Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[Ruin]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

High of 42 today did a number on the pack and it is totally gone minus mounds.  Will be nice to refresh tomorrow. 

had no pack here at all even after the nice little 1 inch snow we got last week. maybe a spot that doesnt get direct sun may have a small snow pile. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

A little late here but for MDT I’ll go 6.2” off of .53” liquid.  CC: @CASH_COOP @Bubbler86

[anotherman]

Here we go, afraid these may be a tad high but would love for them to bust low.  These are too smoothed out but not going to go crazy.  I am sure I forgot someone I have conversed with recently but going off the top of my head, no offense.   I could have simply said 4-6" and covered most :-).

[mention=1156]canderson[/mention] an interested observer just told me it is really 4.8"so changing my number
[mention=12693]Blizzard of 93[/mention]  4.5"
[mention=1366]Itstrainingtime[/mention] and [mention=18246]Mount Joy Snowman[/mention] and other Lanco posters 5.3"
[mention=9275]DDweatherman[/mention] 4.2"
[mention=10851]Chris78[/mention] 4.0"
[mention=2236]pawatch[/mention] 2.6"
[mention=6001]paweather[/mention] 5"
[mention=524]Bubbler86[/mention] 4.2"
[mention=20742]AccuChris[/mention] 5.1"
[mention=821]mitchnick[/mention] 4.2"
[mention=317]Voyager[/mention] 5.3"
[mention=7391]mahantango#1[/mention] 4.1"
[mention=2708]WmsptWx[/mention] 3.7"
[mention=1189]anotherman[/mention] 4.4"
 

Hahaha I never made a prediction! I’ll say 5.1

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Superstorm said:

RGEM shifted significantly SE as we ALL should have expected.


.

Considering the Canadians had their forecast from probably 3 days ago and will probably be what, 25-35 miles, north of reality is imho a great forecast.

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said:

A little late here but for MDT I’ll go 6.2” off of .53” liquid.  CC: @CASH_COOP @Bubbler86

Sorry if there was any confusion, my predict was just ME predicting totals for each person.  I do that every year for fun.  Not sure what the other thing is but I am not involved in that. 

[pawatch]

They bumped things up.

[WmsptWx]

1 hour ago, Superstorm said:

Bob Barker, 4.9”


.

Rod Roddy, 1.00

[paweather]

16 minutes ago, pawatch said:

They bumped things up.

Talk about a range! Holy heck.

[paweather]

KC sure knows how to buy refs. 

[Bubbler86]

Canadian has the MDT area below zero 4 mornings in a row, Wed-Sat,  with a peak of -9 on Thursday the 23rd which would be 3 under the current record.   GFS and Euro not nearly as cold especially the GFS. 

[Superstorm]

KC sure knows how to buy refs. 

Don’t get me started


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[2001kx]

25 minutes ago, pawatch said:

They bumped things up.

What an odd map

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, 2001kx said:

What an odd map

3-11" is a nice buffer. 

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

3-11" is a nice buffer. 

That’s I’m not going to make a mistake range

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, paweather said:

That’s I’m not going to make a mistake range

They may have accidentally mixed their percentage of chance/highest end possibility maps with their forecast maps.

[Voyager]

I don't pay for models. What does the 18z Euro show?

[WmsptWx]

That map should get the National Weather Service shut down.

[Ruin]

50 minutes ago, pawatch said:

They bumped things up.

lol these amount ranges are jokes right 

[Bubbler86]

The last RAP was shockingly low.  Hope the 0Z's hold ground some. 

[Itstrainingtime]

24 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I don't pay for models. What does the 18z Euro show?

I think the Euro was a couple of steps backwards, unfortunately.

MDT is only .21" of QPF.

[medmax]

Here we go, afraid these may be a tad high but would love for them to bust low.  These are too smoothed out but not going to go crazy.  I am sure I forgot someone I have conversed with recently but going off the top of my head, no offense.   I could have simply said 4-6" and covered most :-).

[mention=1156]canderson[/mention] an interested observer just told me it is really 4.8"so changing my number
[mention=12693]Blizzard of 93[/mention]  4.5"
[mention=1366]Itstrainingtime[/mention] and [mention=18246]Mount Joy Snowman[/mention] and other Lanco posters 5.3"
[mention=9275]DDweatherman[/mention] 4.2"
[mention=10851]Chris78[/mention] 4.0"
[mention=2236]pawatch[/mention] 2.6"
[mention=6001]paweather[/mention] 5"
[mention=524]Bubbler86[/mention] 4.2"
[mention=20742]AccuChris[/mention] 5.1"
[mention=821]mitchnick[/mention] 4.2"
[mention=317]Voyager[/mention] 5.3"
[mention=7391]mahantango#1[/mention] 4.1"
[mention=2708]WmsptWx[/mention] 3.7"
[mention=1189]anotherman[/mention] 4.4"
 

In for 5.7”

[canderson]

I won’t change my prediction but it looks like a 3” or so storm for MDT.  They have changed the grid to 3-5” - it was 5-8” when we entered dinner. 

[Blizzard of 93]

21z National blend of models.

[paweather]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

21z National blend of models.

Continued good news Blizz

[Blizzard of 93]

Here’s CTP’s latest Expected map as of 7:16 pm…..

[WmsptWx]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here’s CTP’s latest Expected map as of 7:16 pm…..

Honestly I've seen enough plowable events this season, if all I'm to see is one inch, I would rather see none. I don't need the ass-pain that comes with taking my kid to daycare on Monday on shitty roads. 

[pawatch]

30 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here’s CTP’s latest Expected map as of 7:16 pm…..

Definitely more realistic. 

[Bubbler86]

0z HRRR delays the snow a bit vs. 18z.  For LSV and near.

[canderson]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

0z HRRR delays the snow a bit vs. 18z.  For LSV and near.

A ~5 hour event it appears? Will need heavy precip to get up to warning levels 

[AccuChris]

Long range HRRR is sorta meh for accumulations


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