Bubbler86 Posted Saturday at 12:17 PM Share Posted Saturday at 12:17 PM Timing is 12-24 hours off the Euro Ai but Gem also has a snow storm next weekend. GFS AI was leading the was on this one but has now reverted off it right when some other suites join. GFS AI is only been run randomly so hard to follow trends on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Saturday at 12:27 PM Share Posted Saturday at 12:27 PM 29 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Low of 12 here. Appears to be a big-time inversion night and my current house is just a wee bit too high to take advantage of it. LNS dropped from 8-9 to 3-4 in 10 min. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Saturday at 12:31 PM Share Posted Saturday at 12:31 PM 12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Timing is 12-24 hours off the Euro Ai but Gem also has a snow storm next weekend. GFS AI was leading the was on this one but has now reverted off it right when some other suites join. GFS AI is only been run randomly so hard to follow trends on it. As you mentioned, the 0z Euro AI agrees with the 0z Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Saturday at 12:32 PM Share Posted Saturday at 12:32 PM Maybe the Canadian & Euro AI will lead the way just like last Sunday’s event. The other models slowly came around to them after a couple of days. Let’s see what the 12z runs show later on. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Saturday at 12:32 PM Share Posted Saturday at 12:32 PM Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: As you mentioned, the 0z Euro AI agrees with the 0z Canadian. The MA board was asleep at the wheel. Moans and groans over there when a snow storm was shown here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Saturday at 12:38 PM Share Posted Saturday at 12:38 PM MDT got down to 1 around 6:30 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Saturday at 12:43 PM Share Posted Saturday at 12:43 PM Impressive that MDT has had 18 below normal days this month so far, including the last 5 with double digit negative departures. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Saturday at 12:43 PM Share Posted Saturday at 12:43 PM 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: MDT got down to 1 around 6:30 this morning. It was actually a 2 if it matters to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Saturday at 12:45 PM Share Posted Saturday at 12:45 PM 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: It was actually a 2 if it matters to you. It would have been interesting to get 1 more below zero, but low single digits is still impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Saturday at 12:47 PM Share Posted Saturday at 12:47 PM 15 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Maybe the Canadian & Euro AI will lead the way just like last Sunday’s event. The other models slowly came around to them after a couple of days. Let’s see what the 12z runs show later on. I didn't want to say it in the MA forum in light of what happened to most areas down there for fear of my life. It's got the late cold influx too just like last week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Saturday at 12:51 PM Share Posted Saturday at 12:51 PM THV bottomed at -2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Saturday at 12:52 PM Share Posted Saturday at 12:52 PM 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I didn't want to say it in the MA forum in light of what happened to most areas down there for fear of my life. It's got the late cold influx too just like last week. Verbatim I think the Euro AI is a Mecs here. 8-12". About half is after dark as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Saturday at 12:59 PM Share Posted Saturday at 12:59 PM Just now, Bubbler86 said: Verbatim I think the Euro AI is a Mecs here. 8-12" I checked out total QPF on TT, and it had the .5"/.75" line just to my south and I figured ratios would not be as great as last week. Obviously, it’s early and it could easily change, but this is the time frame when things usually start to hone in on the right answer. And the fact that the same 2 models that did well last week support it makes it a little more credible despite other modeling not yet on board. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Saturday at 12:59 PM Share Posted Saturday at 12:59 PM Good news on the longer range at day 15 on the 0z EPS. The SE ridge gets squashed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Saturday at 01:01 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:01 PM Just now, mitchnick said: I checked out total QPF on TT, and it had the .5"/.75" line just to my south and I figured ratios would not be as great as last week. Obviously, it’s early and it could easily change, but this is the time frame when things usually start to hone in on the right answer. And the fact that the same 2 models that did well last week support it makes it a little more credible despite other modeling not yet on board. I was figuring 12-15:1 with .6" qpf losing only .1" qpf before it was cold enough. Really hard to extrapolate with the smoothing and lack of details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted Saturday at 01:02 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:02 PM Hows that Tuesday clipper looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Saturday at 01:05 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:05 PM Meh...fun over 6z AI further north and hits north of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Saturday at 01:09 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:09 PM 6 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Hows that Tuesday clipper looking? Trended a bit North so not as juicy for us right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted Saturday at 01:11 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:11 PM 42 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: LNS dropped from 8-9 to 3-4 in 10 min. I dropped one more degree to 11 but single digits will escape me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Saturday at 01:22 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:22 PM Low of 6 in Marysville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted Saturday at 01:34 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:34 PM 6 was my low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Saturday at 01:40 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:40 PM 34 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Meh...fun over 6z AI further north and hits north of NYC. The king is dead already? Post a week is a bit long for AI but we are right at the cusp right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Saturday at 01:43 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:43 PM 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The king is dead already? Post a week is a bit long for AI but we are right at the cusp right now. If the final track is Anything but an extreme cutter, I think that we get a little front end snow to a mix. All options still on the table, & yes, we are still in the game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Saturday at 01:55 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:55 PM 9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: If the final track is Anything but an extreme cutter, I think that we get a little front end snow to a mix. All options still on the table, & yes, we are still in the game. Still in the game, but would love to see the AI lock in for a hit. Otoh, it wasn’t until around 120hrs out before it locked in for last week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Saturday at 01:57 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:57 PM 49 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Meh...fun over 6z AI further north and hits north of NYC. To me on the old school looking maps from the Euro AI website… it looks like a Miller B scenario that takes a weak low to the OH Valley that transfers off of the DelMarVa & then the coastal heads northeast off of the the NJ coast. If this run played out, it could be a snow to mix/rain, then back to snow as the coastal takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Saturday at 01:58 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:58 PM Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: To me on the old school looking maps from the Euro AI website… it looks like a Miller B scenario that takes a weak low to the OH Valley that transfers off of the DelMarVa & then the coastal heads northeast off of the the NJ coast. If this run played out, it could be a snow to mix/rain, then back to snow as the coastal takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Saturday at 01:58 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:58 PM Differences between AI and EPS is pretty stark. In fact, differences between 0z Gem and AI were substantial too despite a similar result, which probably a red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Saturday at 02:00 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:00 PM 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: But 850's are all above 0 before and during the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted Saturday at 02:00 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:00 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Saturday at 02:05 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:05 PM 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: But 850's are all above 0 before and during the storm. Not worried about exact temps, just general track at this range. Just avoid a massive cutter & I think we score at least a sloppy front end to mix at our latitude… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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