Ruin Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 On 2/11/2025 at 1:59 AM, AccuChris said: FWIW, long range HRRR for wave #1 not very impressive . Expand thats a swing and a miss for that model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 On 2/11/2025 at 1:05 AM, anotherman said: I thought this was a family thread! Expand FU! This was a phone typo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I think AllWeather's name is Matt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 On 2/11/2025 at 2:27 AM, AllWeather said: Oh, hey! Used to be full-timer here. Glad I’m out - TV is a rough business. Super happy now and lurking often! Expand Hi! Good to hear from you. Please chime in when you get the chance. We would love to have your insights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 On 2/11/2025 at 2:52 AM, CarlislePaWx said: I think AllWeather's name is Matt. Expand Yes sir. I’m in real estate now and loving it, but my wife still asks for forecasts so I stay plugged in every day. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 On 2/11/2025 at 2:41 AM, paweather said: FU! This was a phone typo! It’s called sarcasm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 On 2/11/2025 at 2:56 AM, AllWeather said: Yes sir. I’m in real estate now and loving it, but my wife still asks for forecasts so I stay plugged in every day. Expand Your coverage/reports/forecasts on WGAL for the January 2016 storm were epic. I think they're still on the station's YouTube page. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 On 2/11/2025 at 3:00 AM, Itstrainingtime said: Your coverage/reports/forecasts on WGAL for the January 2016 storm were epic. I think they're still on the station's YouTube page. Expand That storm was insane. I’ll never forget storm taking shape and the CCB aiming right into SC PA and thinking “man, someone is going to top 3’ from this”. But of course you have to be measured and conservative on air for hours, so it wasn’t until we had reports over 2’ ground truth that we started to verbalize the monstrous historic nature of the storm. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 On 2/11/2025 at 2:53 AM, Blizzard of 93 said: Hi! Good to hear from you. Please chime in when you get the chance. We would love to have your insights. Expand Let’s see - don’t think this is the same storm at 1/15, but don’t be shocked if we get another one of those H7 fronto bands setting up further north than progged. Could be over the LSV somewhere. May get a surprise in there. Also, I really like the 2/15-2/22 timeframe. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 On 2/11/2025 at 3:00 AM, Itstrainingtime said: Your coverage/reports/forecasts on WGAL for the January 2016 storm were epic. I think they're still on the station's YouTube page. Expand Allweather miss you man the best along with MAG. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 On 2/11/2025 at 2:59 AM, anotherman said: It’s called sarcasm. Expand Sorry man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Gfs puts the world back where it belongs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 On 2/11/2025 at 4:57 AM, mitchnick said: Gfs puts the world back where it belongs. Expand On 2/11/2025 at 6:23 AM, mitchnick said: Euro Expand That is bizarre agreement 10 days out. Wow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 On 2/11/2025 at 6:23 AM, mitchnick said: Euro Expand 10 days out not buying this lol. it will either slide way south or be a lake cutter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 6Z GFS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Low of 23. I’ll put the over/under for KMJS at an even two inches. Sadly, I’m leaning towards the under. Who knows, maybe we’ll get lucky with some mid level forcing out ahead of the main show. You never know. Every storm has a few surprises but I’m keeping expectations low with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 6z NAM twins say the 2 to 4 & even 3 to 6 calls for the LSV could still work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 On 2/11/2025 at 10:52 AM, anotherman said: 6Z GFS Expand 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Boy things have sure escalated the last few runs in terms of the medium-longer range. It appears we transition into a pattern next week more favorable for traditional amplification and the overnight runs have definitely obliged on that front with the big storm being progged D8-10 on both Euro and GFS as well as some ensemble support. That’s when the MJO is forecast to be running in 8 by that point, coupled with the PNA forecast to transition to postive and the NAO transitioning from deep negative toward neutral. Definitely a period of interest for sure. Working backwards, the weekend system is trending towards somewhat more interesting. Models seem to be starting to respond toward the fact there is a pretty significantly negative NAO block ongoing and have thus started forcing that deeper low more SE towards the coast instead of a straight lakes cutter. GFS/Euro have actually been taking the low to the coast along or under the M/D line, with the GFS being the colder scenario. Either way, that storm might not be the straight forward brief mix to rain scenario it had been looking like. Lastly, we still seem set for today.. least in terms of what I was thinking for accums. No real changes on those thoughts.. which was basically not much above I-80, 1-2” between I-80 and the turnpike, and 2-4” turnpike south..with near the M/D line maybe seeing a couple 5” amounts. One thing I’ve been watching is some guidance has been getting the snow up into the central counties a bit further in latitude.. so AOO-UNV corridor could possibly get into a lower advisory amount type scenario. We shall see. Tomorrow’s mix scenario that may start as more snow is still there but QPF has been kind of lacking with that lately. It will likely need another advisory for most in here for at least T ice expected and maybe an inch or two of snow for some. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 So we've punted on this week and are now working on *checks notes* 10 days from now? It's over. Edit: Nevermind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Pattern is so ripe the storm is able to get too wound up. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 On the rgem it does not stop precipitating in the southern tier of this forum until Thursday afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 On 2/11/2025 at 12:11 PM, Bubbler86 said: On the rgem it does not stop precipitating in the southern tier of this forum until Thursday afternoon. Expand Sounds like a leakage problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 On 2/11/2025 at 12:11 PM, Bubbler86 said: On the rgem it does not stop precipitating in the southern tier of this forum until Thursday afternoon. Expand How much frozen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Virga storm in progress for most of us. https://radar.weather.gov/station/kccx/standard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I've been using the SST maps at Cyclonic weather for a couple years, but their radar and sat stuff looks pretty good too. https://cyclonicwx.com/floater/us/ir/ https://cyclonicwx.com/radar/neus/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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