Bubbler86 Posted Friday at 05:32 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:32 PM 1 minute ago, Ruin said: When are models not wonky lol At 10 days out the butterfly effect is in full effect. If Tolleris yells more than expected on Thursday, the warmer air in Richmond causes the entire system to break down and an entirely new result on the next model run. It truly is Ensemble time right now for those betting...but the op's are more fun. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Friday at 05:40 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:40 PM 25 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: The GFS gets very wonky and interesting from late next week on. It's probably nothing but may be something. Riveting analysis, I know. I caught up with the lead programmer for the GFS model for his thoughts on the progression of the model's performance and what to expect going forward: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/slnR7fUHtxA 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted Friday at 05:40 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:40 PM 27 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: The GFS gets very wonky and interesting from late next week on. It's probably nothing but may be something. Riveting analysis, I know. I'd pay $9.99/month for this drivvel. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Friday at 05:42 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:42 PM 1 minute ago, WmsptWx said: I'd pay $9.99/month for this drivvel. I just inserted it above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Friday at 05:44 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:44 PM 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I caught up with the lead programmer for the GFS model for his thoughts on the progression of the model's performance and what to expect going forward: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/slnR7fUHtxA If the lead Dev for the GFS is near PSU, does that mean Accuweather is now managing the American models? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted Friday at 06:10 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:10 PM 27 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I just inserted it above. I now want my money back. I also reserve the right to retract this request in a few weeks time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted Friday at 06:11 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:11 PM 26 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: If the lead Dev for the GFS is near PSU, does that mean Accuweather is now managing the American models? I have zero doubts the Myers family is managing the GooFuS. Then again, after interviewing for a job at AccuWeather before, the GFS constantly reminding you of how great it is maybe tells me it's NOT run by a Myers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted Friday at 06:46 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:46 PM 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: At 10 days out the butterfly effect is in full effect. If Tolleris yells more than expected on Thursday, the warmer air in Richmond causes the entire system to break down and an entirely new result on the next model run. It truly is Ensemble time right now for those betting...but the op's are more fun. ive seen models go from one extreme to the other in a forecast for 2-3 days in the future and our outlook would go from warm 50s to snow and 30. or 30s to 60 just 2 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Friday at 08:33 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:33 PM 1 hour ago, Ruin said: ive seen models go from one extreme to the other in a forecast for 2-3 days in the future and our outlook would go from warm 50s to snow and 30. or 30s to 60 just 2 days out You should see the HRRR Hour to Hour! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Friday at 10:33 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:33 PM 18z GFS is a Happy Hour special for next weekend… Maps coming up soon… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted Friday at 10:34 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:34 PM One thing for sure, it's cold out. Today's high was 33, already down to 22 @5:33pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Friday at 10:39 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:39 PM 7 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 18z GFS is a Happy Hour special for next weekend… Maps coming up soon… Listen, if you want to pad your post count, you can do better than this. (Actually, it is not so great for some of us next weekend so I see why you are playing the preview game) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Friday at 10:41 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:41 PM 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Listen, if you want to pad your post count, you can do better than this. (Actually, it is not so great for next weekend so I see why you are playing the preview game) It’s great for 99% of us next weekend. What run are you looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Friday at 10:43 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:43 PM 9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 18z GFS is a Happy Hour special for next weekend… Maps coming up soon… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Friday at 10:43 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:43 PM 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: It’s great for 99% of us next weekend. What run are you looking at? The brooming snow it shows here. LOL. A can of compressed air to clean off the sidewalk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Friday at 10:47 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:47 PM 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Friday at 10:48 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:48 PM 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The brooming snow it shows here. LOL. A can of compressed air to clean off the sidewalk. Lol, sorry about your luck that run. Apologies to Franklin county! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Friday at 10:49 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:49 PM 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Great run for the rest of us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Friday at 10:49 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:49 PM 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Easter deluxe. Lanco Landing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Friday at 10:50 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:50 PM Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Great run for the rest of us! How much for Philly? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Friday at 10:51 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:51 PM 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Easter deluxe. Lanco Landing. @paweather might just pass out when he sees this eye candy! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Friday at 10:58 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:58 PM First up is this Sunday with the chance of a minor Advisory type event for the I-81 corridor on to the north & west. I’m rooting on the RGEM, which has remained consistent now for several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Friday at 11:01 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:01 PM Gfs is very January 1996'ish with a Blizzard followed by a pattern change warmup. OK by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Friday at 11:02 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:02 PM 3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: First up is this Sunday with the chance of a minor Advisory type event for the I-81 corridor on to the north & west. I’m rooting on the RGEM, which has remained consistent now for several runs. Painful...very, very painful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Saturday at 01:03 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:03 AM 18z Euro and Eps are on a different planet from the Gfs on the 21st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted Saturday at 01:29 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:29 AM Already down to 22 here with a forecasted low of 17. How low can we go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Saturday at 01:34 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:34 AM 31 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 18z Euro and Eps are on a different planet from the Gfs on the 21st. Planet Reality? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Saturday at 01:37 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:37 AM 7 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Already down to 22 here with a forecasted low of 17. How low can we go? You are 11 lower than me. Still above freezing here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted Saturday at 01:42 AM Author Share Posted Saturday at 01:42 AM 17.8 here @ 8:40pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted Saturday at 02:06 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:06 AM 22 here in the capital city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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