mitchnick Posted Sunday at 05:40 AM Share Posted Sunday at 05:40 AM All we need is 25-50 miles in 72 hours. That's doable. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Sunday at 05:47 AM Share Posted Sunday at 05:47 AM 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: All we need is 25-50 miles in 72 hours. That's doable. The 0z Euro overall precip shield ticked north over its 18z run. The light blue is a little further north in northern PA this run. Get in the main shield & turn it will come down to banding. We have time in the LSV to get back to low end Warning amounts in the LSV. If not, I could live with 3 or 4 inches of snow this time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Sunday at 05:58 AM Share Posted Sunday at 05:58 AM 5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 0z Euro overall precip shield ticked north over its 18z run. The light blue is a little further north in northern PA this run. Get in the main shield & turn it will come down to banding. We have time in the LSV to get back to low end Warning amounts in the LSV. If not, I could live with 3 or 4 inches of snow this time. The Kuchera numbers are lower on Pivotal. WxBell are always the highest. I seem to be stuck at 4-5". Not bad, but I always look at my old home and when I see they're double me, my blood boils. Lol The only reason why I moved up here without a fight (with my wife) was the snow. Of course, the last event when I got 6.5" and they got 1", I was fine. Lol But that's the way it used to be. I swear the number of events where BWI got more snow than Hanover has been incredible vs before I moved here. It was rare before, now it's commonplace. Global warming my a$$! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted Sunday at 06:46 AM Share Posted Sunday at 06:46 AM Here's my wrap up for the storm... I recorded 0.6" of sleet (which was less than Thursday). That 0.6" of sleet melted down to 0.36" giving an SLR of 6:1. It very likely was not that high because of an unknown level of freezing rain which occurred throughout most of the event to varying degrees. I recorded 0.01" more of freezing rain after the sleet ended around 10pm which gave me a melted storm total of 0.37". Enough freezing rain fell on top of the sleet to create a pretty hard glaze. It was hard enough that I could walk on it and not sink into the sleet. I think it is safe to say that the combo of sleet and freezing rain glaze will help keep a fair amount of this mixture around until the start of the Tuesday storm, which I believe is now going to be dubbed "storm #1". Finally, the temperature has been rising very slowly for the past several hours and is now up to 31.3 degrees at 1:43am. Double finally...it certainly is encouraging to see improvement across the board for storm #1. A rough average of all the posted models puts me between 3" and 3.5". That sure beats 1" from last night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Sunday at 11:27 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:27 AM @CASH_COOP It might be time for you to yet again talk to CTP… How the heck did they only record .1 of “snow” yesterday after several hours of sleet? They had several hours as “freezing rain/ice pellets” that should have added up to at least several tenths of what goes in the books as snow. Many of us not far away from MDT had near 1 inch of sleet or more… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted Sunday at 11:32 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:32 AM 5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: @CASH_COOP It might be time for you to yet again talk to CTP… How the heck did they only record .1 of “snow” yesterday after several hours of sleet? They had several hours as “freezing rain/ice pellets” that should have added up to at least several tenths of what goes in the books as snow. Many of us not far away from MDT had near 1 inch of sleet or more… Agreed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Sunday at 11:36 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:36 AM Just now, mahantango#1 said: Agreed! It really doesn’t matter much, but I just want them to get it right. We had hours of heavy sleet that needed plowed here in Marysville. Heck, even @canderson said he had 1.5” of sleet in the heat island of downtown Harrisburg. Somehow MDT gets .1 … I don’t buy it for one second! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CASH_COOP Posted Sunday at 11:50 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:50 AM 21 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: @CASH_COOP It might be time for you to yet again talk to CTP… How the heck did they only record .1 of “snow” yesterday after several hours of sleet? They had several hours as “freezing rain/ice pellets” that should have added up to at least several tenths of what goes in the books as snow. Many of us not far away from MDT had near 1 inch of sleet or more… Agreed seems low. I managed .3” of sleet and I was on the edge of the heavier precip. Let’s see if they adjust first. Maybe the decimal point was put in the wrong place ?! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Sunday at 12:01 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:01 PM 6z Euro was similar to 0z with bringing Advisory level snow to the LSV by Wednesday am. Certainly room for some upside with just a slight bump north over the next 3 days until game time begins on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Sunday at 12:15 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:15 PM The 6z GFS improved for the follow up wave Wednesday night into Thursday for the Susquehanna Valley for some front end snow before the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Sunday at 12:19 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:19 PM Next weekend, the GFS & Canadian are ramping up the possibility of an at least moderate snow event turning to mix in the southern tier with their latest runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Sunday at 12:33 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:33 PM 30 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 6z Euro was similar to 0z with bringing Advisory level snow to the LSV by Wednesday am. Certainly room for some upside with just a slight bump north over the next 3 days until game time begins on Tuesday. 6z EPS ticked slightly better for the LSV for Tues/Wed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted Sunday at 12:58 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:58 PM .2” of IP/ZR accumulation off of .28” liquid here in West Hempfield. Just not enough action down here south of the turnpike but to be fair the models did a pretty good job illustrating that disparity. Happy to hear the jogs north have begun for the Tue/Wed timeframe. I think we’ll be in for a solid 3-4” type of event but will hone in more after the big game today. Good luck to all the birds fans out there. It’s not often you can say this but for today most of the country is rooting for Philly ha. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Sunday at 01:16 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:16 PM 6z AI cut back on qpf some. Can't say for sure, so you'll need to wait until one of the other sites comes out. It does seem to be going back and further over the last 6 runs or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Sunday at 01:25 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:25 PM 8 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 6z AI cut back on qpf some. Can't say for sure, so you'll need to wait until one of the other sites comes out. It does seem to be going back and further over the last 6 runs or so. It looks really juicy for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman Posted Sunday at 01:25 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:25 PM 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: @CASH_COOP It might be time for you to yet again talk to CTP… How the heck did they only record .1 of “snow” yesterday after several hours of sleet? They had several hours as “freezing rain/ice pellets” that should have added up to at least several tenths of what goes in the books as snow. Many of us not far away from MDT had near 1 inch of sleet or more… Yes...my observation was 0.5" with 0.33" liquid. And my location is ~2 miles SSW of KMDT...We had heavy sleet for over an hour last evening...and I do mean heavy to the point the plows came through and pushed the accumulated sleet off the roads... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Sunday at 01:29 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:29 PM 5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: It looks really juicy for next weekend. Yeah, but it's basically a rain storm. Might be some front end frozen, but the slp passes west of the Appalachians. Euro isn't much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted Sunday at 01:37 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:37 PM 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Yeah, but it's basically a rain storm. Might be some front end frozen, but the slp passes west of the Appalachians. Euro isn't much better. if I remember a few days ago most of the models were showing this Tuesday to be a central PA hit and then the gfs had that one run with a big move south and only came back north modestly and the rest of the models trended towards it. maybe the gfs is onto something for the weekend storm. time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Sunday at 01:48 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:48 PM 10 minutes ago, kdskidoo said: if I remember a few days ago most of the models were showing this Tuesday to be a central PA hit and then the gfs had that one run with a big move south and only came back north modestly and the rest of the models trended towards it. maybe the gfs is onto something for the weekend storm. time will tell. Would definitely give the gfs and Ggem camp a chance considering at range the euro hasn’t represented the pattern or blocking well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Sunday at 01:52 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:52 PM 13 minutes ago, kdskidoo said: if I remember a few days ago most of the models were showing this Tuesday to be a central PA hit and then the gfs had that one run with a big move south and only came back north modestly and the rest of the models trended towards it. maybe the gfs is onto something for the weekend storm. time will tell. I'm just saying what it shows. Who knows what it will end up being. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted Sunday at 01:56 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:56 PM @Blizzard of 93 I think you said 3-6” on Tuesday you might be right. But I have to check with Ruin first. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Sunday at 02:02 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:02 PM I'm riding 2-4" with 2" north of the turnpike up to 4" at the M/D line. I don't see any reason to change. If we want a big dog the week of 2/20 I think we want next weekend to cut. And I think it will. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted Sunday at 02:07 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:07 PM That sleet is damned hard to shovel. What a workout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted Sunday at 02:12 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:12 PM 18 minutes ago, WmsptWx said: That sleet is damned hard to shovel. What a workout. I’m dreading it. The sleet wall the plow made looks evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted Sunday at 02:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:27 PM I'm riding 2-4" with 2" north of the turnpike up to 4" at the M/D line. I don't see any reason to change. If we want a big dog the week of 2/20 I think we want next weekend to cut. And I think it will.Definitely agree with the cut for the big dog.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
str8liner Posted Sunday at 02:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:27 PM Well driveway is a varitable skating rink after last night. Not sure what to do about it. Might have to find someone to spread salt on it. I don't have that much salt lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted Sunday at 02:35 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 02:35 PM 26 minutes ago, WmsptWx said: That sleet is damned hard to shovel. What a workout. We got just enough zr towards the end to put a crust on top that I can walk on. I'm going to have to get under it with an ice chopper to break it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted Sunday at 02:41 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:41 PM 37 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I'm riding 2-4" with 2" north of the turnpike up to 4" at the M/D line. I don't see any reason to change. If we want a big dog the week of 2/20 I think we want next weekend to cut. And I think it will. 2-4” would be fine not in the bullseye but good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted Sunday at 02:49 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:49 PM I have a metal roof on my house and porch roof. So during the sleet fest last night all that heavy sleet bounced of the roof and ended up in front of the house on the so called patio. About 4 inches of it. What a task to shovel it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted Sunday at 02:54 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:54 PM As I said before in the very late 70s or early 80s we had a storm on a Saturday that started out as sleet, and was forecast to change to rain. But it never changed over. I remember the sleet was 7 inches deep. Talk about a shoveling workout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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