paweather Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Just now, Superstorm said: Nope. More like an APPS runner. Geezus let's hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 minute ago, Superstorm said: Nope. More like an APPS runner. It looks like it would be headed to cutting over SE PA. Would be some serious snow on the back end if it does not transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yep, it is riding almost into PA at 48 hours. Just a discussion...I say that to avoid the inevitable complaints about how bad people think it is. Very heavy snow in central PA as the low passes. ITT/MJS are enjoying a showery mid-upper 30's mid day Sunday. I've just seen too many times when the HRRR is out of whack at this point but then comes into the fold once you get inside of 24 hours. Don't get me wrong, every once in a great while it can sniff something out but for the most part it's just not at all in its wheelhouse at this range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Homie J Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Love how NWS State college's winter weather page has State College as <5". Really narrows it down for us haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 4 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: I've just seen too many times when the HRRR is out of whack at this point but then comes into the fold once you get inside of 24 hours. Don't get me wrong, every once in a great while it can sniff something out but for the most part it's just not at all in its wheelhouse at this range. Yep, just doing the PBP. Most people should know it is a situation where things are subject to change and not to take too much out of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yep, just doing the PBP. Most people should know it is a situation where things are subject to change and not to take too much out of it. Good stuff Love the PBP. Thanks for doing it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Nam looking like it could be better again. Has a better reflection in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Nam looking like it could be better again. Has a better reflection in the SE. Sure does. At least to these eyes, at 12z Sunday it looks like we're in for something more substantial and inland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said: Sure does. At least to these eyes, at 12z Sunday it looks like we're in for something more substantial and inland. Yes, it is a fold by the Nam IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago No doubt 18z NAM finally wakes up. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago I mean this really is priceless - A slight chance of snow before 7am, then snow showers, mainly after 7am. High near 33. North wind 8 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Low nicely positioned over far S VA or N NC at hour 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Just now, Festus said: I mean this really is priceless - A slight chance of snow before 7am, then snow showers, mainly after 7am. High near 33. North wind 8 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. I read that too. OH well, snow is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 51 homerun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 minute ago, paweather said: 51 homerun? The qpf presentation is weird, will wait to see the 3K. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Just now, Bubbler86 said: The qpf presentation is weird, will wait to see the 3K. TT is so slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 2 minutes ago, paweather said: I read that too. OH well, snow is snow. Agreed but Joe Q Public sees snow showers and thinks what we got yesterday. But then again, does Joe Q Public actually read NWS verbiage? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Just now, paweather said: TT is so slow. The Nam Kuchera map is a very strange one. LOL. Yea TT is slower, use pivotal. Plus the snow maps are bad in marginal situation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: The qpf presentation is weird, will wait to see the 3K. Yeah the NAM is having trouble filling in the precipitation shield for whatever reason but it's a WAY better run overall. Certainly joining the party, likely even more so at 0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Yeah the NAM is having trouble filling in the precipitation shield for whatever reason but it's a WAY better run overall. Certainly joining the party, likely even more so at 0z. I get almost nothing on the Nam. Right on the edge of the 2" line to my west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Overall, much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: I get almost nothing on the Nam. Right on the edge of the 2" line to my west. Yes I see you found the hole haha.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 18z 3km NAM looking much better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 3K snow map is much different than 12K and basically a medium westerward jump from 12Z with some upped totals in East LSV. But seeing a fold in 12K gives me extra caution about it now. Until it folded I gave it a chance to tell its story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago This is not far from the Icon or EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 3k smooths things out a bit. Feel like a rough consensus is emerging. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: 3k smooths things out a bit. Feel like a rough consensus is emerging. It smoothed NC PA out of 6-10". That is a Kruger Industrial Smoothing job if I have ever seen one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago I think 4-6 CTP is a good call right now 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago ChatGPT had a slight lowering but not really consequential 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago At least most of us got a Winter Storm Watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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