Voyager Posted Sunday at 06:37 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 06:37 PM 31 minutes ago, anotherman said: I know he knows what he’s talking about, but the “sadly“ is so pathetic. Go live somewhere else if you don’t like winter. That's easier said than done. If I want to escape my winter misery, I have to divorce my wife because she isn't going anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Sunday at 06:40 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:40 PM 1 minute ago, Voyager said: That's easier said than done. If I want to escape my winter misery, I have to divorce my wife because she isn't going anywhere. It won't last forever, so you've got that going for you. And we all know we can do warm just fine around here, though your area takes a little longer to defrost than down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted Sunday at 06:48 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:48 PM 12 Euro EPS is still very aggressive in a snowy period the next 2 weeks. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Sunday at 06:52 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:52 PM 40 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol & he said “in March” when we are staring at potentially multiple events in the next 2 weeks… I thought it was interesting too. Though, the next couple of weeks might not produce. Regardless, it won't be boring! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Sunday at 06:55 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:55 PM 49 minutes ago, anotherman said: I know he knows what he’s talking about, but the “sadly“ is so pathetic. Go live somewhere else if you don’t like winter. Paul Knight (from Weather World fame) might be the most accurate forecaster I know of in my lifetime. He lives just outside of State College. He HATES cold weather with a passion. It's interesting how some of the people we look up to in forecasting aren't anything like we are. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Sunday at 06:57 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:57 PM 32 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: He said something about wall to wall warmer/not cold for Feb, just going from other posts, so he is not going to like how that has changed. March is too far out to be guesstimating IMO. He said he's leaning warm for February with multiple cold shots. I think we were talking about this last week. "Setbacks" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Sunday at 07:50 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:50 PM brooklynwx99 Posted 14 minutes ago cold and active. love to see it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Sunday at 07:50 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:50 PM 49 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: He said he's leaning warm for February with multiple cold shots. I think we were talking about this last week. "Setbacks" I went back and looked and it was actually not him, it was this post and interpretation so sorry if I suggested it was him. I actually did not read what he said at that point in Jan to suggest your take on but my thought is right now it appears to be that Feb has a very good chance of being BN so I figured he was not happy with the turn of events. It is just a model run but if the GFS were right we would be a good 3-5 degrees BN when hitting the last third of Feb. Only one high out of the 15 panels is AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Sunday at 08:03 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:03 PM 11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I went back and looked and it was actually not him, it was this post and interpretation so sorry if I suggested it was him. I actually did not read what he said at that point in Jan to suggest your take on but my thought is right now it appears to be that Feb has a very good chance of being BN so I figured he was not happy with the turn of events. It is just a model run but if the GFS were right we would be a good 3-5 degrees BN when hitting the last third of Feb. Only one high out of the 15 panels is AN. Yeesh, I need to be better than that. I misquoted him. I thought we were joking about setbacks, which was in his post. No wonder you posted what you did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Sunday at 08:05 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:05 PM Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Yeesh, I need to be better than that. I misquoted him. I thought we were joking about setbacks, which was in his post. No wonder you posted what you did. I am sorry, was not trying to offend. I remembered the wall-to-wall term. At that time, and even as soon as two days ago, Feb looked middling at best but as of this moment it looks very cold. Whether it snows or not is always up for interpretation but someone quoted that MU was unhappy (joking I assume) about the Hog and I figured he was probably unhappy because he loves warm and warm Feb looks a lot less likely now than it did a few days ago, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Sunday at 08:08 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:08 PM 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: I am sorry, was not trying to offend. I remembered the wall-to-wall term. At that time, and even as soon as two days ago, Feb looked middling at best but as of this moment it looks very cold. Whether it snows or not is always up for interpretation but someone quoted that MU was unhappy (joking I assume) about the Hog and I figured he was probably unhappy because he loves warm and warm Feb looks a lot less likely now than it did a few days ago, Elliott and Chuck are both on the March train. Both are not enthused about March. Hope they're both wrong. About February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Sunday at 08:26 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:26 PM Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 309 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2025 PAZ026>028-034-035-049>053-056>059-063-032015- Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland- 309 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. A light accumulation of snow between a coating and one half of an inch into this evening could be followed by a light glaze of ice from patchy freezing drizzle later tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Two winter storms may impact the area, one mid-week and another next weekend. Both storms may generate a wintry mix with the possibility for plowable snow or ice accumulations. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Sunday at 08:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:27 PM 17 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Elliott and Chuck are both on the March train. Both are not enthused about March. Hope they're both wrong. About February. I know there is disdain for off topic here but I am dealing with the worst trade in NBA history (as of now) so hard to be happy posting. But really did not mean to offend, I was sort of defending MU and saying he is probably not happy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted Sunday at 08:34 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:34 PM 1 hour ago, AccuChris said: 12 Euro EPS is still very aggressive in a snowy period the next 2 weeks . Awesome! I can feel winter isn’t over at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Sunday at 08:36 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:36 PM So far the high here today has been 25. Impressive. Looks like snow though I know I am a bit too far south for the party tonight. MDT has a shot to stay below freezing today as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Sunday at 08:39 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:39 PM Flurries in Marysville now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Sunday at 08:51 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:51 PM 29.4 which is my highest temp so far. Nice cold day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted Sunday at 09:20 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:20 PM I’m not even sure what is left to debate. Phil settled everything when he decreed six more weeks of winter this morning. The only thing more rock solid than a Phil forecast is an MJS monthly mean temp calculation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Sunday at 09:21 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:21 PM For once models are targeting the LSV with the starting WAA of a storm coming our way...here are the Nam totals for snow before Ice kicks in Wed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Sunday at 09:34 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:34 PM Steady light snow in Marysville. Looking at radar in western PA, I’m starting to wonder if a mini positive bust is on the way this evening in parts of the LSV? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted Sunday at 09:42 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:42 PM Huh it’s snowing 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Sunday at 09:48 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:48 PM 4 minutes ago, canderson said: Huh it’s snowing Like modeled and forecasted. LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted Sunday at 09:54 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:54 PM The forecast of less than an inch is about to bust here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Sunday at 10:00 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:00 PM 18Z GFS sends first stage of Wed ice storm mostly south of us. Some light frozen new M/D line. But kicks in Thur with freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted Sunday at 10:10 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:10 PM Flurries in Lebanon presently. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Sunday at 10:36 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:36 PM Incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted Sunday at 10:39 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:39 PM ✳️ALERT ✳️ 2nd HALF OF WINTER LOOKING SERIOUS ...POSSIBLY SEVERE ... ➡️ Do NOT be fooled by this mild across much of the eastern CONUS FEB 3-9 ⬅️ MORE DETAILS IN THE NEW EDITION OF THE NEXT 3 WEEKS NEWSLETTER ON MONDAY There is no doubt now that the PV - Polar Vortex IS going to undergo a significant stretching and potentially SPLIT into 2 sections. Some of the models split the PV into two distinct centers while others elongated the PV and then bring it back into an oval or elliptical shape (as opposed to a tight closed Circular PV) by the end of February. In either case it represents a significant change so AFTER THIS WEEK FEB 3 -9 of Spring like conditions in the eastern US, there is no doubt in my mind that the winter is going to come roaring back sometime after February 9/10. Indeed the last two runs of the operational European are picking up on two different threats in the Middle Atlantic and Ohio valley. First it is Rain changing to snow behind the strong cold front on February 9/10 in MD DEL most of VA eastern KY and eastern WV. This is followed by a potentially major Ohio Valley /Mid-Atlantic snowstorm on February 11- 12. Interestingly this event has shown up now in the last three runs of the operational European. The change is driven that the -EPO (aka the ALASKAN BLOCK ) that which is currently in the western Alaska. As the PV begins to split... the BLOCK/ -EPO shifts eastward so that it builds into NW Canada by next weekend. At the same time the North Atlantic Ridge over Great Britain builds West into Iceland and Greenland by day 10 resulting in a very strong -NAO/ - AO combination or couplet. (East Coast snow lovers rejoice) These two changes force a steady shift of the strong Ridge in the eastern US into the western Atlantic by February 14. But even more impressive is the fact that there is quite a bit of model data that suggests the Alaskan nw t Canada BLOCK/ -EPO is going to build into the Arctic region at the same time the Greenland Ridge - NAO intensifies and expands. This creates what is known as LINKAGE and it would force the entire PV far to the south that possibly as south as James Bay Canada.! Brrrrrr This would trigger another prolonged and significant Arctic air mass outbreak much like we saw in January developing across the central and eastern CONUS mainly north of Interstate 40 by the middle of February. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Sunday at 10:43 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:43 PM Valentines Day smack down. (PBP not a forecast) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Sunday at 10:46 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:46 PM 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Valentines Day smack down. (PBP not a forecast) It actually gets to us in the 12th this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Sunday at 10:47 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:47 PM Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: It actually gets to us in the 12th this run. Here’s the 24 hr. Kuchera just for the 12th event this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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