Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[Bubbler86]

Moral of the 18Z GFS.  Snow wise, we better cash in that early week storm next week.    Trend has been for the boundary to be a bit farther NW than a few days ago. 

[Superstorm]

Moral of the 18Z GFS.  Snow wise, we better cash in that early week storm next week.    Trend has been for the boundary to be a bit farther NW than a few days ago. 

That’ll change again. But you always want to cash in early.


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[canderson]

Apple weather is officially drunk

[Itstrainingtime]

30.9 at 7:25pm. Dewpoint is 16.6

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

30.9 at 7:25pm. Dewpoint is 16.6

34/21 here.  Sleet or bust over here.

[AccuChris]

30/18 in Lebanon presently


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[Itstrainingtime]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

34/21 here.  Sleet or bust over here.

If Elliott is correct you will have double to triple the amount of freezing rain compared to me.

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

30/18 in Lebanon presently


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What are you thinking? Snow quickly changing to sleet heavy at times?

[canderson]

33/14 in the city. 

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

If Elliott is correct you will have double to triple the amount of freezing rain compared to me.

Freezing rain at 30 or 31 is just cold rain.

[AccuChris]

What are you thinking? Snow quickly changing to sleet heavy at times?

Its a tough call. Typically, the warm nose is under-modeled but the low level cold is always modeled too warm during the event. The latest HRRR paints more freezing rain than sleet and no snow. I think any snow is short-lived and maybe 1/2” of sleet then 0.2” of freezing rain. Looks to he pushing out of the area around 10am.


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[paweather]

1 minute ago, AccuChris said:

Its a tough call. Typically, the warm nose is under-modeled but the low level cold is always modeled too warm during the event. The latest HRRR paints more freezing rain than sleet and no snow. I think any snow is short-lived and maybe 1/2” of sleet then 0.2” of freezing rain. Looks to he pushing out of the area around 10am.


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Yeah CTP thinking sleet but I agree the warm nose will play a big factor. Thanks man.

[mitchnick]

I wish I had a better idea what the heck is going to happen next week snow-wise.

[paweather]

[Bubbler86]

Latest maps of Dp's.  Fairly uniformed even to the south.  Temps are the difference in the southwest.

 

[paweather]

Just now, mitchnick said:

I wish I had a better idea what the heck is going to happen next week snow-wise.

24-36” my prediction 

[mitchnick]

Just now, paweather said:

24-36” my prediction 

Great forecast for all of NE.

[paweather]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Great forecast for all of NE.

Love it! LOL

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, paweather said:

I've always wondered who the hell came up with the color scheme on WxBell snowfall maps. Once you hit 10", it gets real hard to differentiate through the shades.

[Blizzard of 93]

17 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Freezing rain at 30 or 31 is just cold rain.

There will be tons of issues tomorrow.

This should not be downplayed.

[Bubbler86]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I've always wondered who the hell came up with the color scheme on WxBell snowfall maps. Once you hit 10", it gets real hard to differentiate through the shades.

That is wxmodels :-) 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

There will be tons of issues tomorrow.

This should not be downplayed.

I doubt there will be over here (unless it is a sleet bomb).    But that is par for the course with FRZ here, you guys are in a different world with CAD. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Also with the low dew points, temps will fall when steady precipitation begins.

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

That is wxmodels :-) 

But we should throw out Weatherbell maps because they are not the precious Pivotal maps… Lol!

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

But we should throw out Weatherbell maps because they are not the precious Pivotal maps… Lol!

I posted two wxbell maps today stolen from the MA :-) 

[Blizzard of 93]

1 hour ago, Superstorm said:

That’ll change again. But you always want to cash in early.


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Exactly! I think the Tuesday/Wednesday wave is coming into better focus. I like the Warning level snow potential for much of CTP.

Beyond that, stay tuned. 50 to 100 miles will make a difference on where the boundary sets up.
 

[Blizzard of 93]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I posted two wxbell maps today stolen from the MA :-) 

Wow, you are turning over a new leaf, Lol!

[paweather]

14 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Wow, you are turning over a new leaf, Lol!

Looking forward to tomorrow first. I hope all people can work from home to stay safe.

[Summit Snow]

19 currently with a dew of 10. They have highlighted more snow and then sleet up here. 2-3"

[canderson]

CTP has taken nearly all zr out of my grid

Tonight

Snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 4am, then snow and sleet. The sleet could be heavy at times. Low around 29. Calm wind becoming southeast 5 to 9 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Total nighttime snow and sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible. 

Thursday

Rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet before noon, then a chance of rain between noon and 3pm. The sleet could be heavy at times. High near 42. Southeast wind 5 to 9 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.