Blizzard of 93 Posted Monday at 04:10 AM Share Posted Monday at 04:10 AM 36 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Icon and rgem are significant ice storms for LSV folks GFS too…building consensus for an icy Thursday am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Monday at 04:46 AM Share Posted Monday at 04:46 AM 0z GFS & Canadian still have a snow chance early next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted Monday at 05:03 AM Share Posted Monday at 05:03 AM Do we get ice storm warning or just a winter advisory Thursday?Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted Monday at 06:21 AM Share Posted Monday at 06:21 AM 1 hour ago, Jns2183 said: Do we get ice storm warning or just a winter advisory Thursday? Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk Certainly the QPF involved in most of the models would imply a winter/ice storm warning in potentially a sizeable swath of central PA is on the table depending on the makeup of the p-types. Surface temps hold near or below freezing for most of the event in a lot of CTP, including even the LSV seeing several hours. Significant 850mb level WAA push early in the event would make any snow brief and set up for trying to figure out how the business end of the precip event plays out in terms of sleet vs ZR. Euro showing more of a straight freezing rain on it’s p-types but 925mb temps, which doesn’t get routed out as fast are quite cold and I would think reality would have a period of sleet involved more like what the 0z NAM/GFS/RGEM are implying. Either way I’m seeing enough support right now to think winter storm watches may be needed in the 80 and south counties of C-PA, save for maybe Adam’s/York/Lancaster. The north central counties well north of I-80 need 0.5” or more for an ice storm warning and given varying precip types and potentially less QPF overall they probably wouldn’t verify that higher criteria. Biggest overall ice accumulation threat would reside in the eastern Laurels and the more immediately adjacent ridges off the Allegheny Front where the 925 temps would rout out quickest. Could be talking 0.5”+ of ice accrual there. I think overall it’s a pretty sizeable icing threat. CTP notes it in their disco and HWO. And it looks like we do a similar setup again for the weekend, so fortunately the temps warm up briefly in between events. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted Monday at 11:10 AM Share Posted Monday at 11:10 AM Traffic accident extravaganza down this way this morning. 14 right now on the 911 Incident list. Be careful out there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted Monday at 12:07 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:07 PM I am driving to work and back roads are literally a sheet of ice. Don’t recommend going anywhere if you don’t have to. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Monday at 12:22 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:22 PM MDT recorded .2 snow officinally yesterday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Monday at 12:28 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:28 PM After the two icy mix chances this week, the 6z GFS has 2 significant snow chances next week. These chances keep showing up day after day for this period on OPs & ensembles. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Monday at 12:30 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:30 PM Euro has 1 significant snow chance next week mid next week as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted Monday at 12:32 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:32 PM 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: After the two icy mix chances this week, the 6z GFS has 2 significant snow chances next week. These chances keep showing up day after day for this period on OPs & ensembles. Bring it on and hope they cripple the region with heavy wet snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Monday at 12:32 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:32 PM For entertainment purposes, check out the 6z GFS total snow map after the second chance later next week. Beyond drool worthy… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted Monday at 12:36 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:36 PM For entertainment purposes, check out the 6z GFS total snow map after the second chance later next week. Beyond drool worthy…Yes it is. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted Monday at 12:43 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:43 PM MDT recorded .2 snow officinally yesterday.I'll take whatever 06z GFS is takingSent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted Monday at 01:06 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:06 PM Low of 26 here with .1" of snow/sleet. Looks like a couple of ice storms to contend with on Thu/Sat. The best part of ice storms is getting to view all the wildly overdone pink model maps. What really has my attention is the middle of next week, quite intriguing. Fun tracking times ahead! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Monday at 02:03 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:03 PM Finished with .2" of snow and sleet last evening. It's been a crazy morning in the office... Had a team member involved in an accident earlier - she's going to be okay, her car is as she described to me via Teams is finished. Personally, I slid multiple times on my way in to work and I was driving VERY defensively. As others have mentioned, back roads (even some significantly traveled roads around here) were awful. Which raises this question: WHY...why was the Donegal School District (and others, I presume) not on a delayed opening this morning? I really don't like to question other's decisions, this seems baffling. I thought road conditions were worse today than in at least the past several years. I don't understand. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Monday at 02:08 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:08 PM MU Weather Center Due in large part to the #ArcticOutbreak from Jan. 20-24, #January2025 concluded as the coldest winter month (DJF) at@millersvilleu since January 2018. Despite above-average snowfall (11.1"), it was the 6th-driest January on record at the 'Ville. That's maximizing snowfall potential in that data. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted Monday at 02:13 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:13 PM 9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Finished with .2" of snow and sleet last evening. It's been a crazy morning in the office... Had a team member involved in an accident earlier - she's going to be okay, her car is as she described to me via Teams is finished. Personally, I slid multiple times on my way in to work and I was driving VERY defensively. As others have mentioned, back roads (even some significantly traveled roads around here) were awful. Which raises this question: WHY...why was the Donegal School District (and others, I presume) not on a delayed opening this morning? I really don't like to question other's decisions, this seems baffling. I thought road conditions were worse today than in at least the past several years. I don't understand. Ive been in New Hampshire that last 2 weeks, but was there even a Winter Weather Advisory put out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Monday at 02:21 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:21 PM 6 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Ive been in New Hampshire that last 2 weeks, but was there even a Winter Weather Advisory put out? No...I think there was a Special Weather Statement issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted Monday at 02:22 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:22 PM It was egregious. Open your eyes and stop waiting for the media to hype before you make a call. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted Monday at 02:23 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:23 PM I work from home Mondays so haven't even walked outside but the trash guys were slipping and sliding this morning. Thursday looks interesting. Been a while since we had an ice event of .25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted Monday at 02:28 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:28 PM 7 minutes ago, canderson said: I work from home Mondays so haven't even walked outside but the trash guys were slipping and sliding this morning. Thursday looks interesting. Been a while since we had an ice event of .25". I was just talking about the V-day Ice storm we had (sorry i forget year) and what a cluster that was. Snow, sleet then frz rain. When all the vehicles were stranded on 78. Were you living here then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted Monday at 02:31 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:31 PM Our 0.3" of snow/sleet and then some freezing fog this morning resulted in multiple 2-hour school delays this morning. This week looks to feature significant fluctuations in temperatures with highs near 50 degrees today and again on Thursday.....but more snow, sleet, freezing rain and plain rain in our future starting on Wednesday afternoon and into Thursday morning. We may get to do the whole wintry mess all over again come Saturday later in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted Monday at 02:34 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:34 PM 8 minutes ago, sauss06 said: I was just talking about the V-day Ice storm we had (sorry i forget year) and what a cluster that was. Snow, sleet then frz rain. When all the vehicles were stranded on 78. Were you living here then? 2007. We had just moved here a few months before and that was our first winter storm. What an experience and life-lesson learned that was. Our car got stuck in our alley for 2 days (we back into our garage and it got stuck into ginormous ice ruts) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted Monday at 02:58 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:58 PM The first model run of the day the 12z NAM which is a bit out of it's range has temperatures here at the surface staying below freezing all day Wednesday and through around 8 or 9am on Thursday. While that is happening warmer air will be moving in above us at around 5k feet. Meaning by about 4am on Thursday morning temperatures will be well above freezing where snow is made. This means whatever falls after that time will be some form of non-snow meaning sleet or freezing rain. Then it will be a race to see how we get the surface to warm for plain rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted Monday at 03:00 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:00 PM The first model run of the day the 12z NAM which is a bit out of it's range has temperatures here at the surface staying below freezing all day Wednesday and through around 8 or 9am on Thursday. While that is happening warmer air will be moving in above us at around 5k feet. Meaning by about 4am on Thursday morning temperatures will be well above freezing where snow is made. This means whatever falls after that time will be some form of non-snow meaning sleet or freezing rain. Then it will be a race to see how we get the surface to warm for plain rain. That's a @Bubbler86 special Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 03:06 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:06 PM 10 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: That's a @Bubbler86 special Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk Tad north of me. Close but probably no snow for me in that map...or somewhere between.1 and .4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted Monday at 03:14 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:14 PM 27 and Cloudy here with a fresh layer of snow for at least half of the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted Monday at 03:32 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:32 PM My .1" of glacial slop melted down to .04 liquid. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted Monday at 03:57 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:57 PM Colder run of the GFS for Thursday. Temps in the upper 20’s with sleet/freezing rain. Interesting to see if that holds or not. 28 vs. 31 makes a pretty big difference as precip is falling. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted Monday at 04:08 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:08 PM 3 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Colder run of the GFS for Thursday. Temps in the upper 20’s with sleet/freezing rain. Interesting to see if that holds or not. 28 vs. 31 makes a pretty big difference as precip is falling. Ice Storm Watch??? Breaks in OVC with blue patches beginning to appear. Sun not out quite yet but soon. Temp has crawled above freezing to 33.1 after a low overnight of 22.6 F. There must have been a period of cleared skies to allow that cold of a low with a few hours of radiation. Already a tiny bit of crazy. Also, I have determined that the majority of my precip last night was not freezing rain, but rather sleet. There had to be some freezing rain because the sleet is stuck together. I think I'm going to record 0.2" of sleet/snow for yesterday. I'll have the melt down shortly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now