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Central PA Winter 2024/2025


Voyager
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22 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

This pattern for next week reminds me of what I remember when I was in high school in the Winter of 94.

That would be extraordinary. I have so much I want to add, but due to being ridiculoued in the past by guys, that would skydive into the right entrance reagion of a jet streak I don't want to anymore.

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2 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

✳️ALERT ✳️ 2nd HALF OF WINTER LOOKING SERIOUS ...POSSIBLY SEVERE ...

 

➡️ Do NOT be fooled by this mild across much of the eastern CONUS FEB 3-9 ⬅️

 

MORE DETAILS IN THE NEW EDITION OF THE NEXT 3 WEEKS NEWSLETTER ON MONDAY

 

There is no doubt now that the PV - Polar Vortex IS going to undergo a significant stretching and potentially SPLIT into 2 sections. Some of the models split the PV into two distinct centers while others elongated the PV and then bring it back into an oval or elliptical shape (as opposed to a tight closed Circular PV) by the end of February.

 

In either case it represents a significant change so AFTER THIS WEEK FEB 3 -9 of Spring like conditions in the eastern US, there is no doubt in my mind that the winter is going to come roaring back sometime after February 9/10.

 

Indeed the last two runs of the operational European are picking up on two different threats in the Middle Atlantic and Ohio valley.   

 

First it is Rain changing to snow behind the strong cold front on February 9/10 in MD DEL most of VA eastern KY and eastern WV.  

 

This is followed by a potentially major Ohio Valley /Mid-Atlantic snowstorm on February 11- 12. Interestingly this event has shown up now in the last three runs of the operational European.

 

The change is driven that the -EPO (aka the ALASKAN BLOCK ) that which is currently in the western Alaska. As the PV begins to split... the BLOCK/ -EPO shifts eastward so that it builds into NW Canada by next weekend. At the same time the North Atlantic Ridge over Great Britain builds West into Iceland and Greenland by day 10 resulting in a very strong -NAO/ - AO combination or couplet. (East Coast snow lovers rejoice) 

 

These two changes force a steady shift of the strong Ridge in the eastern US into the western Atlantic by February 14.

 

But even more impressive is the fact that there is quite a bit of model data that suggests the Alaskan nw t Canada BLOCK/ -EPO is going to build into the Arctic region at the same time the Greenland Ridge - NAO intensifies and expands. 

 

This creates what is known as LINKAGE and it would force the entire PV far to the south that possibly as south as James Bay Canada.! Brrrrrr  

 

This would trigger another prolonged and significant Arctic air mass outbreak much like we saw in January developing across the central and eastern CONUS mainly north of Interstate 40 by the middle of February.

Wow...what a change from DT's 2nd half of winter video from 1/30.  Although, he did imply that beginning around Feb 20th and until around March 20th there was a good chance that winter would return in force.  So, it's just sped up 7-10 days sooner.

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I've only within the past 15 minutes caught up reading all of this afternoon's post.  I had no idea people were getting snow/sleet.  I never saw anything falling through sunset.  I guess it must have started right after that.  Actually, right here I have a solid coating of ice all over my car, and it's lumpy ice.  That implies that sleet was falling with the freezing rain.  Upon further inspection I can see the coating all over my driveway.  There might have been a small bit of snow but it really had to be primarily freezing rain mixed with sleet.  Temperature a few hours ago was in the upper 20's, and has risen to the high of the day at 31.3, but now has dropped back slightly to 30.9.

I can certainly understand all the accidents.  Temps were in the mid teens this morning throughout the region.  I don't think there was freezing rain potential mentioned in this morning's forecast, was there?  Instant black ice with virtually no warning.  As bad as running head on into a snow squall.

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45 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Wow...what a change from DT's 2nd half of winter video from 1/30.  Although, he did imply that beginning around Feb 20th and until around March 20th there was a good chance that winter would return in force.  So, it's just sped up 7-10 days sooner.

This is a different kind of winter as compared to maybe the previous 5 . It wouldn't take much to make this an epic 2nd half of winter. A good snowstorm, a good icestorm and near record cold.

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