a little better in the frozen variety.

[pasnownut]

7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It's fun watching and analyzing what's going on later today with at least 2 more opportunities (including a potential bell ringer) in our hip pocket to follow over the next 1.5 weeks. We haven't had this amount of action in years. 

agreed.  The hunt is so fun...and yeah, can be so depressing, but if you dont have shit in the chute....then you dont have shit.

I'll take it.

[Superstorm]

9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It's fun watching and analyzing what's going on later today with at least 2 more opportunities (including a potential bell ringer) in our hip pocket to follow over the next 1.5 weeks. We haven't had this amount of action in years. 

Going to be some GREAT model runs the next few days.  Long sleepless nights ahead.