Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[pasnownut]

8 minutes ago, str8liner said:

Yep that will do it. Not a could in the sky here. I heat my garage with coal and can tell how cold it was overnight by how many shovels of coal it takes lol. Generally its 1 shovel full in the am. The other night I had to throw 3 in it. Last night it pretty much completely burnt up and I am having to almost start from scratch. It was pretty dang cold last night going by that.

My woodstove is hungry as well.  Every morning, barely enough coals to kickstart the next load.  I'm burning ash (unlimited supply - free), so not complaining, but I'm burnin though the wood right now.  Still have 3.5 qds left for rest of winter so not worried.  

[canderson]

1 was the low. 

[ChescoWx]

Here in Chester County PA Through yesterday 2025 is off to the coldest start in 31 years since that extremely cold January of 1994. Yet another very cold morning across the County this morning with 8 of our 18 current lower elevation station locations again reaching below zero levels. Most of these locations have had 3 such mornings in a row. We stay well below normal for the next 3 days before we warm to normal levels for late January by the end of this week and into early next week. We look to stay dry for at least the next week.

[mahantango#1]

Temp bottomed out at -4.

[pasnownut]

on drive into work, temp range was -2 to +3.  -2 in same area that had -11 yesterday.  

One thing that makes me feel better about the warmup, is that itll be getting back towards normal, but with the dense cold, and frozen ground, it should help w/ snowpack retention for a while anyway.  Hoping the overnight Euro wasnt sippin on too much Vodka.  We'd take that one.

 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, pasnownut said:

on drive into work, temp range was -2 to +3.  -2 in same area that had -11 yesterday.  

One thing that makes me feel better about the warmup, is that itll be getting back towards normal, but with the dense cold, and frozen ground, it should help w/ snowpack retention for a while anyway.  Hoping the overnight Euro wasnt sippin on too much Vodka.  We'd take that one.

 

 

Each morning this week has been unique in terms of temp distribution - on Tuesday it was warmer at home than anywhere on my drive to work. Yesterday the temp was bouncing around wildly the entire drive and this morning my temp was colder than anywhere else on my drive. 

All 3 mornings were plenty cold though.

[Bubbler86]

MDT's 5 min readings suggest they dropped below zero at 8:10.  A comment above inspired me to check where MDT stood for coldest starts to the year. 2018 was colder so second coldest since 2000 (1996 actually.)   An ode to olden times that as cold as it has been, we are not even top 15 and the number below has been influenced by river ice in the opinion of some.    

 

[CarlislePaWx]

I was zero degrees at midnight and hung out around there for most of the night until near 6:00am when i dropped below zero down to -4 at 7:30am.  Amazing 3 nights in a row.  I'm back up to +5 F now with clear skies and sunshine and almost no wind.

[pasnownut]

29 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Each morning this week has been unique in terms of temp distribution - on Tuesday it was warmer at home than anywhere on my drive to work. Yesterday the temp was bouncing around wildly the entire drive and this morning my temp was colder than anywhere else on my drive. 

All 3 mornings were plenty cold though.

Thats funny.  I thought the very same thing on way in yesterday.  One mornings cold spot, was the next days warm spot, and vice versa.  But, yeah, no matter the winners n losers in the number contest, its plenty friggin cold enough no matter where you are.  

[Jns2183]

I just desperately need moisture and lots of it. Don't care if it's just rain

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[Bubbler86]

22 here.  Several degrees warmer than any point since Sunday evening. 

[canderson]

32 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

I just desperately need moisture and lots of it. Don't care if it's just rain

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Best you can do is skim the river for ice and melt it. 

[canderson]

12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

22 here.  Several degrees warmer than any point since Sunday evening. 

I’m at 12. But even with that ice is falling off the house due to full sun. 

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, canderson said:

I’m at 12. But even with that ice is falling off the house due to full sun. 

It is heating up quickly over here  Some mid to upper 20's to my north.  Might be some who break freezing over here.  Some lower temps mixed in the valleys.

 

 

 

[WmsptWx]

30 minutes ago, canderson said:

Best you can do is skim the river for ice and melt it. 

Is the river frozen? 

 

Juniata is a skating rink for the most part. 

[pasnownut]

Nooner GFS is one wonky ass evolution for next week.  IF that happens as modeled, it'll just be another "can you belive that sh!t" moment in the chronicals of how to get screwed in winter.  Although I can see what its saying (matching up to base state...specially NAO lifting out wise), but I'm not buyin what its sellin.

 

 

[canderson]

8 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Is the river frozen? 

 

Juniata is a skating rink for the most part. 

Yup. There are some patches in the ice here and there but it's a big ice jam N of the dock street dam. It's been frozen over for a week now. I posted a pic Tuesday of it. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Sunny and 20 in Maytown. Melting has commenced on south-facing exposed areas.

[Itstrainingtime]

12 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Nooner GFS is one wonky ass evolution for next week.  IF that happens as modeled, it'll just be another "can you belive that sh!t" moment in the chronicals of how to get screwed in winter.  Although I can see what its saying (matching up to base state...specially NAO lifting out wise), but I'm not buyin what its sellin.

 

 

GFS isn't alone with that evolution, correct?

[Bubbler86]

15 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Nooner GFS is one wonky ass evolution for next week.  IF that happens as modeled, it'll just be another "can you belive that sh!t" moment in the chronicals of how to get screwed in winter.  Although I can see what its saying (matching up to base state...specially NAO lifting out wise), but I'm not buyin what its sellin.

 

 

 

2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

GFS isn't alone with that evolution, correct?

Our High Pressure is quite a bit farther SE vs the colder solutions previous. 

[pasnownut]

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

GFS isn't alone with that evolution, correct?

CMC also shows delayed ejection of cutoff SLP in SW, and offers something similar.  We know cutoffs often get stuck on the models, and while NAO is lifting out, flow prior is/was progressive, and while I can see what they are saying vs changing base state, if it ejects sooner, it'd be a potentially nice chance at something.  I'm just not buying the bottled up look in the SW.  Cutter option, yeah thats totally possible.  I'm just thinking timeing is wonky.  Thats all.

[pasnownut]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

 

Our High Pressure is quite a bit farther SE vs the colder solutions previous. 

Yep, and thats no bueno as it gets us into return flow and nudges that vort waayyy west.  With blocking liftin out, it has to be considered I guess.

[Bubbler86]

28 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Yep, and thats no bueno as it gets us into return flow and nudges that vort waayyy west.  With blocking liftin out, it has to be considered I guess.

The MA group needs to hire a counselor.  LOL.  This possibility was never really a flush snowstorm thing, we are racing against retreating cold just for something to track.      The GEM is much different than the GFS which results in FRZ all the way down in GA.   This is due, IMO opinion, to a broad ridge/upside down banana high to our NE vs. the GFS showing a SLP pushing the ridge East. 

 

 

[Bubbler86]

Icon, GFS and CMC all have the Final Week of January Setback on their panels still but different days.  Timing and length is the key to our potential Groundhog Day winter storm.   Here is GFS

 

[Ruin]

15 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

This is humorous in retrospect

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Yep

[pasnownut]

8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The MA group needs to hire a counselor.  LOL.  This possibility was never really a flush snowstorm thing, we are racing against retreating cold just for something to track.      The GEM is much different than the GFS which results in FRZ all the way down in GA.   This is due, IMO opinion, to a broad ridge/upside down banana high to our NE vs. the GFS showing a SLP pushing the ridge East. 

 

 

While I no longer head "down" into their sub.....(see what i did there), I can only imagine. I miss great convo w/ the normal good ones, but the rest was just too much for my sanity.  

I've said it a bunch of times, as i've learned this long ago, in the infamous words of JB, what a model shows can only be considered, if it "fits the pattern".  While I dont like what we just saw, technically it fits w/ NAO headed ++.  NS forcing liftin out makes the wagons west scenario something to surely consider.

Just seems like the NS storm shredder/suppressor gets cut off really quick, and me thinks somethings amuck and as previously stated, IF it ejects a bit sooner, they they might be having something to hang their snow weenies onto.  It could go the other way though.  Just gotta see how strong n long the cold can hold.  It can be stubborn to scour, and CAD is something that this potential event would have to work around. 

[Ruin]

17 still forecast is 29 almost 1pm going to be hard to hit 29 ill say 25

[Bubbler86]

8 minutes ago, Ruin said:

17 still forecast is 29 almost 1pm going to be hard to hit 29 ill say 25

MDT is 20-22 and CXY 22-24.  

[Ruin]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

MDT is 20-22 and CXY 22-24.  

I have 2 thermometers they both say 17  

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, Ruin said:

I have 2 thermometers they both say 17  

I was not questioning your temp, but the NWS temps I looked at are pointing toward it getting into the mid to upper 20's still.   Even if not 29, 26 or better is fine for the forecast.   THV is making a run for 30 after being -8 this AM.