Bubbler86 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 5 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: The question isn't the surface there, it's the 925mb which @MAG5035 has a much better hold on than me. I truthfully could see us getting a nice little glacier going with all 3 types which than flows into colder temps Friday night and more icing than forecast before rain Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk I think it is assumed surface will be cold enough. Once CAD breaks it will topple quickly (unless it does not). Next one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Huge totals on 18Z GFS!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Bring it on lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 I think it is assumed surface will be cold enough. Once CAD breaks it will topple quickly (unless it does not). Next one 3 storms in 5 days or 6 days?Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Pineapple Express east coast version Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Just now, Jns2183 said: 3 storms in 5 days or 6 days? Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk 5 storms in 10 days (not all snow and one south) or if you start with Feb 11 then 3 storms in 5 days, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 I think it is assumed surface will be cold enough. Once CAD breaks it will topple quickly (unless it does not). Next one I don't think the surface will topple until the precipitation is almost all through. At least up here in the Cumberland valley near Harrisburg Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 5 storms in 10 days (not all snow and one south) or if you start with Feb 11 then 3 storms in 5 days, yes. My gut says this is what we've been waiting 5 plus years for, haha Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 The “RELAX” Pattern is loaded!Let’s get set the spark to get it going!. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 43 minutes ago, AccuChris said: Bring it on lol . It moved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 It moved If we can get a 6" plus 10" storm out of this plus a bunch of sleet and ice we can get a nice glacier pack that will push the boundary south for March funSent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 StreamflowSent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Snowfall % of averageSent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: Below freezing about 850 and down during the GFS sleet storm Looks pretty shallow to me. I’d wager zr with some pingers if qpf is stoudt enough. I’d like that freezing a little closer to the 700s for a pingerfest. Regardless looking icy for a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, Jns2183 said: 24 hours ago my forecast high was 55. I made it to 43 today Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk Yeah busted over here as well. I saw 45 on digi car thermo at 330. Forecast was for low 50’s. Cad baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: I think it is assumed surface will be cold enough. Once CAD breaks it will topple quickly (unless it does not). Next one WOW!!! Active Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Hold on…..calling @Blizzard of 93 pick up the phone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 22 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Yeah busted over here as well. I saw 45 on digi car thermo at 330. Forecast was for low 50’s. Cad baby. Nws zone says low of 39 at Harrisburg tonight. Currently 36. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 11 minutes ago, paweather said: Hold on…..calling @Blizzard of 93 pick up the phone He might need the paddles to restart his heart 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, Jns2183 said: My question is when have forecast last overdone CAD in a situation like this Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk It’s rare. If we start out with temps in the upper 20’s when the precip arrives it’s difficult to dislodge historically. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 3 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: It’s rare. If we start out with temps in the upper 20’s when the precip arrives it’s difficult to dislodge historically. The question is, if it raining at 29 or 30 during daytime in Feb, are there any real issues? 30ish is pretty high for freezing rain during the day. Sleet bomb is a total different story. That will readily lay at 30ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The question is, if it raining at 29 or 30 during daytime in Feb, are there any real issues? 30ish is pretty high for freezing rain during the day. Sleet bomb is a total different story. That will readily lay at 30ish. Yeah, great question. That’s why I enjoy tracking ice storms. They can be tricky because heavy rain at 30 degrees doesn’t do a lot. Pretty much just runs off before it can accrete. But an 80/20 mix of freezing rain and sleet coming down light or moderate at 28 degrees can by highly impactful. We’ve witnessed busts in both directions with these set-ups. A lot of nuance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 5 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Yeah, great question. That’s why I enjoy tracking ice storms. They can be tricky because heavy rain at 30 degrees doesn’t do a lot. Pretty much just runs off before it can accrete. But an 80/20 mix of freezing rain and sleet coming down light or moderate at 28 degrees can by highly impactful. We’ve witnessed busts in both directions with these set-ups. A lot of nuance. Yea, another good point. Heavy vs light rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 We haven't had a good true ice storm in forever here. I don't think this one will be a damaging one so I'm going to let myself get excited for it. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 He might need the paddles to restart his heart Maybe he's resting up since he won't be sleeping much next week with 3 storms in 5 daysSent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: We haven't had a good true ice storm in forever here. I don't think this one will be a damaging one so I'm going to let myself get excited for it. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk I said that earlier I’m ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 49 minutes ago, paweather said: Hold on…..calling @Blizzard of 93 pick up the phone Hi! Long day at work & some early offseason indoor practice for my daughter’s softball team this evening. I’m just getting caught up on the 18z run & wow, what another glorious run. So much potential… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Hi! Long day at work & some early offseason indoor practice for my daughter’s softball team this evening. I’m just getting caught up on the 18z run & wow, what another glorious run. So much potential… So much potential softball is starting late this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Pretty big difference between 12k and 3k 18z Nams for Wednesday. Wonder if they agree at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 18z GEFS with yet another impressive run for the 16 day period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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