Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[mahantango#1]

I just hope this storm delivers. I hope it's not like the forecasted rain the last few months. Everytime it looked like we were gonna get good amount of rain, when game time came amounts were lowered.

[mitchnick]

Models always adjust within 12-24 hours of start time, but I can't remember when the adjustment was higher and not lower, and it actually ended at that higher prog.

[Blizzard of 93]

2 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

Long range HRRR is sorta meh for accumulations


.

We are in the main swath of good precip,

Winners & losers will come down to banding. 

[Bubbler86]

36/35 headed toward 9PM. 

[paweather]

15 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

We are in the main swath of good precip,

Winners & losers will come down to banding. 

Still shows a good four inches 

[WmsptWx]

8 minutes ago, paweather said:

Still shows a good two @candersons

Ayeeee

[mahantango#1]

JB is going for the higher amounts in Pa. He said that an hour ago.

[WmsptWx]

2 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

JB is going for the higher amounts in Pa. He said that an hour ago.

Because of course he is. 

[mahantango#1]

3 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Because of course he is. 

The American Storm

 

@BigJoeBastardi

 

 

2 forecasts made. One early week using analog blend of Kennedy and Reagan snow events, and now the adjustment. Changed 2 numbers ( acy down, maybe too much, Boston up a bit). 20-30 to 1 ratios near 528 thk/-8c 850 temps should fluff up amounts Correct analogs can Prevent model swing whipsaw

[CASH_COOP]

Update

Canderson 4.8" (.38)

Paweather 8.0" (.75)

GrandmasterB 5.8" (.50)

AccuChris 5.2" (.47)

Jns2183 5.5" (.46)

Itstrainingtime 5.1" (.43)

Cash_Coop 5.5" (.39)

DDweatherman 6.2" (.51)

Mount Joy Snowman 6.2" (.53)

mahantango#1 6.5" (.44)

Jonesy56 3.5" (.30)

MAG035 4.6" (.37)

[CASH_COOP]

3 hours ago, anotherman said:

Hahaha I never made a prediction! I’ll say 5.1

is the 5.1" your guess for HIA contest? I also need total qpf please

[mahantango#1]

4 minutes ago, CASH_COOP said:

Here are the entries I have as of 9PM:

Canderson 4.8" (.38)

Paweather 8.0" (.75)

GrandmasterB 5.8" (.50)

AccuChris 5.2" (.47)

Jns2183 6.0" (.49)

Itstrainingtime 5.1" (.43)

Cash_Coop 5.5" (.39)

DDweatherman 6.2" (.51)

Mount Joy Snowman (.53)

Less than 3 hours to get your guess in.

I'll take 6.5 (.44)

[Jonesy56]

Here are the entries I have as of 9PM:
Canderson 4.8" (.38)
Paweather 8.0" (.75)
GrandmasterB 5.8" (.50)
AccuChris 5.2" (.47)
Jns2183 6.0" (.49)
Itstrainingtime 5.1" (.43)
Cash_Coop 5.5" (.39)
DDweatherman 6.2" (.51)
Mount Joy Snowman (.53)
Less than 3 hours to get your guess in.

I’ll go with NBM-ish number and hope I bust low. 3.5” (.30)


.

[CASH_COOP]

Just now, Jonesy56 said:

I’ll go with NBM-ish number and hope I bust low. 3.5” (.30)


.

Somebody has to cover low  still need a 8+ to cover high 

[MAG5035]

5 minutes ago, CASH_COOP said:

Here are the entries I have as of 9PM:

Canderson 4.8" (.38)

Paweather 8.0" (.75)

GrandmasterB 5.8" (.50)

AccuChris 5.2" (.47)

Jns2183 6.0" (.49)

Itstrainingtime 5.1" (.43)

Cash_Coop 5.5" (.39)

DDweatherman 6.2" (.51)

Mount Joy Snowman (.53)

Less than 3 hours to get your guess in.

4.6” (.37)

[CASH_COOP]

@Mount Joy SnowmanI fixed your numbers

6.2” (.53)

[WmsptWx]

What are we guessing? Snowfall at the airport?

 

T.

[CASH_COOP]

Just now, WmsptWx said:

What are we guessing? Snowfall at the airport?

 

T.

Guessing what HIA will receive.  Total snow and qpf for tie breaker 

[Bubbler86]

Fv3 with some nice ccb action to puff up totals for Easters.  Not impressive out this way.

[Blizzard of 93]

This is what I’m waiting for to make my prediction…

[CASH_COOP]

@WmsptWx you wanna enter? I believe 6.9” from .69 qpf is still open 

[Blizzard of 93]

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

This is Ellinwood from the MA thread who is a very good long time forecaster.

[mahantango#1]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

This is what I’m waiting for to make my prediction…

Post the map as I'm on this phone and it won't let me do to much on this old phone. Now we wait for further guidance from our premium forecaster.

[paweather]

Is Elliott MillevilleWX where has he been 

[canderson]

The river ice is bananas 

[CASH_COOP]

8 minutes ago, paweather said:

Is Elliott MillevilleWX where has he been 

2 different red taggers 

[Bubbler86]

Icon basically holds serve with a bit of a bump for lanco.  On phone but quick look is 1-2 more se Lsv.  Icon one of the higher progs right now.

[Blizzard of 93]

3 minutes ago, canderson said:

The river ice is bananas 

Fantastic photo.

Yes, the ice was impressive looking out as I drove through Wormleysburg this afternoon.

Just imagine what the ice will look like after the frigid temps this week!

[DDweatherman]

14 minutes ago, paweather said:

Is Elliott MillevilleWX where has he been 

He mainly posts in the MA forum since he's living down near Annapolis.