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Central PA Winter 2024/2025


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Idk what the Gefs has been smoking, but the 6z run has come in with more snow with a changeover tomorrow night.  This is 10:1, so it's definitely overdone, nothing else looks like it. I don't believe it, but sure as heck wish it would score the coup.

sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_ne (8).png

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32 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Idk what the Gefs has been smoking, but the 6z run has come in with more snow with a changeover tomorrow night.  This is 10:1, so it's definitely overdone, nothing else looks like it. I don't believe it, but sure as heck wish it would score the coup.

sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_ne (8).png

I would be nice to get lucky with this one.

Here is the 24 hour GEFS snow map for this event on Weatherbell.

Everyone please note… Weatherbell map shows less snow…………

IMG_7865.png

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2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I would be nice to get lucky with this one.

Here is the 24 hour GEFS snow map for this event on Weatherbell.

Everyone please note… Weatherbell map shows less snow…………

IMG_7865.png

Maybe the one or two members showing big snow on the Pivotal GEFS panel decided to abstain on WB?  

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8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I would be nice to get lucky with this one.

Here is the 24 hour GEFS snow map for this event on Weatherbell.

Everyone please note… Weatherbell map shows less snow…………

IMG_7865.png

Even that is a lot more than anything else.

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It looks like our wettest couple of days are on tap since the 5.86" of rain that fell between August 6th and 10th. Models show between 1.25" to as much as 2.75" of potential rain. A cold front will sweep through tomorrow night and end the rain....some models hint at a brief change to snow before ending. These type of rain to snow scenarios rarely work out the way the models project. Either way it is much colder to close out the week before we moderate to close to normal over the weekend with the potential of more rain.

image.png.9c9408ef322540b73dcda40c6701bd14.pngimage.thumb.png.57ef6fb2edc88aa60c912ed591d700bf.png

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47 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Even that is a lot more than anything else.

Truth told, its been a while since we've had rain to snow scenario.  The good ol days of watching every raindrop and waiting for the rain to turn to white rain, then the flip.  

I'm rooting for this, but we've done enough of these (especially down here) to know how this typically pans out (post empty pan pics at will).  Elevation/norther/westers...many of us are living vicariously through you on this one.

Happy to see the post frontal cold shots, to keep things from being totally sh!t, but until we find a way to get troughing back in the east, or at least zonal boundary far enough S to keep us in the mix, I'm keeping chips in pocket for a while.  Not much on ENS guidance, as its a rather progressive look, and one of PAC air origin/dominance.  Maybe next week we start to see a better look.  Hope so.  

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23 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Truth told, its been a while since we've had rain to snow scenario.  The good ol days of watching every raindrop and waiting for the rain to turn to white rain, then the flip.  

I'm rooting for this, but we've done enough of these (especially down here) to know how this typically pans out (post empty pan pics at will).  Elevation/norther/westers...many of us are living vicariously through you on this one.

Happy to see the post frontal cold shots, to keep things from being totally sh!t, but until we find a way to get troughing back in the east, or at least zonal boundary far enough S to keep us in the mix, I'm keeping chips in pocket for a while.  Not much on ENS guidance, as its a rather progressive look, and one of PAC air origin/dominance.  Maybe next week we start to see a better look.  Hope so.  

Hey you don’t mock our patented rain to rain winter storms! 

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19 minutes ago, canderson said:

Hey you don’t mock our patented rain to rain winter storms! 

Dont mock it till ya try it.....

Been there...did that. Its just not in the cards for us down here.  As stated, norther westers can score on these, so if I lived up or over there...I'd be fine w/ backend snow and a couple days of white after.  I guess I'm just pooh poohin the look in my/our hoods.  

I'm not trying to pooh pooh any chatter about how we may get snow, as sneaky surprises (like upcoming event) are capable of doing just that, but its a needle in haystack look for the next week.  AO looks to be headed back notably neg and PNA + after mid month, and that helps IF other indies arent crap.  Need to see what that new look is next week IMO. 

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Temps have rocketed to 57ºF here today (58ºF at one point). Had a tad over an inch of rain fall yesterday (1.05”). 

Some models are coming back around to the rain to snow scenario over a bit larger of an area of C-PA later tomorrow. Best handling ones are likely gonna be the high res stuff like the 3k NAM. I think most of us could see some kind of changeover but this is likely to be yet another elevationally driven event in terms of accumulations. There’s a sharp temp drop progged behind the frontal passage but probably not sharp enough in lower elevations to get meaningful accums. The big story with this event is likely to be the much needed rainfall. SW PA and WV has seen some meaningful improvements on the drought monitor the last couple weeks and it appears that tomorrow’s system is going to really help the more significant drought conditions in eastern PA and the megalopolis (and surrounding) region as a whole.

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