Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[paweather]

6 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I'm on a medical leave of absence from work, so in that respect, i want to say "let it rip'. Flip side of that, though, is that my neighbor who used to help me clear snow is one that didn't approve of my going to AZ to help my mom, so now he doesn't help me, so all the snow removal for 2 properties and 3 vehicles is on me. That part makes me wish this wasn't coming.

Tough one wish I was close to you I would help for sure. Hang in there the next 15 days.  I know I have been calling for winter to show up in these parts for a couple of years, just take it slow and do as you can. 

[AccuChris]

Latest HRRR putting down quite a bit of snow tonight


.

[ChescoWx]

A busy wintry period of weather with 3 impactful winter events over the next 6 days. The first arrives late tonight with a brief snow to sleet to freezing rain. Several models show around 0.30" of ZR across Western Chester County which could result in slippery travel and power outages with that much ice. We get a break tomorrow afternoon through most of Saturday before snow arrives again on Saturday night before transitioning again to a messy mix before ending by Sunday morning. Snow may arrive again later Monday night and last until Tuesday.

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

27/24 here with very light snow. 

You need to set this guy straight!

@MUweather

There appears to be a band of snow extending from northern DE through the southern-tier counties of PA, but it’s all virga (precip that evaporates before reaching the ground) due to dry air in the low-levels of the atmosphere. It’s why I haven’t mentioned precip till this eve.

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

You need to set this guy straight!

@MUweather

There appears to be a band of snow extending from northern DE through the southern-tier counties of PA, but it’s all virga (precip that evaporates before reaching the ground) due to dry air in the low-levels of the atmosphere. It’s why I haven’t mentioned precip till this eve.

He is probably not accounting for the mountains plus I am not really in his forecast area.   It may be virga down at 400-500 feet but not up at 800-1000.    We are at 80-90% humidity up here.   It has moved out for now though.  

[paweather]

21 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

Latest HRRR putting down quite a bit of snow tonightTha


.

That would be great to get a fresh layer and then a packing sleet bomb

[sauss06]

Just now, paweather said:

That would be great to get a fresh layer and then a packing sleet bomb

does anyone remember how much snow we got during the Vday shit show of 2007, before it turned to sleet and freezing rain? i was thinking 2-3"

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

does anyone remember how much snow we got during the Vday shit show of 2007, before it turned to sleet and freezing rain? i was thinking 2-3".  

MDT reported about 6" though they count sleet as snow. Check out those highs in the teens on this day back then. 

 

[Voyager]

25 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

does anyone remember how much snow we got during the Vday shit show of 2007, before it turned to sleet and freezing rain? i was thinking 2-3"

I wish I could remember the exact numbers, but we had a decent period of snow before the sleet assault (perhaps 4 inches). Then I'd say we got another 2 inches of sleet before a crazy 2 hour warm-up where we went plain rain and a temp spike to 40 degrees. All that frozen soaked up the rain like a sponge, and then we went flash freeze with a flip back to heavy snow for a couple hours before it ended. That 2 hours of rain on top of the snow and sleet, followed by the flash freeze, was what set up the I-78 and I-81 disasters.

[Bubbler86]

RGEM gets sleet going in the LSV and South PA sometime between 1-7AM then a large majority of the precip is tomorrow AM after daylight.   Sleet transitions to light freezing rain 10amish.   Does get the highs from 45-55 in south PA tomorrow. 

 

Icon still most frz but precip out of the area earlier tomorrow....highs 35-45 in South PA. 

 

Fv3 has most of the LSV just plan rain by 10AM tomorrow...after some light snow/rain over night transitioning to several hours of sleet and frz starting before daylight and continuing to the rain transition. 

[Bubbler86]

Icon prepping

 

 

[Bubbler86]

[canderson]

26 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

RGEM gets sleet going in the LSV and South PA sometime between 1-7AM then a large majority of the precip is tomorrow AM after daylight.   Sleet transitions to light freezing rain 10amish.   Does get the highs from 45-55 in south PA tomorrow. 

 

Icon still most frz but precip out of the area earlier tomorrow....highs 35-45 in South PA. 

 

Fv3 has most of the LSV just plan rain by 10AM tomorrow...after some light snow/rain over night transitioning to several hours of sleet and frz starting before daylight and continuing to the rain transition. 

[ChescoWx]

Hoping the NAM is drunk again as while it has almost no snow for anyone in PA it does have quite a bit of sleet followed by ZR - up to 1/3 inch of ice for my area would be far from swell.....

[Bubbler86]

Saturday evening at 7PM on the GFS.  Decent snow coming for far NE PA

 

[paweather]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Saturday evening at 7PM on the GFS.  Decent snow coming for far NE PA

 

That H is in a great spot

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, paweather said:

That H is in a great spot

Just not cold enough coming in for much snow here.  Another ice event.   Low gets up to SW PA. 

[paweather]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Just not cold enough coming in for much snow here.  Another ice event.   Low gets up to SW PA. 

yeah understood. Hope storm 3 is snow. 

[Bubbler86]

Mon event still south of our forum 

 

 

[paweather]

looks like Monday is south of us. 

[Bubbler86]

The icon system is south on the GFS.  Too many vorts to have confidence in any solution that far out.

 

[Bubbler86]

The one system a day continues as something is gathering Wed

 

[Bubbler86]

[pasnownut]

54 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Icon prepping

 

 

 

nooner GFS is about to go whole hog at 174.  Verbatim that has crowd pleaser written all over it.

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

nooner GFS is about to go whole hog at 174.  Verbatim that has crowd pleaser written all over it.

Blizz is running through his Office right now...asking for anyone who has internet not filtered by Corp.

 

[Bubbler86]

This storm is a NE part of the nation disruptor.   TUCK!

[paweather]

Next Thursday we get pummeled 

[Bubbler86]

Snowfall map shows how tight it was in the end

 

[pasnownut]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Blizz is running through his Office right now...asking for anyone who has internet not filtered by Corp.

 

 

I'll add that there are notable SLP "adjustments" ongoing opp #4 for mid next week, so reminding all weenies to keep it in your pants, and just make tents for now.  

[pasnownut]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Snowfall map shows how tight it was in the end

 

 

 SLP/qpf didnt tick N, it triple jumped.  Not gonna say toss it, but just add to the pile of solutions possible.  Was notably further S in last 2 runs, so theres that.