Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[Bubbler86]

I smell a namming coming in the next 24-48 hours

 

[ChescoWx]

15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I smell a namming coming in the next 24-48 hours

 

 

agreed!

[ChescoWx]

From the Mt Holly discussion...
There is a chance of warning level ice across parts of southeastern PA, with the highest odds
across Chester and Montgomery Counties, but not confident in issuing any ice storm warnings yet, so capped ice below 1/4 inch
for the time being.

[Bubbler86]

[AccuChris]

Looks like I picked a good weekend to be in NYC…lets see how 3-5” of snow works out here


.

[Bubbler86]

23 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

agreed!

18Z Rgem may look even better for that far out. 

[Bubbler86]

18Z Icon would go as far as suggesting here will be no "snow storm" next week focusing instead on the back end of the energy which would cut at least for part of its journey. 

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

18Z Icon would go as far as suggesting here will be no "snow storm" next week focusing instead on the back end of the energy which would cut at least for part of its journey. 

North of DC loses with the Icon. 

But the Icon also says everybody's snow gets washed away, soooo...

[Bubbler86]

Just now, mitchnick said:

North of DC loses with the Icon. 

But the Icon also says everybody's snow gets washed away, soooo...

It is basically a nothing sandwich for people looking for a pure snow scenario.  The lead wave is minored out. 

[paweather]

The ICON is the ICON

[Rd9108]

2 minutes ago, paweather said:

The ICON is the ICON

Looks like the gfs. Everything has trended south this year. 

[Bubbler86]

The GFS is the GFS....mostly no for Tue. 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Rd9108 said:

Looks like the gfs. Everything has trended south this year. 

As of now, the Icon has lead the way.  Not over yet though. 

[paweather]

Just now, Rd9108 said:

Looks like the gfs. Everything has trended south this year. 

Not everything but yes a lot has. Now it’s time to get into pissed mode lol

[paweather]

An MA special on the GFS 

[WmsptWx]

2 minutes ago, paweather said:

An MA special on the GFS 

"It will snow where it has snowed."

[str8liner]

4 minutes ago, paweather said:

An MA special on the GFS 

Oh, but the 16-17 storm shows promise!!! 

Till about the 14th lol.

[Bubbler86]

[Jns2183]

Extremely valid! 

Honestly on the pure potential available in this pattern, with no post hoc rationalizing lucky scores I will take this February setup probably more than any other one since 2010, maybe before. 3.5" of qpf from 5 storm systems in 16 days with 80% of the time below freezing and highest temp basically 45-50 in Harrisburg for a few hours overnight before crashing hard due to a low bombing out by buffalo before realizing he went wrong way somehow appears off cape code 3 hours later. There is just so much opportunity with the quantity of systems, moisture, boundary position and oscillating, temperature profiles.

With so many moving parts coming so often I'll take my chances at being lucky since a small scale chance e in some overlooked region can drastically alter our events without warning

Let us remember back to our ultimate lucky moon shot in 2016 that although we we stocked at the crazy high numbers the models kept putting out, the whole weather community basically automatically cut everything in half if and called it a 1% Highend possibly. It had seemed to happen to other locals that whole winter and apartment row before that. So much so that the Ctp discussion 5 days before mentioned medium confidence in a 8-12" forcast.

Here is horst probabilities 4 days before:


January 19, 2006
Here's my "probabilistic forecast" for LanCo--accounts for various uncertainties: 20% chc of
I believe 12-16" was forecast as snow began that evening. Pittsburgh people came over saying the waa hit like freight train. @Bubbler86 told everyone in a remark that he probably was laughing at for typing such absurdities that in 2 hours from 12-1 the HRRR was pasting the southern counties and lsv in something like 4-6" of snow in an hour due to waa.

In the grisp of all our weenie fever we thought it was absurd. An inch maybe two an hour is damn near the limit for waa we figured, then 4"+ verified all over. I think I got up at 6am with 14" on the ground ecstatic because I figured we get hit 20" maybe 24". A couple hours later that route 81 deathband gave me 16" more in 4 hours with a few hours of moderate snow giving me a few more.

I had thought nothing could top overshooting the high end snowfall forecast for all 3 storms in winter of 2010, but that did it.

They all had last second changes that gave us winning lottery tickets.

Each and every storm we have a chance at is another chance at one of those tickets hitting again

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[Jns2183]

I'm genuinely excited!

This storm looked like a nothing burger for days. It was this past Thursday's storm only drier.

We have had so many short term models fall on their face in the spring and summer this year we would refuse to believe any rain would occur when we had 70% plus chances. The other side of that I discovered were these areas with a 10% ending up with deluges from the blue. Let's cheer for nature giving us many changes for randomness to occur

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[paweather]

11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Can I beg? Please.