Chris78 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 7 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: Here we go, afraid these may be a tad high but would love for them to bust low. These are too smoothed out but not going to go crazy. I am sure I forgot someone I have conversed with recently but going off the top of my head, no offense. I could have simply said 4-6" and covered most :-).@canderson an interested observer just told me it is really 4.8"so changing my number @Blizzard of 93 4.5" @Itstrainingtime and @Mount Joy Snowman and other Lanco posters 5.3" @DDweatherman 4.2" @Chris78 4.0" @pawatch 2.6" @paweather 5" @Bubbler86 4.2" @AccuChris 5.1" @mitchnick 4.2" @Voyager 5.3" @mahantango#1 4.1" @WmsptWx 3.7" @anotherman 4.4" Solid numbers I agree with you on my yard. Nice call 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 I was surprised that the temperature has warmed up overnight 34 this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, mahantango#1 said: I was surprised that the temperature has warmed up overnight 34 this morning I’m getting a little nervous with radar returns 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 6z runs, other than Euro as it's pending, maintained that 3-5" idea for the winners as I put it last night in the MA forum. My NWS forecast has held atc3-7" since yesterday and that has a decent chance of verifying, but I doubt any 7" totals and you'll need some luck for 6". Basically a decent, moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, paweather said: I’m getting a little nervous with radar returns I think we're OK at this point. It comes together pretty fast on modeling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 6z runs, other than Euro as it's pending, maintained that 3-5" idea for the winners as I put it last night in the MA forum. My NWS forecast has held atc3-7" since yesterday and that has a decent chance of verifying, but I doubt any 7" totals and you'll need some luck for 6". Basically a decent, moderate event. My forecast went from 4-8 down to 3-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I think we're OK at this point. It comes together pretty fast on modeling. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 12 minutes ago, paweather said: I’m getting a little nervous with radar returns Seems like we have been through this before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 8 minutes ago, Voyager said: My forecast went from 4-8 down to 3-5. They'll probably wait for 12z to come out, but I expect mine to get shaved some off the top. If we don't find a way to score after today thru the first few days of February, we're in trouble because the February pattern that looks to be coming is hostile to snow...real hostile. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: They'll probably wait for 12z to come out, but I expect mine to get shaved some off the top. If we don't find a way to score after today thru the first few days of February, we're in trouble because the February pattern that looks to be coming is hostile to snow...real hostile. Meaning warm pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: They'll probably wait for 12z to come out, but I expect mine to get shaved some off the top. If we don't find a way to score after today thru the first few days of February, we're in trouble because the February pattern that looks to be coming is hostile to snow...real hostile. DT said the first 2 or 3 weeks in February doesn't look good for winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, paweather said: Meaning warm pattern? It has us in the +1C-3C or 1.8F-5.4F range for 3 weeks, give or take. And it has a ridge around the western, southern, and eastern borders of the Conus. Not pretty if you want snow. Gotta hope it's wrong, but the Euro weeklies have been great with the cold forecasts since mid-Nov. If they maintain their accuracy, be prepared for early spring talk. Lol Iow, we need the next 2 weeks badly or else TCC will be crawling out of his hole I'm sure. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 I’ll worry about what’s next after today. Go snow & Go Eagles! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 6z Euro was a great run for the LSV. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 7 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: DT said the first 2 or 3 weeks in February doesn't look good for winter. Silver lining, I suppose, is that most Niñas bring back the cold in March, so we may have to wait until late February or early March for a less hostile period. But then we're fighting boundary temps. Not a big problem so much in the hill ares and northern PA, but it is down in the relative lowlands like mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: 6z Euro was a great run for the LSV. Shocker! I was afraid to look to be honest. Now let's see if it verifies. I posted before how it seems to always bump numbers imby right before the event starts and it never verifies. Of course, there's still a 12z run to mess with our heads too. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Silver lining, I suppose, is that most Niñas bring back the cold in March, so we may have to wait until late February or early March for a less hostile period. But then we're fighting boundary temps. Not a big problem so much in the hill ares and northern PA, but it is down in the relative lowlands like mby. It sucks when we get into the middle and latter part of March when it's supposed to be getting warmer and winter cold temps wanna hang on. I think winter will make a comeback...when were ready for spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 6z Euro was a great run for the LSV. Pivotal always more conservative with Kuchera snowfall numbers, hence a better shot at verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 One quick check of the long range for February on the latest Euro Weeklies shows below normal temperatures in our region despite not the ideal pattern look at times. I’m encouraged because the Weeklies in the longer term are usually not generous with showing cold whatsoever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 35 minutes ago, mitchnick said: They'll probably wait for 12z to come out, but I expect mine to get shaved some off the top. If we don't find a way to score after today thru the first few days of February, we're in trouble because the February pattern that looks to be coming is hostile to snow...real hostile. I'll be the first to admit that I'm ready for break in the cold. It makes my job so difficult, so on that note I'm hoping to see the AN for February. With that said, I'd still like to see a solid thump before this crazy cold this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 The wording in the Winter Storm Warning from NWS: * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest snow will fall between 2 and 6 PM with rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 30 day Period on the GEFS shows below normal temperatures in our region as well. Note, the GEFS extended only goes out 35 days, so this map is from January 23 to February 22. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 NWS still has that range in accumulations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 20 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: One quick check of the long range for February on the latest Euro Weeklies shows below normal temperatures in our region despite not the ideal pattern look at times. I’m encouraged because the Weeklies in the longer term are usually not generous with showing cold whatsoever. That looks great, but the weeklies I follow are at the link below and they aren't great for February after the first week or so. They are run off the 0z Eps from the night before and your run is from 2 nights ago. So it's possible, but I would imagine, very unlikely that 1 day would make a difference especially since the prior run at the link below was warm too. Anyway, here's the link. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202501180000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501270000 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: That looks great, but the weeklies I follow are at the link below and they aren't great for February after the first week or so. They are run off the 0z Eps from the night before and your run is from 2 nights ago. So it's possible, but I would imagine, very unlikely that 1 day would make a difference especially since the prior run at the link below was warm too. Anyway, here's the link. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202501180000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501270000 Here's a link to the 5H anomalies I referred to in my earlier post fwiw. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202501180000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501270000 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 6z Eps snowfall mean. Best I've seen in years for mby. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 First small area of qpf is rain here. 35 degrees. Radar looks fine to me. If we did not have modeling to know what is progged, it would not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Great Euro runs guys!. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 If you go to this link, wait for it to populate info, then it's easy to move around if you're on your phone with 1 finger. Anyway, the cold air has made it to State Collefe and Bradford is in the upper teens. We'll be OK by the time the meaningful precip arrives....I think. Lol https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?obs=true¢er=39.82,-79.68&density=1&zoom=7&basemap=OpenStreetMap&boundaries=true,false&obs_popup=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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