Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[Voyager]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

@Voyager this is your revised WWA today. Now says up to 3 inches for you.

Maybe the HRRR “sniffed” it out, lol.

Maybe.

I thought it was on something, but perhaps it's on to something...

[Bubbler86]

13 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

I don’t think anyone should write off the Tuesday system just yet. North trends are notorious for a reason. 

Yea, pretty much everything has trended North (some trends only one run).  We are still fighting the "it previously showed 12-24"" letdown though. 

[mahantango#1]

21 this morning , got down to 18 here overnight.

[mahantango#1]

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 24. Been out of the loop a bit the last 24 hours but it seems we’re losing our Tuesday storm to those damn southerners again? Needing a north shift inside of 84 hours isn’t the worst spot to be in so I’ll hold out hope for at least a few inches. In the meantime, let’s see if we can snag a little over performer today. I wouldn’t mind seeing some sleet pile up. 

[paweather]

Is the MA forum going crazy for Tuesday. I haven’t and can’t check it. LOL

[Blizzard of 93]

8 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Low of 24. Been out of the loop a bit the last 24 hours but it seems we’re losing our Tuesday storm to those damn southerners again? Needing a north shift inside of 84 hours isn’t the worst spot to be in so I’ll hold out hope for at least a few inches. In the meantime, let’s see if we can snag a little over performer today. I wouldn’t mind seeing some sleet pile up. 

Good morning, I’m hoping a little over performer today as well.

Here’s the 12z HRRR for today.

[paweather]

17 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Good morning, I’m hoping a little over performer today as well.

Here’s the 12z HRRR for today.

That would be nice to see!

[Blizzard of 93]

Great forecast discussion from CTP for today’s event.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Quite a difficult forecast with PTYPE and intensity concerns
muddying the otherwise expected snow/ice gradient acrs our CWA
from NE to SW.

1027 mb sfc high was located over KIPT early today with light
and variable wind and gradually increasing high clouds streaming
in from the west. A perfect setup to maintain deep cold llvl
air prior to the arrival of precip.

The nose of a very strong low-mid lvl south to swrly jet over
60 kts will push up and over the steep southern and western
edge of the sfc cold dome, locked in across Central and Eastern
PA.

Temps starting out mainly between 10-20F with T/Td spreads of a
few to 10 deg F will set the stage for some vigorous UVVEL from
this LLJ (and possibly surprisingly heavy burst of snow) for
1-3 hours late this afternoon and evening with Max Wet Bulb
temps aloft only 0.5-1 deg C above freezing (in the 800-750 mb
layer with 900-875 mb temps as low as -6 to -7C) providing an
optimal setup for steep ascent for large snowflake aggregates
and potential 1-2 inch per hour rates from near or just east of
KUNV north and east to KIPT and KSEG.

An elevated unstable layer with mean 850-750 mb LIs near or just
below 0C will advance as far north as the RT22/322 corridor
during the mid to late evening hours with some thunder
snow/sleet expected across the SW third to half of the CWA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
Snow, heavy at times will be found across the NE third of the
CWA this evening with a gradually transition to a several hour
period of moderately heavy sleet across the region near and to
the SW of RT 322 from KFIG to KUNV and KMDT, while the depth of
degree of the elevated warm nose will support a lengthy period
of mainly FZRA further SW across the Laurel Highlands.

The occluded front moves through the region late tonight with
just some shallow strato cu and areas of light snow or fzdz
through the predawn hours.

Snow accums will range from 1 inch or less over the Laurels to
between 2-3 inches near the RT 322 corridor to between 3-4
inches with locally higher amounts possible across the higher
terrain near and to the North and East of KIPT.

Ice accums of 0.25-0.35 inch appear highly likely across the
Laurel Highlands.

Latest model guidance indicates most likely onset times of
wintry precip range from around 15Z south of the turnpike from
Somerset to Franklin counties, mid afternoon along the I-80
corridor and early evening over the northern tier counties.

[Blizzard of 93]

An elevated unstable layer with mean 850-750 mb LIs near or just
below 0C will advance as far north as the RT22/322 corridor
during the mid to late evening hours with some thunder
snow/sleet expected across the SW third to half of the CWA.

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

An elevated unstable layer with mean 850-750 mb LIs near or just
below 0C will advance as far north as the RT22/322 corridor
during the mid to late evening hours with some thunder
snow/sleet expected across the SW third to half of the CWA.

This was my favorite part….thunder chance!

[canderson]

It’ll be wild if see get more show today than next Tuesday - and that looks more and more feasible as hours pass. 

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, canderson said:

It’ll be wild if see get more show today than next Tuesday - and that looks more and more feasible as hours pass. 

Let’s take it one at a time.

Let’s hope we get 2 inches today & then go from there.

[mahantango#1]

 

 

 

 

 

 

The American Storm

 

@BigJoeBastardi

·

9h

 

 

gfs around state college goes from 40 inches on its 18z run to around 6 at 00z over nest 15 days. what a piece of garbage this model has been this winter

[ChescoWx]

Today will actually be our 10th winter event of the 2024-2025 season. While we have only added up to 15.1" of snow/sleet so far this season that is 77% of our average snow through today. For Team Snow if you are upset with our snow deficit this year....imagine if you lived in the upper Midwest. Here in Chester County, we have almost 40% more snow so far this winter season than both Minneapolis and Chicago? Today we should see snow arriving this afternoon quickly changing to sleet and then freezing rain. Driving this evening should be discouraged. We have a few more winter events in our future this week. However, the trend has been overall for less snow than earlier modeled. That said several inches of snow and sleet remain possible before the Friday morning rush hour. No doubt many forecast changes remain this week.

[GrandmasterB]

This is concerning for tonight on the 12Z NAM

[paweather]

4 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

This is concerning for tonight on the 12Z NAM

FZ Rain

[GrandmasterB]

4 minutes ago, paweather said:

FZ Rain

That’s total precip for the event. Some spots in the south barely over .1

[mahantango#1]

Looks like a short window of precip.

[WmsptWx]

41 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

The American Storm

 

@BigJoeBastardi

·

9h

 

 

gfs around state college goes from 40 inches on its 18z run to around 6 at 00z over nest 15 days. what a piece of garbage this model has been this winter

Garbage because it doesn't show 40 inches of snow? Sure. Let's call the most likely outcome "garbage."

 

Joe "Garbage" Bastardi.

[Ruin]

Actually seeing patches of blue sky temp 33

[Blizzard of 93]

31 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

This is concerning for tonight on the 12Z NAM

The latest HRRR & ICON have much more precip for the LSV for today.

[Ruin]

14 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Garbage because it doesn't show 40 inches of snow? Sure. Let's call the most likely outcome "garbage."

 

Joe "Garbage" Bastardi.

I think he means the dramatic change from 1 run to the next

[CarlislePaWx]

Hmmm...start time for me around 4:30 this afternoon and ending around 11:30pm?  That's 7 hours.  Actually, Thursday's storm did most of its "damage" in around 6 hours.  I hope CTP is right about that jet nose reaching up to 22 which puts Cumberland County in the "possible" zone for over performance.  We'll see.

[WmsptWx]

35 minutes ago, Ruin said:

I think he means the dramatic change from 1 run to the next

And I think he's garbage.

[Ruin]

28 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Hmmm...start time for me around 4:30 this afternoon and ending around 11:30pm?  That's 7 hours.  Actually, Thursday's storm did most of its "damage" in around 6 hours.  I hope CTP is right about that jet nose reaching up to 22 which puts Cumberland County in the "possible" zone for over performance.  We'll see.

Time for this keeps changing heard early on it was going to be lunch time today to like 4pm Sunday. My friend sent a notice he may cancel sb party. Then it was like 6pm today to like 11am sun now your saying only a 6 hour storm ?

[Blizzard of 93]

GFS ticked slightly north for the LSV for the Tuesday into Wednesday chance.

[Bubbler86]

Rain sleet mix and 35 in hagwerstown

[paweather]

27 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

GFS ticked slightly north for the LSV for the Tuesday into Wednesday chance.

On my phone what do the snow maps have for us Blizz?

[Itstrainingtime]

17 minutes ago, paweather said:

On my phone what do the snow maps have for us Blizz?

I can't post a map right now but it looks like the 2" line runs the southern half of the southern tier counties. About 1" up your way?