Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[mahantango#1]

Whats the feelings on tomorrows mess? Will there be a little more snow or more sleet and freezing rain?

[Bubbler86]

GFS took away the Hecs.  Souther.  

[mahantango#1]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

GFS took away the Hecs.  Souther.  

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

To be fair there was still some snow but it was a WAA variety snow.   Strung out vs. a consolidated system.  

[mahantango#1]

10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

To be fair there was still some snow but it was a WAA variety snow.   Strung out vs. a consolidated system.  

Maybe it will reappear.

[DDweatherman]

Are you guys talking about the Tuesday storm? The euro has 6-8” for the LSV, UKMET pretty similar…

[Superstorm]

5 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Are you guys talking about the Tuesday storm? The euro has 6-8” for the LSV, UKMET pretty similar…

They were reacting to the GFS south solution.

[Jns2183]

I would love to see the close up snow amounts for the ensembles for this upcoming Sunday, Thursday, then normal end of run ones. A strong signal is definitely there. I just wonder how much of the end of run totals are due to Wednesday storm which has been pretty consistent over multiple runs of all the models.

It seems almost that with so damn much QPF headed this way each ensemble got to there amounts differently each run, but that bit of uncertainty was masked somewhat by the final totals being somewhat consistent. Who knows. It all may work out just due to how many chances keep getting thrown to us. I'm very confident in a nice moderate snowfall Tuesday to Wednesday. I'm praying the system after that doesn't bull rush lake Erie sending 60s to Massachusetts and 1.5" to 2" of rain to entire east coast. Euro had the snow from that pretty much confined to Toronto and West. That was the hecs the GFS lost.

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[Bubbler86]

11 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Are you guys talking about the Tuesday storm? The euro has 6-8” for the LSV, UKMET pretty similar…

The GFS lost 1-2 feet from when I saw it yesterday.  Nothing more than model discussion though. 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

The GFS lost 1-2 feet from when I saw it yesterday.  Nothing more than model discussion though. 

Maybe I shouldn’t weight the GFS the way I was, but it seemed an outlier solution to be even when we were in the big dog totals

[Voyager]

Just a thought, but with so many systems coming at us, I'm wondering if maybe we should have threads for each individual one.

[Superstorm]

2 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Just a thought, but with so many systems coming at us, I'm wondering if maybe we should have threads for each individual one.

I like that idea.

[Blizzard of 93]

5 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Maybe I shouldn’t weight the GFS the way I was, but it seemed an outlier solution to be even when we were in the big dog totals

The Euro has not wavered for the past day or two, run after run for Warning event for southern PA. UKMET steady too & Canadian has had a solid general idea.

I expect the GFS to fall back in line with getting southern PA into at least Warning level Tuesday totals.

After that, let’s take it one wave at a time.

[Bubbler86]

5 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Just a thought, but with so many systems coming at us, I'm wondering if maybe we should have threads for each individual one.

See you guys when you get back. 

[Blizzard of 93]

6z EPS looks good for Tuesday. Steady run after run…good thing to see with the best model.

[Blizzard of 93]

The overnight ensemble runs through day 15/16 continue to produce the unprecedented totals.

ALL 3 global ensembles

ALL Week

Run after run…

Stay buckled up!

[Voyager]

14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

See you guys when you get back. 

I guess you don't like the idea? It's ok. It was just a suggestion/thought. We don't have to do it. 

[ChescoWx]

One of the wintrier weeks of weather in several years is on tap for the area with 4 distinct storms with varying types of wintry precipitation. The first one arrive tomorrow afternoon as brief snow, sleet to freezing rain (ZR). This will be a colder event than yesterday with temperatures staying in the 20's for the entire event – maybe an inch or so of snow/sleet before the ZR. The 2nd event arrives on Tuesday and should be mainly snow....this has the potential to be a "plowable" event. More snow arrives Thursday morning, but it should change to sleet and freezing rain and possibly all rain before ending. The 4th event next weekend looks like it will be primarily rain.

[mahantango#1]

The temp went up to 39 overnight, now it went back down. And that wind awhile ago was gusty. I had a gust to 37.

[WmsptWx]

2 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I guess you don't like the idea? It's ok. It was just a suggestion/thought. We don't have to do it. 

Here's my opinion. 

It looks like the models are starting to establish a universe in which we get screwed on each and every single threat that's upcoming. For that alone I think individual threads is unnecessary. 

We just need to be careful when discussing which threat with which model run.

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I guess you don't like the idea? It's ok. It was just a suggestion/thought. We don't have to do it. 

I am just such a big poster, I could not keep up with other threads.  But not my call.  I can pull back.    If anything, though I do not feel it is needed, the board could split East to West -or- North/South. .   Sometimes I make the mistake of saying something that does not apply to much of the board and other people here do the same.  

[Itstrainingtime]

My personal take on potential snowfall/storms/snowfall maps/all things February related:

The original thought for the period of time from 2/3 through about 2/20 was that there would be a lot of different systems, each with differing likelihoods of wintry precip dependent on where the boundary set up during the time that each system impacted us. Many of those systems were pegged to be "mixed events" with some even being plain rain. As early as last week, the energy expected to arrive around the 2/11 - 2/13 timeframe held the best opportunity for an all snow event. And due to the lack of blocking, that system's ceiling was probably an SECS to perhaps a low-end MECS. The pattern really didn't (and still doesn't) support a crippling storm next week. It's not until after about 2/20 that the pattern MIGHT become more conducive to a larger system IF the expected blocking actually sets up. 

I feel like what we're seeing is pretty much right in line with what's been expected. Root for mid next week to deliver a solid snowfall here and then turn our attention towards perhaps something special, but not until the final days of the month. 

[Jns2183]

6z EPS looks good for Tuesday. Steady run after run…good thing to see with the best model.

That tuesday-wednesday time frame has been one of more impressive signals I've ever seen just do the fact it hasn't budged really from OP and ensemble models for last 5 maybe 6 days. Knock on wood it comes through as modeled in 4 days it would have given weenies 40 straight model runs of pleasure.

On a side note, I remember reading that the signal for the blizzard of 93 being a crazy HECS on all the models came so early was so off the charts in strength, and consistency that the scientists in charge of physics and mathematics of the models thought a fundamental error in the basic weather physics formula was the cause for a couple days cause for a couple days leading to a panicked goose hunt to locate it

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[Voyager]

22 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Here's my opinion. 

It looks like the models are starting to establish a universe in which we get screwed on each and every single threat that's upcoming. For that alone I think individual threads is unnecessary. 

We just need to be careful when discussing which threat with which model run.

21 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I am just such a big poster, I could not keep up with other threads.  But not my call.  I can pull back.    If anything, though I do not feel it is needed, the board could split East to West -or- North/South. .   Sometimes I make the mistake of saying something that does not apply to much of the board and other people here do the same.  

It's all good. I certainly don't want to ruffle any feathers as we have a great group of people here. It just gets confusing as to which storm is being talked about or which map goes to which storm.

[Itstrainingtime]

39 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

6z EPS looks good for Tuesday. Steady run after run…good thing to see with the best model.

I agree with you. I think we're going to do fairly well with this one. 

[paweather]

1 minute ago, Jns2183 said:

That tuesday-wednesday time frame has been one of more impressive signals I've ever seen just do the fact it hasn't budged really from OP and ensemble models for last 5 maybe 6 days. Knock on wood it comes through as modeled in 4 days it would have given weenies 40 straight model runs of pleasure.

On a side note, I remember reading that the signal for the blizzard of 93 being a crazy HECS on all the models came so early was so off the charts in strength, and consistency that the scientists in charge of physics and mathematics of the models thought a fundamental error in the basic weather physics formula was the cause for a couple days cause for a couple days leading to a panicked goose hunt to locate it

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I think Tues-Wed is the real deal it has been on the models for days! 12-18hr event. 

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, Voyager said:

It's all good. I certainly don't want to ruffle any feathers as we have a great group of people here. It just gets confusing as to which storm is being talked about or which map goes to which storm.

That is in many cases my fault :-)  (bolded)

[Itstrainingtime]

3 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

That tuesday-wednesday time frame has been one of more impressive signals I've ever seen just do the fact it hasn't budged really from OP and ensemble models for last 5 maybe 6 days. Knock on wood it comes through as modeled in 4 days it would have given weenies 40 straight model runs of pleasure.

On a side note, I remember reading that the signal for the blizzard of 93 being a crazy HECS on all the models came so early was so off the charts in strength, and consistency that the scientists in charge of physics and mathematics of the models thought a fundamental error in the basic weather physics formula was the cause for a couple days cause for a couple days leading to a panicked goose hunt to locate it

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You read accurate information regarding 1993.

It was uncanny - this was the timeframe of when the Weather Channel was actually a weather channel and a respected one at that. The entire week (storm was on a Saturday) they talked in absolutes that a 100 year storm was going to impact the entire eastern seaboard. For weather/snow weenies that was the best week in my lifetime. It was "must see" TV the entire week. I'll never forget it. 

There's a lot of good content on You Tube today for that storm. 

[Jns2183]

The overnight ensemble runs through day 15/16 continue to produce the unprecedented totals.
ALL 3 global ensembles
ALL Week
Run after run…
Stay buckled up!

What I would give to find access to the text output of the 15 daily snow totals of each ensemble for each run for last 7 days.

Can you post the qbf totals for each ensemble at runs end?

For us at least I think 35%, maybe more of those totals come Wednesday storm on there.

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[pasnownut]

5 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

Yes, but after Tuesday it wants to drive the low Thursday/Friday up to Buffalo which screws the pooch on the boundary.

Using 10-1 ratios it gives me
4.2" by 6z Wednesday 2/12 (hr 126 on the Oz)
4.9" by 6z Wednesday 2/19 (hr 296). So less than 1" in 7 days between.

Looking at total snowfall by 6z Wednesday 2/12 & 2/19 it's easy to calculate that's week snowfall over time. here are previous runs with associated total 10:1 snowfall

04/12z. 5.5". 8.2"
05/00z 15.6" 22.6"
05/12z 8.1 10.8"
06/00z 5.9" 6.1"
06/12z 2.9". 3.4"
07/00z 4.2" 4.9"

A quick look at the GFS total snow for Wednesday 2/19 at 6z has been consistent at close to 6" on 1.2" qpf till then. The issue with 0z once more it snows 1" more the next 8 days. Oh we get 1.5"-2" of qpf in those days just it's all a mix or rain. The GFS seems to have heaviest snow Tuesday and Wednesday around Richmond at times.

The ensembles have been amazing for all 3 big models. But after seeing the euro now trying to drag 60s to almost Boston Sunday, getting Lancaster to mid 50s while sending the low West of Pittsburgh I can see how this whole thing can go wrong.

I give it even odds kmdt sees 10" total for February

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Yeah, this has been on my mind as well.  Only thing we know is that we are locked and loaded for storms/qpf.  Still think Tues is out best shot, but theres alot to iron out after that.  I'm not sold on the cutter scenarios, but if strong enough and NAO slightly pos, it sure is a viable option....just not the preferred one.