Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Elliott posted the map below and said he's not surprised...

#itstimeforitstrainingtime'sacstartup

Canadian operational and ensembles are so warm because the Canadian gets the MJO wave the strongest into the Martime (warm for the east coast) phases. Gefs is not as bad as the Geps and EPS is best in that it kills the MJO wave. If the Canadian is right, we could see those temps. But I've been in the Enso thread of the main forum for almost 2 years duking it out with the warmanistas, and I can tell you that nobody relies on the Canadian MJO forecasts as they are usually somewhere between not good and bad.

Here's a link to all the MJO RMM forecasts if interested. 

http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/mjo_phase.html

[Bubbler86]

[MAG5035]

42 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

https://www.millersville.edu/weathercenter/forecasts/weather-discussion.php

Generally agree. I’m not as enthused with how things evolved during the past week since I had my last pattern post. I did expect a potential warmer patttern after this week but I expected the first system to attack the lingering cold to be messy, which would be the current system slated for Friday. I think the ZR threat might be a bit understated on the models in the interior counties right now but obviously it’s a good bit warmer scenario than I was thinking last week. 

My nitpick would be there’s a little bit more going on than just the +NAO/AO regime. PNA is solidly negative and also slated to remain such for the time being. A bit of a return to the last couple winters in that regard after being positive most of Dec and first part of Jan. That’s ultimately what actually forces heights up in the east. EPO slated to go from postive to solidly negative next week along with the WPO remaining negative. That keeps AK ridging and will allow for cold to push into the lower 48. That’ll all factor into how the gradient pattern establishes next week. Does cold stay focused in the west or will it press east at least some and press the boundary down? If MJO goes into the null phase that may not be as much of a factor. It still may end up running through some portion of 4-5-6 though. Daily SOI numbers have stayed quite positive most of the last two weeks. Lot of factors/uncertainty at play into what should be a much more active pattern storm wise. 

[Bubbler86]

18Z GFS still trying the over the top system it has been advertising for days now.    Would not be overly cold but something to keep an eye on

 

 

[CarlislePaWx]

I would like to thank @Itstrainingtimefor his earlier post(s) about starting a banter thread.  I'm also surprised that you remembered that it was I who first made that suggestion either sometime last year or the year before.  I have held my peace this season because I know that my active participation is not year round.  Thus, I know that there would be a least a few who feel that I don't really have a right to make that kind of suggestion.  My angst over the past 6-8 weeks or so has not been about political posts, which at most have contributed to maybe a few percent of all posts.  Clearly, the problem was, and continues to be, with the 95%+ posts that were sports-related.  I'm not exaggerating when I say that literally there have been hundreds of posts.  I mean, a few weeks ago there were over 40 posts in a row that were sports talk.  Well, for one thing not everyone in this subforum is into sports.  But, it's not even about that.  It's the point that this is a weather-based forum, and we are a weather-based subforum.  There are more than enough sports forums out there on the interwebs online to keep you satisfied until the cows come home.  What is so horrible about having a second thread for talking about anything else?  If you don't want it cluttered with topics that are not sports, then make it a sports-only banter thread.  Finally, I believe I have the most incredible, simple solution to this ongoing problem.  It's called a second browser tab.  All you have to do is open that tab and then point it at the sports/banter thread.  You can place the two tabs right next to each other.  And, best of all, it would only take a few milliseconds to switch between our weather-only thread and the sports thread.  Why is it so important to include posts that are off-topic?  I hope that some of you realize that I'm being just a tad facetious here.  

I'm sorry for being long-winded.  Most of you know that many of my posts (this one included) are typically more than a sentence or two.  I'm a detailed-oriented individual who has a difficult time speaking without details. So, that's it from me regarding this whole ongoing controversy.  @Bubbler86, you made a comment about having others put you on ignore in order to keep off-topic posts from you being visible.  If I did that I would lose all of your weather posts, which are many, and that I look forward to reading each day.  I hope that everyone here will heed @Itstrainingtime's advice and start posting non weather-related topics primarily outside of our collective, beloved, weather community.

[Bubbler86]

[MAG5035]

9 hours ago, canderson said:

What happens when the NWS and NOAA lose all funding in the next few weeks? We just rely on the Euro and Canadian and cross fingers?

I know this is “OT” but it is weather/forecasting related and I wasn’t in here this morning.  I’ll keep it neutral although I definitely have my thoughts/opinions. 

I can’t speak for anyone directly in the NWS/NOAA but regardless of what Congress eventually does allow to happen I wouldn’t want any part of the uncertainty I’m sure that agency and in general the large amount of federal service workers in all the other agencies are going through. 

And meanwhile on the private sector/broadcasting side was the Allen Group attempting to replace over 100 tv Mets over three dozen local stations with prerecorded forecasts from The Weather Channel. I’m pretty sure someone in here had posted about that a couple weeks ago. They did retract on that last Friday after a good bit of public backlash. But it’s a direction these media conglomerates seem to want to go in. 

 

[Bubbler86]

5 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I know this is “OT” but it is weather/forecasting related and I wasn’t in here this morning.  I’ll keep it neutral although I definitely have my thoughts/opinions. 

I can’t speak for anyone directly in the NWS/NOAA but regardless of what Congress eventually does allow to happen I wouldn’t want any part of the uncertainty I’m sure that agency and in general the large amount of federal service workers in all the other agencies are going through. 

And meanwhile on the private sector/broadcasting side was the Allen Group attempting to replace over 100 tv Mets over three dozen local stations with prerecorded forecasts from The Weather Channel. I’m pretty sure someone in here had posted about that a couple weeks ago. They did retract on that last Friday after a good bit of public backlash. But it’s a direction these media conglomerates seem to want to go in. 

 

In my opinion, at most only 10-15 percent of our total posts are OT so one should not worry about that unless the forum Presidents come in with an edict.   I agree with you that the sense of not knowing has to be tough on anyone involved in this situation (weather and otherwise) and to top it off, at least specific to people working in Met, they have to deal with a largely ignorant general public who mocks them with jokes about having jobs in which they can excel while being wrong so often.  I would equate public weather forecasting with people who work in IT support in having to deal with disgruntlement when things are not working, then little in the way of acknowledgement any other time.   I truly hope things settle down in the near term as it relates to Federal employees. 

[Blizzard of 93]

2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

I think the first half of February will be active with chances. Some of these chances will likely end up as warm rainers. We just need to keep the precip chances coming as the Euro & GFS have been showing as we get into February. There will likely be a few close calls that could go either way in terms of Wintry potential, possibly even a few dreaded forum dividers. 
It should be more interesting than frigid & dry. Let’s hope we are tracking a specific threat soon.

[canderson]

My day absolutely blew because unnecessary chaos and suffering so just catching up. 

I see winds have increased to 50 mph tomorrow. Sweet. 

[Ruin]

4 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

nice funny tho some one posted a temp map for the same day as this and had the area in the 60s and 70s lol. 

[MAG5035]

Temps have ramped up to 42ºF here on a stiff SW breeze.

[Voyager]

6am Tamaqua obs:

18.5 degrees in my backyard with some crazy local variations.

[Blizzard of 93]

0z Euro & Canadian for Next Friday have a snow to mix potential.

[Itstrainingtime]

30 minutes ago, Voyager said:

6am Tamaqua obs:

18.5 degrees in my backyard with some crazy local variations.

It is 41 here...

[Bubbler86]

9 hours ago, Ruin said:

nice funny tho some one posted a temp map for the same day as this and had the area in the 60s and 70s lol. 

That is why some enjoy the model disco, watching the magic at work. 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

That is why some enjoy the model disco, watching the magic at work. 

If nothing else it will be entertaining to see how next week breaks for us. Elliott said it could be 35 or 70. Where does the boundary set up?

[Bubbler86]

 

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

If nothing else it will be entertaining to see how next week breaks for us. Elliott said it could be 35 or 70. Where does the boundary set up?

CMC did drop the boundary back to well south of us...for now.  GFS has 3 winter storms on its run, like Blizz mentioned the Euro and the CMC have the one 9 days out as well.

 

Low of 27 here but up to 34 now. 

[Bubbler86]

From mid teens to mid 40's.  15 N of Myerstown, 41 just SE. 

 

[Blizzard of 93]

Low of 23 in Marysville.

[Blizzard of 93]

19 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

 

CMC did drop the boundary back to well south of us...for now.  GFS has 3 winter storms on its run, like Blizz mentioned the Euro and the CMC have the one 9 days out as well.

 

Low of 27 here but up to 34 now. 

The 6z GFS as you mentioned showed potential Winter Storm chances on the 7th & the 10th.

You mentioned an additional chance, so that would be great too. 
I’m just hoping at least one of these chances works out for us in this back & forth boundary period.

[Itstrainingtime]

29 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

From mid teens to mid 40's.  15 N of Myerstown, 41 just SE. 

 

 

15 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Low of 23 in Marysville.

My lowest temp since midnight was 40.7!

On my drive to work the temp ranged from 35 to 41. I was the warmest location, but no where was it below freezing. From the map, it looks like most of western Lanco was well into the 30s this morning. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 35.  Quite the tight gradient setting up for the next week or so, should be interesting.  What's the crux of that joke that always flies around in here about the carpet and tile guys?  I only ask because I have the Carpet Mart guys coming today ha.

[ChescoWx]

We have a wind advisory in effect till 6pm tonight for gusts that could be as high as 50 mph. Today will be our warmest day since the 45.7 degree reading on New Years Day temperatures should touch the mid-40's. Cooler tomorrow, warmer Friday before near normal temperatures for the weekend. Dry today and tomorrow before some much-needed rain on Friday. We are currently running at just 25% of our normal melted snow and rain for the month of January.

[canderson]

Low was 27, and it went to 42 in 2:15. 

[pawatch]

41 degrees this morning and windy. High wind gust yesterday was 37 mph.

Calling for some white outs today especially north of I-80. 
Most of the snow is gone, only places snow is left is the shady spots.

Thanks to everyone posting the models. One request….could you get us one big storm this winter 

[WmsptWx]

Felt really nice this morning. I am ready to not see my shadow. 

[paweather]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 6z GFS as you mentioned showed potential Winter Storm chances on the 7th & the 10th.

You mentioned an additional chance, so that would be great too. 
I’m just hoping at least one of these chances works out for us in this back & forth boundary period.

Bring it Blizz. Already feels like a long time since we had snow. 

[Bubbler86]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 6z GFS as you mentioned showed potential Winter Storm chances on the 7th & the 10th.

You mentioned an additional chance, so that would be great too. 
I’m just hoping at least one of these chances works out for us in this back & forth boundary period.

I think the theme right now is that there are no sustained AN high temps on any progs this Am....ensembles included.   So the door is open for timing events.    As others alluded to, a war is on.   Normal highs in Mid Feb are back into the 40's. 

[Bubbler86]

No safe place on the highway!