Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[pasnownut]

13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea, I just think the issue is that SW menace.  Were it not for help from the NE blocking, we would be torching with that thing raising heights and the WAR.  I would like to roll it out of there even if it is a cut. 

I do think we lose quite a bit if it gets near 40 this weekend (snow)

those cuttoffs often seem to get hung up (known euro bias of yesteryear), but looping through it appears that its coming out in pieces, until blocking weakens and yep, it cuts.  IF we could hang onto that blocking a bit longer, outside chance at some fun here for next weekend. 

[Bubbler86]

My take on both the GFS and EC op's, did not look at ensembles, is to get your break in this week and put your tracking pants back on next week.   It could be a total zero in the end but we will have cold area near and eventually the SW pig is going to come out and open up the pipeline for potential bowling balls in a zonal pattern.   Like Nut said, the WAR is not overly troubling on the LR progs right now. 

[Bubbler86]

2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

12Z Icon has a different 500H pattern than the GFS next week and a substantial "setback" in driving lows below 0 again for about 1/3 of the state next Wed AM with highs Wed near 20-25 for the LSV. 

UK with a tip of the hat to the Icon.  Quite cold this time next week.  A trough carves out over us and cold air dumps in from the N and NE. 

[pasnownut]

19 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

My take on both the GFS and EC op's, did not look at ensembles, is to get your break in this week and put your tracking pants back on next week.   It could be a total zero in the end but we will have cold area near and eventually the SW pig is going to come out and open up the pipeline for potential bowling balls in a zonal pattern.   Like Nut said, the WAR is not overly troubling on the LR progs right now. 

I hope youre right.  I think only worry is that once NAO goes into + terrirory during that timeframe, it then is a matter of what happens after that.  NAO as of today looks to head further into + territory and coupled w/ the AO being slated to also be slightly +, that could bring the boundary further north, and is something i'm watchin for in the next few days.  Neut PNA is only ok if we have some NS forcing, and if not, pac origin air likely wins out.  also, IF we can get MJO headed back twds 7/8, I'll feel a bit better and will have trackin pants close by.  

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I hope youre right.  I think only worry is that once NAO goes into + terrirory during that timeframe, it then is a matter of what happens after that.  NAO as of today looks to head further into + territory and coupled w/ the AO being slated to also be slightly +, that could bring the boundary further north, and is something i'm watchin for in the next few days.  Neut PNA is only ok if we have some NS forcing, and if not, pac origin air likely wins out.  also, IF we can get MJO headed back twds 7/8, I'll feel a bit better and will have trackin pants close by.  

Just to clarify, we could be tracking rain eventually but it is better than tracking how many snow records Florida has broken :-).  I will quote Blizz, at least we are in the game/arena.  LOL

[Summit Snow]

Definition of "WAR"?

 

[mitchnick]

13 minutes ago, Summit Snow said:

Definition of "WAR"?

 

Western Atlantic Ridge

Warms us up

[Jns2183]

The way this month is going I'm going to finish it with only 0.65" of precipitation. Dry dry dry

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