Bubbler86 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 I smell a namming coming in the next 24-48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I smell a namming coming in the next 24-48 hours agreed! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 From the Mt Holly discussion... There is a chance of warning level ice across parts of southeastern PA, with the highest odds across Chester and Montgomery Counties, but not confident in issuing any ice storm warnings yet, so capped ice below 1/4 inch for the time being. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Looks like I picked a good weekend to be in NYC…lets see how 3-5” of snow works out here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 23 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: agreed! 18Z Rgem may look even better for that far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 18Z Icon would go as far as suggesting here will be no "snow storm" next week focusing instead on the back end of the energy which would cut at least for part of its journey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 18Z Icon would go as far as suggesting here will be no "snow storm" next week focusing instead on the back end of the energy which would cut at least for part of its journey. North of DC loses with the Icon. But the Icon also says everybody's snow gets washed away, soooo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Just now, mitchnick said: North of DC loses with the Icon. But the Icon also says everybody's snow gets washed away, soooo... It is basically a nothing sandwich for people looking for a pure snow scenario. The lead wave is minored out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 The ICON is the ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 minutes ago, paweather said: The ICON is the ICON Looks like the gfs. Everything has trended south this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 The GFS is the GFS....mostly no for Tue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Just now, Rd9108 said: Looks like the gfs. Everything has trended south this year. As of now, the Icon has lead the way. Not over yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Just now, Rd9108 said: Looks like the gfs. Everything has trended south this year. Not everything but yes a lot has. Now it’s time to get into pissed mode lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 An MA special on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 minutes ago, paweather said: An MA special on the GFS "It will snow where it has snowed." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
str8liner Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 4 minutes ago, paweather said: An MA special on the GFS Oh, but the 16-17 storm shows promise!!! Till about the 14th lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Extremely valid! Honestly on the pure potential available in this pattern, with no post hoc rationalizing lucky scores I will take this February setup probably more than any other one since 2010, maybe before. 3.5" of qpf from 5 storm systems in 16 days with 80% of the time below freezing and highest temp basically 45-50 in Harrisburg for a few hours overnight before crashing hard due to a low bombing out by buffalo before realizing he went wrong way somehow appears off cape code 3 hours later. There is just so much opportunity with the quantity of systems, moisture, boundary position and oscillating, temperature profiles. With so many moving parts coming so often I'll take my chances at being lucky since a small scale chance e in some overlooked region can drastically alter our events without warning Let us remember back to our ultimate lucky moon shot in 2016 that although we we stocked at the crazy high numbers the models kept putting out, the whole weather community basically automatically cut everything in half if and called it a 1% Highend possibly. It had seemed to happen to other locals that whole winter and apartment row before that. So much so that the Ctp discussion 5 days before mentioned medium confidence in a 8-12" forcast. Here is horst probabilities 4 days before:January 19, 2006Here's my "probabilistic forecast" for LanCo--accounts for various uncertainties: 20% chc ofI believe 12-16" was forecast as snow began that evening. Pittsburgh people came over saying the waa hit like freight train. @Bubbler86 told everyone in a remark that he probably was laughing at for typing such absurdities that in 2 hours from 12-1 the HRRR was pasting the southern counties and lsv in something like 4-6" of snow in an hour due to waa. In the grisp of all our weenie fever we thought it was absurd. An inch maybe two an hour is damn near the limit for waa we figured, then 4"+ verified all over. I think I got up at 6am with 14" on the ground ecstatic because I figured we get hit 20" maybe 24". A couple hours later that route 81 deathband gave me 16" more in 4 hours with a few hours of moderate snow giving me a few more. I had thought nothing could top overshooting the high end snowfall forecast for all 3 storms in winter of 2010, but that did it. They all had last second changes that gave us winning lottery tickets. Each and every storm we have a chance at is another chance at one of those tickets hitting againSent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 I'm genuinely excited!This storm looked like a nothing burger for days. It was this past Thursday's storm only drier. We have had so many short term models fall on their face in the spring and summer this year we would refuse to believe any rain would occur when we had 70% plus chances. The other side of that I discovered were these areas with a 10% ending up with deluges from the blue. Let's cheer for nature giving us many changes for randomness to occurSent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Can I beg? Please. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 7 minutes ago, paweather said: Can I beg? Please. I think your very post is a beg so my approval was not needed! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 GFS IS A WEENIE DREAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 GFS IS A WEENIE DREAM.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 minute ago, Superstorm said: . Sign me up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 minute ago, paweather said: Sign me up! Sign Atomixx up. It snows where it snows. 4 footer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Sign Atomixx up. It snows where it snows. 4 footer. Orange we happy! P.s. sorta borrowed that from Bubbler 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 @Itstrainingtime I fully realize you are yearning even more snow maps but I am writing to tell you I am done for now so if you had Friday evening plans, let 'er rip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Another 18z GFS glacier run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 An MA special on the GFS Haha, then decides to pull a 2010 next Sunday on hour 216 then late two Thursday nights from now at hour 333. Both storms 12-18"Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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