Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[mahantango#1]

41 minutes ago, canderson said:

A coworkers wife was in the hospital with that this week. Hope you both are on the upswing

Yes we are but slowly. I endured multiple nights of fever ranging from 101-103.7. Wife had to get x ray of chest yesterday now she has Pneumonia. Dr. prescribed antibiotics for this yesterday. This was a nasty one this year.

[Itstrainingtime]

4 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Haha true but you know what's funny, the last few months MDT has consistently been coming in colder than forecasted.  Traditionally, when I do my monthly calculation, I nudge things up a bit to account for the MDT warm bias, but it's been the opposite lately (river ice and other factors?), with the obvious exception of these last few days ha.

That's an understatement. I don't ever remember a period of time when MDT was consistently, significantly colder than me. It really hasn't mattered what season it was, I'm colder than MDT 95%+ of the time. 

Until January 2025. 

[mahantango#1]

25 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Take Care and feel better (both of you.)  The flu and Covid are still both spreading around the area.

Thanks! I know of a good friend got diagnosed with covid 23 days ago and now this week she has been diagnosed with the flu. She commented she can't win.

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Thanks! I know of a good friend got diagnosed with covid 23 days ago and now this week she has been diagnosed with the flu. She commented she can't win.

I think that as more and more WFH arrangements go away the spread becomes more prominent.   From 2020-2023, spread was much less of an issue. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

20% of my backyard still has a 2" snowpack.  Come tomorrow she'll likely be bare. 

[pawatch]

35 degrees, light rain.

To me it seems like most of these rain predictions/forecasts most generally come up short. 
Definitely we can use some rain or snow.

[canderson]

It seems my hope for .5” rain is dashed. Bigger question - can we even get .1”? 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, canderson said:

It seems my hope for .5” rain is dashed. Bigger question - can we even get .1”? 

Model wise, most of the rain does not come until this afternoon.   Most of the energy is still in Indiana. 

[Itstrainingtime]

2 minutes ago, canderson said:

It seems my hope for .5” rain is dashed. Bigger question - can we even get .1”? 

MU Weather Center

1/2 Once again, northern MD, southeastern PA and the LSV are caught in a dry pocket between heavier rain in VA/WV and light rain across northern PA and NY. However, I still expect a period of steadier rain between ~1-7 PM before it tapers off from W-to-E between 7-11:30 PM.

2/2 Due to this "dry slot," rainfall totals in most areas will now only range from 0.25-0.50", and that's unfortunate given the ongoing, moderate-to-severe #drought.

[Itstrainingtime]

48 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Model wise, most of the rain does not come until this afternoon.   Most of the energy is still in Indiana. 

Did you say that the NWS Point and Click forecast is auto-generated? If so, I wonder how it's derived? 

My forecast was just slashed in half again. It's now showing a tenth to a quarter inch total. Earlier this morning it was a quarter to a half inch. Last night it was a half inch to an inch. 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Did you say that the NWS Point and Click forecast is auto-generated? If so, I wonder how it's derived? 

My forecast was just slashed in half again. It's now showing a tenth to a quarter inch total. Earlier this morning it was a quarter to a half inch. Last night it was a half inch to an inch. 

My understand is that it is tied to a type of NBM/a mean of models type situation that they then can manually adjust.  This is especially true for longer range zones re; Paweathers snow showers.    I do not think any met entered snow showers. 

[paweather]

February Thaw in full effect next week for a couple of days. 

[Itstrainingtime]

8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

My understand is that it is tied to a type of NBM/a mean of models type situation that they then can manually adjust.  This is especially true for longer range zones re; Paweathers snow showers.    I do not think any met entered snow showers. 

Right, that makes sense. 

Well, some of the trends for rain today are troubling. 

[Bubbler86]

9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Right, that makes sense. 

Well, some of the trends for rain today are troubling. 

Even 1/4 to 1/2" is very welcome right now.  Keeps thing stable for more precip hopefully to come. 

[Bubbler86]

GFS keeping with the ice storm next Wednesday...switching to rain mid way through.

 

 

[CarlislePaWx]

Here in Carlisle, approaching 12 noon, my temperature is creeping up oh so slowly to 37.4  The high for the day occurred after midnight at 39.9 while my low before dawn had dropped to 33.4.  I've had a whopping 0.03" of rainfall so far bringing my monthly total up to 0.61".  I agree with everyone else regarding the consistent reductions in storm totals for rain events.  24 hours ago my p-n-c added up to between 0.75" and 1.00" by late tonight.  Last night it had dropped to 0.50" total, and right now it's calling for a tenth to a quarter this afternoon followed by less than a tenth tonight.  The new total range is now between 0.15" and 0.30".  Oh well, I'm waiting for the rain to wash away the salt in my driveway.  I can't remember seeing this much salt before (at least the last 5 winter seasons).

[Bubbler86]

GFS wanting to attack us with all systems in the Short and Mid Term.  All sloppy over to rain. 

[Bubbler86]

.12" in the bucket now. 

[str8liner]

Hey hey we have a January thunderstorm going on here right now with snow on the ground.

Wow, big time Thunder and lighting! 

Interesting.

 

[Bubbler86]

12Z Euro mostly rain for both storms next week.    A missed opportunity if this does not switch a bit. 

[Bubbler86]

Third one rides the track nicely on the 12Z Euro but this is just for fun this far out.  Explosive possibilities per progged exactly like this.  This run is going to ride it too far north eventually but a lot to digest if this became at all close to reality.   The SER won today.   A Voyager special with 70's possible again. 

 

 

 

[Bubbler86]

VERY heavy rain heading into the LSV right now.  Some people who bailed may be "bailing" for the opposite reasons.   .5" has fallen in N Franklin county in the last 30 min.   40-55 or 60 dBZ stuff. 

Also, the Government does not sanitize their email signatures so they all match a set script/format?   I bet Elon fixes that up sooner rather than later. 

[Bubbler86]

[Bubbler86]

Just like Summer.  Pounding rains headed into Harrisburg. 

[canderson]

Raiiiiiiiiiin