paweather Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: It’s just a matter of time until we cash in during the next 2 weeks. Hopefully Blizz. Definitely want it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago Euro is 1-2" for our forum Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 7 minutes ago, paweather said: I never said it was over....read I'm saying it's over. Storm to the south, gullywasher. Almost nobody gets anywhere within a sniff of what the wet dream runs, the 200+ hour runs we all know better than to avoid were showing. Finished. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago The good 15/16 day ensemble runs started around 2/4. So if we don’t have near 10 inches of snow by 2/20, then we can say it busted. We can then keep score & make declarations at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago Pivotal snowfall maps are much more conservative than WxBell again. This is another reason why I believe the bust potential here and to our south is high. Expectations are just too high based on those WxBell maps that never work out imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The good 15/16 day ensemble runs started around 2/3. We can then keep score & make declarations at that point. That then takes us to early/mid next week. Not looking good to expect anything near double digits that were being shown on those runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Pivotal snowfall maps are much more conservative than WxBell again. This is another reason why I believe the bust potential here and to our south is high. Expectations are just too high based on those WxBell maps that never work out imby. Sometimes precious Pivotal shows more than WB… It is always maybe a .5 inch difference either way. Really, it’s a pointless debate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: That then takes us to early/mid next week. Not looking good to expect anything near double digits that were being shown on those runs. 2/20 is 10 days away from now… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago By Thursday at 7pm, Euro has this on the ground. Boy, that was fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Sometimes precious Pivotal shows more than WB… It is always maybe a .5 inch difference either way. Really, it’s a pointless debate! Not debating, just stating why I'm doubting the numbers on some maps and that it plays into the bust potential. Bust potential is based on expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 2/20 is 10 days away from now… You said the good ensembles started on 2/3 so adding 15 or 16 days takes us to the 18th/19th, which is Tuesday/Wednesday of next week. Runs after 2/3 would certainly extend the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 16 minutes ago, WmsptWx said: I'm saying it's over. Storm to the south, gullywasher. Almost nobody gets anywhere within a sniff of what the wet dream runs, the 200+ hour runs we all know better than to avoid were showing. Finished. OK sorry I thought you were responding to my post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: You said the good ensembles started on 2/3 so adding 15 or 16 days takes us to the 18th/19th, which is Tuesday/Wednesday of next week. Runs after 2/3 would certainly extend the period. That’s my point, good ensemble runs started around 2/3 & all 3 ensembles for days had double digit totals. If we get to 2/20 & don’t have near double digit snow for the period, we can say it busted. Hopefully by that point we are staring down something significant as the general pattern look improves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 2/20 is 10 days away from now… Yeah Blizz, and I was just talking about one model run too. It can and will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago And like that, Euro has a storm on 2/20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: And like that, Euro has a storm on 2/20. Bingo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Bingo! Of course, it looks better south of us. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago Yes, but here is the problem folks...we keep kicking the can further down the road. Sorry to be such a pessimist, but that 20th storm on the Euro will be gone next run. It's always 10 days away...it'll soon be spring. Time keeps ticking away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Of course, it looks better south of us. Lol Should have stayed in Baltimore. LOL! No, I like you on this forum. I can't read the other forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago Just now, Storm Clouds said: Yes, but here is the problem folks...we keep kicking the can further down the road. Sorry to be such a pessimist, but that 20th storm on the Euro will be gone next run. It's always 10 days away... This is a fair post. I say that because while I acknowledge that the pattern does shoe signs of greatly improving next week, we've also seen great advertised patterns fail to materialize in previous years. The only definitive thing that should be said is there is potential. Nothing more, nothing less. Anyone saying it will snow or it won't snow is just being foolish right now. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago Just now, Storm Clouds said: Yes, but here is the problem folks...we keep kicking the can further down the road. Sorry to be such a pessimist, but that 20th storm on the Euro will be gone next run. It's always 10 days away... As pessimistic as I "may" (lol) sound sometimes, it's really disgust 95% of the time. But my $0.02 opinions are what I legit believe, right or wrong. That said, my gripe has been the lack of support on the operationals from what does appear to be a legit decent pattern advertised on the ensembles assuming they are correct. This storm finally gives some credence to the ensemble pattern imho. In addition, I posted in the MA long range forum this morning that the AI had 3 threats for next week. So maybe we'll start to see the operational runs lighting up with blue over us...we all hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago I think I can find a way to live with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago Eps 24hr snowfall for the period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 23 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Eps 24hr snowfall for the period Quite the signal for 9 or 10 days out. 48 hour snow map captures the potential tracks of the slow or fast ensemble members. This could be a long duration event with the blocking. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: By Thursday at 7pm, Euro has this on the ground. Boy, that was fast. Lol sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Quite the signal for 9 or 10 days out. 48 hour snow map captures the potential tracks of the slow or fast ensemble members. This could be a long duration event with the blocking. The pattern look is absolutely drool worthy & classic major storm signature. It literally checks all of the boxes. Potential is certainly there… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Quite the signal for 9 or 10 days out. 48 hour snow map captures the potential tracks of the slow or fast ensemble members. This could be a long duration event with the blocking. AO proged to go down to -5 now. I think the last time it went down that low was 2/10? Even if that's incorrect, an AO that low almost always favors ME/SE for storms. But this one, though starting south, is also proged to head north instead of out to sea thankfully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: The pattern look is absolutely drool worthy & classic major storm signature. It literally checks all of the boxes. Potential is certainly there… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago Long range HRRR says “meh” with tomorrow nights wave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 2 minutes ago, AccuChris said: Long range HRRR says “meh” with tomorrow nights wave . Figures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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