canderson Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Is this weekend a true rain maker? It looks like a crapload of precipitation (which we need). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 1 minute ago, canderson said: That's the one. Although for a lot of people it has you projecting out of both ends with equal force at the same time. Haha yes I had that as well, where shortly after vomiting I spent most of my time sitting on the commode. Not fun. Sorry for muddying up this thread with talk of bile and soft stools. I'll retreat back into my hole. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
str8liner Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: No nausea for me. Just high fever, bronchitis like feeling, and all over muscle aches since Sat. Covid test was positive. Since Saturday? Man Bubbler you are a gamer. When I get sick enough to run a fever I don't care what ensambles look like anymore. I am going to bed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Outside of the NAM, I'm not loving what I'm seeing from the 12z suite so far. Even some of the less heralded hi-res models are uninspiring. I think I'd sign up for 2" right now and call it a day, just to be safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
str8liner Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago On the border line of 4 inches here. At least I can shovel the sidewalk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 5 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Outside of the NAM, I'm not loving what I'm seeing from the 12z suite so far. Even some of the less heralded hi-res models are uninspiring. I think I'd sign up for 2" right now and call it a day, just to be safe. My snowfall prediction of 2-4" might not be as accurate as my sports prediction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 10 minutes ago, str8liner said: Since Saturday? Man Bubbler you are a gamer. When I get sick enough to run a fever I don't care what ensambles look like anymore. I am going to bed. Excedrin keeps me pulling through but yea not doing PBP today. If we did get 4, 5" tomorrow I hope I am feeling better re: all that area to shovel. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted 16 hours ago Author Share Posted 16 hours ago 34 minutes ago, mitchnick said: That's who I'm thinking. Lol Yup. You got it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
str8liner Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Excedrin keeps me pulling through but yea not doing PBP today. If we did get 4, 5" tomorrow I hope I am feeling better re: all that area to shovel. I wouldn't chance shoveling out in the cold air even if you are feeling better. My sister and her whole family are really sick with this crap right now and she had to go to the hospital yesterday for oxygen. I would get someone else to do the shoveling. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago GFS is basically nothing on 12z if dew points are low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Round 2 looks like a thump of snow on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 4 minutes ago, paweather said: GFS is basically nothing on 12z if dew points are low. Hour 63 is a throw down for the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Just now, Bubbler86 said: Hour 63 is a throw down for the south. Yep Round 2 does and for LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Just now, Bubbler86 said: Hour 63 is a throw down for the south. Most of CTP gets the snow goods with a round 2 thump. Much weaker low in the OH Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 5 minutes ago, paweather said: GFS is basically nothing on 12z if dew points are low. Ugh I hope this isn't one of those scenarios where the dry air just completely eviscerates the northern edge of the precipitation shield. We've seen it before. I distinctly remember a couple events where this has happened. Again, I'll take my 2" right now and walk. The good news is the GFS seems to really be keying in on that CAD front end thump of snow for Wed night. Who knows, maybe that will end up being our bigger event. Weather, always full of surprises. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 12z GFS just for round 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CASH_COOP Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 12z GFS just for round 2 Do any other models support this idea yet ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 19 minutes ago, CASH_COOP said: Do any other models support this idea yet ? 12z NAM was on board. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 12z Canadian on board for turnpike to the north for round 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago Looking over the NAM and GFS skew-T's for Wed night and it appears there's a warm layer around H800 that wants to spoil the party right off the bat, but then the heavy precip moves in during the late evening and cools the column enough for a couple hour period of heavy snow. The warm nose wins out pretty quickly and by midnight changes everything to rain. The key to squeezing the most out of this potential will be those couple hours where the CAD and column-cooling win out and provide us with two or three hours of hard plaster. We'll really need it to thump but I think it can and will. Hopefully the late night rain is minimized enough to not wash everything away. Keeping a keen eye on this one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago Not sure the GFS has the 19/20th storm on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago Looks like GFS is a dud after this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 26 minutes ago, paweather said: Looks like GFS is a dud after this week. They all are. That's why I posted in the MA forum and here I believe that ensemble support without the operationals advertising chances gives me no confidence of anything. As for this week, there is an usually high number of models that are not great even in MD. There is imho a much higher bust potential for totals between surface temps and qpf. Recall I mentioned this morning that the AI cut qpf for us and down into MD/DC areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: They all are. That's why I posted in the MA forum and here I believe that ensemble support without the operationals advertising chances gives me no confidence of anything. As for this week, there is an usually high number of models that are not great even in MD. There is imho a much higher bust potential for totals between surface temps and qpf. Recall I mentioned this morning that the AI cut qpf for us and down into MD/DC areas. Yeah the hype may lead to a letdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 6 minutes ago, paweather said: Yeah the hype may lead to a letdown. It’s just a matter of time until we cash in during the next 2 weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago Yeah. It's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago Just now, WmsptWx said: Yeah. It's over. I never said it was over....read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
str8liner Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 49 minutes ago, paweather said: Looks like GFS is a dud after this week. Looks like some pretty cold air moves in after that storm on the 16th and suppresses everything to the south again. Just so hard to get everything to line up for big snows nowadays it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now