Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[Voyager]

29 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

You should start the Spring thread on March 1 as it may jive more with want you are hoping for...instead of starting the winter thread.  ha.   Sorry you are depressed about it. 

I started the winter thread hoping to bring good snow chances for you guys. It didn't work quite the way I wanted it to. It brought some ridiculous cold, but not much in the way of storms. I don't mind the snow as much as I hate the cold. That extreme cold did me in, and now I'm in full blown spring mode. It didn't help that I got the flu right in the middle of the arctic outbreak, so I've been somewhat miserable. I'm over the flu itself, but residual fatigue, a raspy voice, and mental changes remain.

[Itstrainingtime]

4 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I started the winter thread hoping to bring good snow chances for you guys. It didn't work quite the way I wanted it to. It brought some ridiculous cold, but not much in the way of storms. I don't mind the snow as much as I hate the cold. That extreme cold did me in, and now I'm in full blown spring mode. It didn't help that I got the flu right in the middle of the arctic outbreak, so I've been somewhat miserable. I'm over the flu itself, but residual fatigue, a raspy voice, and mental changes remain.

I'm at 10.7" for the winter. Some in here are doing significantly better. This was not supposed to be a good winter in terms of snowfall. If I was offered 10" (of snow) back in November I probably would have taken it and run. Yes, the cold definitely has been more of an impact than snow but it hasn't been as bad as it could have been. 

[Bubbler86]

Gem has two much less amped lows next week, both rain for most of PA but the boundary is in place for low 3.

[Itstrainingtime]

39 and pretty nice at noon. Elliott says .50" north to 1" south of rainfall tomorrow. WPC concurs:

[Bubbler86]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
329 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2025

PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-302030-
/O.NEW.KBGM.WW.Y.0009.250131T0700Z-250131T1400Z/
Bradford-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-
Pike-Southern Wayne-
Including the cities of Montrose, Scranton, Sayre, Damascus,
Towanda, Hallstead, Milford, Wilkes-Barre, Hazleton, Tunkhannock,
Honesdale, and Equinunk
329 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations around a
  light glaze. Localized amounts up to a tenth of an inch of ice
  will be possible, especially in the higher elevations.

* WHERE...Bradford, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Northern Wayne, Pike,
  Southern Wayne, Susquehanna, and Wyoming Counties.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Very slippery sidewalks, roads and bridges are possible.
  The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Prepare for possible
power outages.

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania
Turnpike Commission remind motorist to adjust speeds based on
driving conditions as winter weather impacts Pennsylvania roadways.
Visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadways, and traffic
conditions.

 

 

 

Binghamton more gung ho to the northern than CTP is.  

 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

Almost an hour since the last post in the MA thread. On January 30th, that's concerning. 

[Bubbler86]

30 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Almost an hour since the last post in the MA thread. On January 30th, that's concerning. 

Many people only post positive stuff.  GFS was not good.   Euro not starting off good with the 5th storm. 

[Bubbler86]

[Bubbler86]

MA LR Thread, Line one.  MA LR Thread, Line one please.

 

 

 

 

[Bubbler86]

Train tracks set for a "Here comes the boom".  Need the train now.   Lows -3 to 7ish the morning of the 12th (Sorry Voyager, just a prog through)

 

[Itstrainingtime]

[Bubbler86]

16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

D2 is just ho-hum for you now.   I doubt the rain Fri will change this much next week but a second soaker could. 

[Bubbler86]

The EPS (and GFS to some extent)  looked awfully cold with its mean temps.  Starting to think we have a shot at a BN Feb.    I mentioned this because it would give met winter a clean sweep which was not on most peoples forecasts.   Of course I could screw myself for using ensemble temps but I think that is a good place to use them.

[Itstrainingtime]

14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

D2 is just ho-hum for you now.   I doubt the rain Fri will change this much next week but a second soaker could. 

A nice moderate snowstorm followed by snow on the ground for over a week helped mask how dry January has been. Even though we've enjoyed a wintry month, under the band aid, the dry weather pattern has very much lived on. We're fortunate that we capitalized on the few legit snow chances we've had. 

[Itstrainingtime]

15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The EPS (and GFS to some extent)  looked awfully cold with its mean temps.  Starting to think we have a shot at a BN Feb.    I mentioned this because it would give met winter a clean sweep which was not on most peoples forecasts.   Of course I could screw myself for using ensemble temps but I think that is a good place to use them.

Clean sweep potential at the de facto site. Us Lanco folk had an AN December.   (I honestly have no idea where my house fell in line with respect to normal) 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Clean sweep potential at the de facto site. Us Lanco folk had an AN December.   (I honestly have no idea where my house fell in line with respect to normal) 

Yea I am using MDT and the 30 year adjustments they do.    MDT had the 11th coldest Dec since 1995/in the last 30.   All time  it was the 74th Coldest Dec out of 137 putting it a bit below the middle line. 

[Ruin]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Honestly do they ever update this 

[Bubbler86]

5 minutes ago, Ruin said:

Honestly do they ever update this 

Hard to update when it does not snow/rain much.  It will not go backwards much in the winter due to the lack of drying heat but D2  mid to late winter is not ideal...but rain tomorrow is helpful. 

[Itstrainingtime]

6 minutes ago, Ruin said:

Honestly do they ever update this 

Honestly, yes. It's updated weekly. And last year at this time I was not under D2. 

[Bubbler86]

@Ruin

 

 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

@Ruin

 

 

 

#blizzfringed

No wonder Blizz downplays droughts! 

[Bubbler86]

38 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

#blizzfringed

No wonder Blizz downplays droughts! 

ChatGPT gave me this info including Marysville back when the soil was cracking.

 

[Bubbler86]

18Z GFS starts us off as light snow on the 5th transitioning to an all out ice storm as the thermal column moves north but CAD keeps us below freezing at the surface and a bit above. 

 

[Bubbler86]

This is after a decent period of sleet.  It does warm up post ice so its effects would be limited a bit by that. 

 

 

[Bubbler86]

Quite a bit of rain after the winter storm on the 18Z GFS so would do a lot to help drought numbers, then by the following Saturday, highs stay at or below freezing all day as the cold press is on.   Too much of a good thing as progged.  Suppressive and way below normal.   But exciting times when it pulls away (maybe).  

[canderson]

Hoping we can be lucky enough to get .5“” rain tomorrow. 

[Bubbler86]

MDT breaks the Min Max record on Feb 11th on the 18Z GFS.    I truly thought the "earth shattering" cold was done but progs today have piqued my interest.    Again, not great for snow.    Potential winter storm gathering at hour 282.