Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

Long range HRRR says “meh” with tomorrow nights wave


.

18z Nam is noticeably drier to our west than 12z thru 21hrs.

[Bubbler86]

17 minutes ago, Ruin said:

Figures

[Ruin]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Bur am I wrong nope p

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Ruin said:

Bur am I wrong nope p

Not sure "figures" is a right or wrong proposition.    

[Bubbler86]

28 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

18z Nam is noticeably drier to our west than 12z thru 21hrs.

Drier for us as well.  More like 6Z. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Advisories up for the southern tier counties for 2-3".

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Advisories up for the southern tier counties for 2-3".

That sounds reasonable. I'm 7 miles north as the crow flies from the MD border and was hoping for at least 3" so I  lose site of my grass before it all gets all washed away on Thursday. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

The latest long range runs of the RAP and HRRR have us at basically an inch or less.  Really hoping this doesn't fizzle into a non-event.

[Bubbler86]

18 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Advisories up for the southern tier counties for 2-3".

They are going with ITT"s 2-4 vs. My still standing 3-6

[Ruin]

54 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Not sure "figures" is a right or wrong proposition.    

Models are wrong mote then they are right esp with winter wtorks 

[Itstrainingtime]

7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

They are going with ITT"s 2-4 vs. My still standing 3-6

I think we're both going down at this point. We shall see. You have bigger concerns right now. Please take care of yourself.

[Itstrainingtime]

11 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

The latest long range runs of the RAP and HRRR have us at basically an inch or less.  Really hoping this doesn't fizzle into a non-event.

Every mile in latitude is hurting us here...

[Mount Joy Snowman]

17 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Every mile in latitude is hurting us here...

Every last inch. 

[Festus]

LWX downgraded the Maryland border counties to a WWA.  2-4".  Not a great sign for any last minute northern creep.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Festus said:

LWX downgraded the Maryland border counties to a WWA.  2-4".  Not a great sign for any last minute northern creep.

I've got brisk NW winds still. I'll be shocked if we get a jump north of consequence with this one. BUT, it will mean the boundary is further south. My hope is part 2 overperforms while it rains cats and dogs in MD. 

[Bubbler86]

GFS looks like ITT got his crayons out.  2-4 LSV wide except maybe up by Pillow. 

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I've got brisk NW winds still. I'll be shocked if we get a jump north of consequence with this one. BUT, it will mean the boundary is further south. My hope is part 2 overperforms while it rains cats and dogs in MD. 

Lol Gfs still give N MD more snow on part 2 than me. Lol I give up. 

[canderson]

I just hope my garden mulch gets recovered. 

[Bubbler86]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Lol Gfs still give N MD more snow on part 2 than me. Lol I give up. 

WGAL just lite you up for 2-4. 

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

WGAL just lite you up for 2-4. 

18z Euro just gave you and me 3-4".

[paweather]

11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

WGAL just lite you up for 2-4. 

What about Lebanon county -1 to -3 

[Blizzard of 93]

18z Euro & GFS say the CTP Advisory might need expanded north 1 more layer in the LSV for Tues pm/Wed am.

[Itstrainingtime]

MU:

2-4" south of Rt. 30

Coating to 2" from Rt. 30 north to Harrisburg 

[Blizzard of 93]

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

MU:

2-4" south of Rt. 30

Coating to 2" from Rt. 30 north to Harrisburg 

He must not have looked at 18z.

[Blizzard of 93]

18z GFS is still the most interested model for potential round 2 Wednesday evening.

[paweather]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

He must not have looked at 18z.

Yep and that’s what ABC 27 said I’m in a C-2” line screw them  I guess could be true we will do better on round 2 

[paweather]

Blizz just lick us up for next week! Hopefully. 

[canderson]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

He must not have looked at 18z.

Elliott > a model run 

I predict a coating to .5” through Wednesday evening. We might get 1-2” overnight into Thursday though  

 

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, paweather said:

Yep and that’s what ABC 27 said I’m in a C-2” line screw them  I guess could be true we will do better on round 2 

These little waves approaching from the southwest notoriously juice up a bit towards game time.

Still time for some adjustments.

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, canderson said:

Elliott > a model run 

I predict a coating to .5” through Wednesday evening. We might get 1-2” overnight into Thursday though  

 

Of course he knows his stuff, but he hates cold & snow.