Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[Blizzard of 93]

40 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

Why not


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Lol, why stop there, here’s the entire 18z GFS run through 384 hours…

[Blizzard of 93]

MDT recorded .1 of snow today.

[AccuChris]

While the 18z Euro only goes out to hour 144, it looks very similar to the 18z GFS, FWIW


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[Bubbler86]

49 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

#itstrainingtime

Capital post, Mike.  Feel a bit tired tonight so may take a Flyer on 0Z.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

I'm surprised that youre shocked.  CAD IS something we often do alright w/.  I'da taken the under bet yesterday when I saw low/mid 40's being advertised.  I already have a bit of refreeze going on in my back yard (icicles forming on shed roof).  

Yeah probably shouldn't have said shocked, as I’ve always touted the strength of CAD and how it gets under-modeled. Still, thought we’d at least get to upper 30s or 40, especially down my way, and that didn’t even happen. Even when you know its tendencies, CAD can still surprise ha. 

[Ruin]

Yeah we never got to the 44 high thry claimed. Overnight low said to be 32 it's 34 clouds fog. I don't think we get much lower then 32 tonight tho 

[canderson]

Next week looks quite epic. I hope we cash in on at least one of these storms. 

[Superstorm]

Euro at 144 looks like it would cut


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[paweather]

13 minutes ago, canderson said:

Next week looks quite epic. I hope we cash in on at least one of these storms. 

Definitely looks EPIC! 

[Superstorm]

Happy Solar Spring!


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[Mount Joy Snowman]

My .2” of sleet and ice accretion melted down to .49” liquid. You can all rest easy now.  

[Bubbler86]

14 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

My .2” of sleet and ice accretion melted down to .49” liquid. You can all rest easy now.  

I have not eaten a bite all day over my worry.

[canderson]

It is VERY foggy out 

[Bubbler86]

Still 41 here.  A mild one outside the CAD.

[Blizzard of 93]

1 hour ago, Superstorm said:

Euro at 144 looks like it would cut


.

It’s hard to say, but there is a good wall of Highs to the north that could steer the next wave enough for us to score another win.

[Yardstickgozinya]

2 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Looks like they gave you the keys to the HH GFS puter room....

 

Well done buddy.  Well done.

Yes that was pure insite and skill but these days  I use much more time tested and scientific forcasting method called shadow forcasting . You all might as well start referring to me as Punxsutawney Bill from here on out. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Just another day of epic 15 & 16 day ensemble runs by all 3 globals.

Day after day… run after run…

[paweather]

14 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

It’s hard to say, but there is a good wall of Highs to the north that could steer the next wave enough for us to score another win.

We are in for unforgettable next couple of weeks 

[Bubbler86]

18 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

Yes that was pure insite and skill but these days  I use much more time tested and scientific forcasting method called shadow forcasting . You all might as well start referring to me as Punxsutawney Bill from here on out.

Etters Eddie?  Fairview Frank?

[Blizzard of 93]

CTP has a great discussion on the weekend mix event & the 2 chances next week.

[Superstorm]

NAM insistent on giving us a few inches of snow before frozen junk.


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[Superstorm]

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[Blizzard of 93]

10 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

NAM insistent on giving us a few inches of snow before frozen junk.


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[Blizzard of 93]

The 0z GFS & Canadian both have different ways of getting it done with the multiple chances over the next 10 days.

Most of us wouldn’t complain if we are sitting on 8 to 10 inches of snow by next Sunday.

[Blizzard of 93]

28 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 0z GFS & Canadian both have different ways of getting it done with the multiple chances over the next 10 days.

Most of us wouldn’t complain if we are sitting on 8 to 10 inches of snow by next Sunday.

Here is the Ukie through 168 hours at the end of its run through next Thursday evening.

[Blizzard of 93]

0z Euro is steady as she goes for Tuesday’s chance.

[Jns2183]

0z Euro is steady as she goes for Tuesday’s chance.

Yes, but after Tuesday it wants to drive the low Thursday/Friday up to Buffalo which screws the pooch on the boundary.

Using 10-1 ratios it gives me
4.2" by 6z Wednesday 2/12 (hr 126 on the Oz)
4.9" by 6z Wednesday 2/19 (hr 296). So less than 1" in 7 days between.

Looking at total snowfall by 6z Wednesday 2/12 & 2/19 it's easy to calculate that's week snowfall over time. here are previous runs with associated total 10:1 snowfall

04/12z. 5.5". 8.2"
05/00z 15.6" 22.6"
05/12z 8.1 10.8"
06/00z 5.9" 6.1"
06/12z 2.9". 3.4"
07/00z 4.2" 4.9"

A quick look at the GFS total snow for Wednesday 2/19 at 6z has been consistent at close to 6" on 1.2" qpf till then. The issue with 0z once more it snows 1" more the next 8 days. Oh we get 1.5"-2" of qpf in those days just it's all a mix or rain. The GFS seems to have heaviest snow Tuesday and Wednesday around Richmond at times.

The ensembles have been amazing for all 3 big models. But after seeing the euro now trying to drag 60s to almost Boston Sunday, getting Lancaster to mid 50s while sending the low West of Pittsburgh I can see how this whole thing can go wrong.

I give it even odds kmdt sees 10" total for February

Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

[Jns2183]

At 12z on Wednesday 2/12 we are sitting at 6" of snow on 1.6" QPF

At 0z on Friday 2/21 we are at 6.1" of snow on 3.7" QPF

Haha, what's even worse is that those 2 dates are 204 hours apart. We are forecast to be below freezing 171 of those hours or more than 80%.

That model run was pure nightmare fuel

Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

[mahantango#1]

[Blizzard of 93]

6z Euro remains steady with a Warning snow event Tuesday for southern PA.