Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Watching the most clear of images I have seen so far, at this link, just makes it hard to understand how the copter did not know.  Understanding the plane is above it and descending as they get closer, the lights on the plane are super bright and one would think even night vision would have caught something in their angle of vision at least in the last 10-15 seconds.  If they cnanot see that plane in that position, visual separation should never be an allowed tactic. 
https://www.yahoo.com/news/dca-surveillance-cameras-catch-clearest-171807768.html

It always takes multiple things to go wrong and it looks like the copter was primary cause and the tower's question as to whether he saw the jet coming in without identifying the location of the jet (i.e. at your 11 o'clock) is a secondary.  But that assumes no mechanical failures.

However I agree, just seems so obvious in retrospect it shouldn't have happened.  

[Festus]

42 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

 

Qyite the turn around in the last 18 hours.  It looked like the Team SER was about the take control and now the GFS is running 2/5 under us.  Some big changes.   Were it not for a lack of cold air, the 6Z GFS would be a train of snow storms vs. the ice to rain scenarios they show right now for the 5th and 9th (not much rain on the 9th.)  3 winter storms on the 6Z GFS between now and Valentines day. 

Forecast for Punxsutawney tomorrow is cloudy.  Looks like you and Mitch are going pretty far out on a limb in using models versus a rodent.

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It always takes multiple things to go wrong and it looks like the copter was primary cause and the tower's question as to whether he saw the jet coming in without identifying the location of the jet (i.e. at your 11 o'clock) is a secondary.  But that assumes no mechanical failures.

However I agree, just seems so obvious in retrospect it shouldn't have happened.  

Will be very interesting to hear the convo inside the copter.

It feels like a Hanover day.   Haha, actually the planned day to stop at my clients there. 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Festus said:

Forecast for Punxsutawney tomorrow is cloudy.  Looks like you and Mitch are going pretty far out on a limb in using models versus a rodent.

I sometimes think the "handlers" like to purposely pick whatever the opposite of the weather is...cloudy and he/she sees their shadow, sunny and they don't.    The Pennsylvania Polka is a catchy tune to listen to while it is happening. 

[Bubbler86]

A good bit, if not all, of the qpf on the Euro AI is frozen for the 5th.      8th/9th not as nice. 

[mahantango#1]

.24 rain yesterday. 33 with wind starting this morning.

[Blizzard of 93]

The 6z GFS has 5 different Winter Storm chances over the next 16 days.

Most are snow to mix scenarios, but we would build a little glacier if this run were to verify.

Too many maps (lol, yes I said it) to post each individual threat.

Here is the 16 day snow map just to give a general idea of the potential this run.

[mitchnick]

16 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

A good bit, if not all, of the qpf on the Euro AI is frozen for the 5th.      8th/9th not as nice. 

Good stuff starts on the 11th on the AI.

[Bubbler86]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Good stuff starts on the 11th on the AI.

I did not go there because of the "mantra", true or not, about only going 5-6 days.   If there was nothing else I may have gone there but the 5th was there. 

[Blizzard of 93]

22 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

A good bit, if not all, of the qpf on the Euro AI is frozen for the 5th.      8th/9th not as nice. 

The rest of the 0z Euro AI run looks like it was run out of my basement.

Drool worth for the 11th 

[Blizzard of 93]

6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I did not go there because of the "mantra", true or not, about only going 5-6 days.   If there was nothing else I may have gone there but the 5th was there. 

Lol, I went there!

[Blizzard of 93]

Here’s the 0z Euro AI for Valentine’s Eve.

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The rest of the 0z Euro AI run looks like it was run out of my basement.

Drool worth for the 11th 

 

 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 33 with .34” of rainfall and a fully decimated snowpack. 

[canderson]

.25” was my rain total. 

[Voyager]

.35" here. 

[ChescoWx]

We finished with between 0.25” to 0.45” of rain across the area yesterday. I still have to run the final numbers, but it looks like January 2025 will finish as a Top 25 or 30 cold January in our recorded climate history back to 1894. We also finished with above normal snowfall. I will have the final January climate summary later today.
A roller coaster ride in temperatures this week with both snow and rain chances starting around midweek. Unsurprisingly, the first 2 weeks of February will have at least a few chances of snow. Keep in mind that February is the snowiest month here in the philly burbs.

[Blizzard of 93]

6z Euro AI is also full of multiple potential Winter opportunities over the next 2 weeks.

[Bubbler86]

In what stands as a solid sign summer is still far off, we got clipped by a small 10 min torrential downpour yesterday to give us .65 for the day.   During summer that would be a miss.

[canderson]

Forecast high is 35. It’s 38 at 10 am  lol 

[Itstrainingtime]

2 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Low of 33 with .34” of rainfall and a fully decimated snowpack. 

Exactly the same here! 33 and .34"

[mitchnick]

I'll take the 12z Gfs for 2/5

[Blizzard of 93]

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I'll take the 12z Gfs for 2/5

Yes snow on 2/5 for the LSV, then a mix on 2/6.

[CarlislePaWx]

Here in Carlisle, I had 0.27" of rainfall yesterday, plus a straggler 0.01" overnight.  For the month of January I recorded a liquid total of 0.80", probably the driest January in many years...possibly ever (for me).  January of 1977 is the only other exceptionally dry month I can remember.  The only rainfall for the entire month occurred on the first, and then the 31st.  All other precip was snow.  Except for shovel patches here and there all other snowfall has melted and is gone  I recorded approximately 10 consecutive days with solid snow cover, with a few additional days with partial cover.

[Blizzard of 93]

12z GFS & Canadian continue the theme of multiple chances along the boundary over the next 2 weeks.

Hopefully we are on the Wintry side for a few of them.

[Superstorm]

GFS is storm after storm after storm


.

[Blizzard of 93]

12z Euro has less snow & more mix to rain this run with most of the systems tracking to our northwest this run.

[Blizzard of 93]

I like seeing the signal for snow over the next 2 weeks on the GEFS & EPS.

From my observations over the years, it’s usually a good indicator for snow potential when the 6 inch snow line reaches at least part of the LSV for the 15 or 16 day ensemble period.

The vast majority of the snow is in week 2 on both ensembles.

[MAG5035]

I think one thing that seems apparent out of the pattern look the next couple weeks is we are about to enter a period that has a good chance to at least start to reverse the ongoing dry pattern and make meaningful overall hydro impacts in the parts of PA that have been driest . Dating back to the fall we never really have had any significant systems or overly active periods and that appears to be what we are going to be getting into. Pretty confident on that.

What I’m hardly confident about is what p-type that much needed QPF reaches the ground as. Now tentatively I think this gets better (for snow) as we get to mid-month and beyond but I’m going to focus on the first two systems models seem solid on showing (2/5-6 and 2/9-10) first. I don’t think snow will be a major p-type with either here. GFS makes snow work with the 2/6 one because its split pieces where the first weak wave generates snowfall without rushing the column with big WAA at first. Euro and to a lesser extent the Canadian have this more in one piece and more significant low tracking across the lakes where the GFS has nothing but a better placed high and the wave squeezing underneath. There is still a retreating high so main wintry type would be freezing rain.

The following system (2/10) runs the boundary where in the 12z GFS case the low tracks to western PA and there’s a weak secondary attempt but it sets up for a significant longer duration mix/ice storm in C-PA. Euro low goes to the lakes but still enough cold for front end mixed/ice. Details about the low track,high placement, etc are well away from being resolved but I def think the icing threat is sizeable in at least some portion of C-PA (certainly interior and northern) with the combined impacts of both progged events. For significant snows I think this gradient pattern is going to favor upstate NY and interior New England.. perhaps southern New England. The 500mb pattern isn’t quite there for us IMO, despite plenty of cold air available… which is why an icing swath is going to be a notable threat.

500mb progs for week 1 are showing pretty sizeable + heights in the east, and a very positive NAO regime centered over Greenland. Persistent AK ridging keeps the cold pushing into Canada but this is going to focus west at first, especially with what looks like a persistent -PNA. Any stronger system is going to run too high for us to deliver good snows in that setup.

What changes in week 2, is that ensembles are starting to hone in on the AO/NAO reversing to negative as the Scandinavian Ridge progged over on that side starts to retro toward Greenland and link with the AK ridge. That would eventually press the cold (and the boundary) south into more of the US. If that look holds, we look pretty well set up for the second half of the month for better snow chances and eventually another significant cold outbreak. One issue I’m also watching is the MJO, as it is forecast to mostly be in 5-6 the next couple weeks but the magnitude of which varies on model. Either way I see more good things than bad in the pattern progs down the road right now. 

 

[Bubbler86]

I thought my NWS zone said falling to near 31 today but stayed in the 40's and upper 30's all day in Hanover and McSherrystown.   Wind was pretty brutal though.