Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[Superstorm]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Like I said I would not call it alone, it is not far off from the other less amped models

 

and a 180 from the 6Z

[Mount Joy Snowman]

2 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

I cannot figure out the NAM this week. Typically, it is one of the more “over-amped” models and over does systems. For whatever reason, it cannot find this storm. Either its going to be the biggest win ever or its the biggest bust ever. I have never seen it so alone with a solution so consistently even 54 hours out


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I think it's getting pretty close.  As mentioned above, the 3k frames are much more in line with other guidance.  But yes, it's had a rough go ha. 

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

and a 180 from the 6Z

6Z had the SE Snow on the higher res as well.  It pretty much held serve IMO with a slight NW adjustment.  

 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

The FV3 -- a model I don't care for -- adds to the winners pile.

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

The FV3 -- a model I don't care for -- adds to the winners pile.

Very Rgemy

[Bubbler86]

Here is the 6Z and 12Z Nam.  Not seeing much of a change IMO.  Qpf gets a little farther NW.   It is in the Icon and Euro camp for now with less qpf.  3K did not go out far enough at 6Z to dig in too much.

[Itstrainingtime]

Slowly but surely (and as expected by me) the extreme cold next week continues to back off somewhat. In fact, CTP never has me going below 0 at any point. Lows of 1 on Tuesday night and 4 on Wednesday night. 

Not minimizing those temps. Just an observation that regardless of the level of cold modeled it almost always ends up modifying over time. We'll see what happens next week. 

[Bubbler86]

Icon forming low in Central Alabama. 

[Bubbler86]

Icon is not going to be the Rgem.  Low in Eastern SC at 48.  Off NC Coast at 54 with light snow in SW and South PA. 

[mitchnick]

Rgem height lines at 42hrs about 25 miles se of 6z fwiw.

[mitchnick]

Bumped a bit nw of 6z at 48hrs however 

[AccuChris]

12z Icon definitely an improvement compared to its 6z run


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[Mount Joy Snowman]

ICON pretty much holds serve. 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Bumped a bit nw of 6z at 48hrs however 

It is still going to be the rgem.  Going to be a big one for those that snow.  Score is going to be 2-2 after the first 4 models between amped/Norther and Not Amped/off the coast. 

[AccuChris]

12z RGEM locked and loaded


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[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, AccuChris said:

12z Icon definitely an improvement compared to its 6z run


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Much better for out here.

[AccuChris]

RGEM goes boom again


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[Mount Joy Snowman]

Rgem is really tucked in tight to the MD/PA border with the SLP but she's still gonna be a 'beaut. 

[Bubbler86]

Definitely have ourselves a perplexing split so far.  Rgem and Fv3 show a much more amped and close riding vort vs the Icon and Nam.    Rgem very nervous for southers. 

[sauss06]

14 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Slowly but surely (and as expected by me) the extreme cold next week continues to back off somewhat. In fact, CTP never has me going below 0 at any point. Lows of 1 on Tuesday night and 4 on Wednesday night. 

Not minimizing those temps. Just an observation that regardless of the level of cold modeled it almost always ends up modifying over time. We'll see what happens next week. 

really going to suck monday morning clearing snow with these temps. 

[AccuChris]

12z RGEM kuchera map


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[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, AccuChris said:

12z RGEM kuchera map


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Continues a slow bleed for Lanco. 

[Bubbler86]

15 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Slowly but surely (and as expected by me) the extreme cold next week continues to back off somewhat. In fact, CTP never has me going below 0 at any point. Lows of 1 on Tuesday night and 4 on Wednesday night. 

Not minimizing those temps. Just an observation that regardless of the level of cold modeled it almost always ends up modifying over time. We'll see what happens next week. 

I have been burned by modeled extreme temps too often myself, waiting until Mon to even worry about it.  Will get snow cleared Sunday.   Most (if not all) kids have off Mon already. 

[anotherman]

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Continues a slow bleed for Lanco. 

I think it's wrong.  RGEM is famous for this and then it magically disappears when the event starts.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Definitely have ourselves a perplexing split so far.  Rgem and Fv3 show a much more amped and close riding vort vs the Icon and Nam.    Rgem very nervous for southers. 

I'm definitively favoring a blended approach and I almost shudder to say this, but I think Lancaster is going to be in a perfect spot to maximize the potential of this event.  Apologies to the Lancaster crew for giving us a death sentence ha. 

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I'm definitively favoring a blended approach and I almost cringe to say this, but I think Lancaster is going to be in a perfect spot to maximize the potential of this event.  Apologies to the Lancaster crew for giving us a death sentence ha. 

Sounds like a good plan for now.    The fill blended model (NBM) in unimpressive to say the least but think/hope it beefs up with more qpf on shorter term mesos as they get in range. 

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

RGEM goes boom again


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I would like another 10+ miles more breathing room for better ratios. Lol

[Bubbler86]

What is really honing in is the Eagles game is going to be wet or snowy.  Very little room for it to be dry at this point.  Nothing is exact this far out but may be a game of weather. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

And here she comes, GFS is rolling.....

[Bubbler86]

GFS up to break the split.  Does it stay with the amped Miller A like run from 6Z or a transfer like 0Z.