Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[Bubbler86]

So camp wise I think we have Rgem, FV3, GFS and AI....UK is sort of a middler but leaning toward Camp 2....then Icon, Euro, Nam on the progressive side.  Nam is the driest of all of them as we discussed but the progression and areas that get decent snow are similar.   All in the first camp (somewhat guessing on AI) show precip totals of .5-1" over areas of the LSV (rgem even over 1" in some places).  Second camp is more .2 to .4 levels. 

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

So camp wise I think we have Rgem, FV3, GFS and AI....UK is sort of a middler....then Icon, Euro, Nam on the progressive side.  Nam is the driest of all of them as we discussed but the progression and areas that get decent snow are similar.   All in the first camp (somewhat guessing on AI) show precip totals of .5-1" over areas of the LSV (rgem even over 1" in some places).  Second camp is more .2 to .4 levels. 

AI is about .5 QPF for our neck of the woods. Good news is if the baseline is 3-5 with boom potential I’d lock that in 

[canderson]

Dumb question amnesty: What is the diff in the Euro AI v OP? Couldn't you argue every model is AI?

(God I hate AI ... )

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Now the moment you've all been waiting for......my .7" of snow yesterday melted down to .07" liquid.  #BreakingNews

[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 minute ago, canderson said:

Dumb question amnesty: What is the diff in the Euro AI v OP? Couldn't you argue every model is AI?

(God I hate AI ... )

I second this inquiry! 

[Festus]

I see Trump's inauguration has been moved indoors.  Guess he didn't want to pull a Harrison.  At least there will be no crowd size disputes.

[Bubbler86]

17 minutes ago, canderson said:

Dumb question amnesty: What is the diff in the Euro AI v OP? Couldn't you argue every model is AI?

(God I hate AI ... )

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/178/news/aifs-new-ecmwf-forecasting-system

 

Data driven instead of old fashioned physics. 

[Bubbler86]

Remembering below is not day to day weather, it is climate/UL stuff. 

From June 2024.

Discussion: To evaluate AI forecasts, some preliminary verification results are recently available. The verification presented is for climate signal forecasts for the 6-10-day period from the past 30 days (Fig. 1). Evaluated is the mean average error (MAE) for North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), Pacific North America (PNA) index, East Pacific oscillation (EPO), and West Pacific Oscillation (WPO). The MAE for each climate signal is combined for 5 operational models and 5 AI processes. Final skill scores are reasonably close. The Artificial Intelligence Forecast System (AIFS) ranked no. 1 overall followed closely by the Canadian Ensemble (CMC ENS) and Global Forecast System (GFS). The Forecast Net GFS ranked last in this comparison. While AIFS ranked No. 1, operational models ranked 2 through 4. Clearly, based on this sampling, AIFS is “competitive”. Combining all 10 models and their forecasts of NAO, PNA, WPO, and EPO for the 6-10-day period from the past 30 days, most skillful was the PNA forecast while least skillful was the NAO forecast (Fig. 2). Implied are the upper air forecasts across western North America is best, easter North America worst, and middle of the road results in-between as identified by WPO and EPO.

 

 

[Superstorm]

WSW just posted by Sterling.

[paweather]

1 hour ago, AccuChris said:

12z Euro op kuchera op
 

Not bad. 

[paweather]

6 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

WSW just posted by Sterling.

CTP won't do anything until tomorrow. 

[Superstorm]

Looks unbudged

[anotherman]

CTP won't do anything until tomorrow. 

Of course not.

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Of course not.

If they are going to do a Winter Storm Watch it should be this evening.  Tomorrow is too late.  Warning time.  (My opinion not a predict) 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Latest map by CTP shows a slight expansion northwestward of the 4" line.....

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Latest map by CTP shows a slight expansion northwestward of the 4" line.....

There is no WSW coming if that is their true predict.   Many models are not WSW level snows. 

[Bubbler86]

FWIW, HRRR still looks like it will have more qpf than some of the drier suites.

[paweather]

9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

There is no WSW coming if that is their true predict.   Many models are not WSW level snows. 

If that's true it is turning out to be a MA January

[Bubbler86]

Just now, paweather said:

If that's true it is turning out to be a MA January

That list I broke down were the only op models showing 5" or more for a large part of the area.   They are looking at a lot of other stuff including percentage based progs.  I thought since the GFS is over 5" they should do a WSW but if they do not, it is not crazy talk. 

[Bubbler86]

HRRR starts off as rain for most of the Southers.  Not a predict nor backing the HRRR thermals but it does have the SLP far enough north that some warm air push is taking place.   SLP is in WV and that is too far north west for my liking. 

[paweather]

I got my WSW!!!

[Bubbler86]

[paweather]

Saying now 4-6" 

[Superstorm]

7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

HRRR starts off as rain for most of the Southers.  Not a predict nor backing the HRRR thermals but it does have the SLP far enough north that some warm air push is taking place.   SLP is in WV and that is too far north west for my liking. 

Its so far west it literally dry slots.

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Its so far west it literally dry slots.

Yep, it is riding almost into PA at 48 hours.  Just a discussion...I say that to avoid the inevitable complaints about how bad people think it is.   Very heavy snow in central PA as the low passes.   ITT/MJS are enjoying a showery mid-upper 30's mid day Sunday.  

[AccuChris]

Its so far west it literally dry slots.

I was just going to say it puts the warning level snow past State College lol…now thatd be a kick in the nuts lol


.

[paweather]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yep, it is riding almost into PA at 48 hours.  Just a discussion...I say that to avoid the inevitable complaints about how bad people think it is.   Very heavy snow in central PA as the low passes.   ITT/MJS are enjoying a showery mid-upper 30's mid day Sunday.  

Miller B? 

[Itstrainingtime]

37 minutes ago, paweather said:

CTP won't do anything until tomorrow. 

 

36 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Of course not.

Say what?

[Superstorm]

3 minutes ago, paweather said:

Miller B? 

Nope.  More like an APPS runner.

[anotherman]

Say what?

Happy to be wrong.