Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[Superstorm]

06Z Reggie looking better….




.

[Voyager]

Seems like Sunday is beginning to "look" like it's going be a decent hit. I guess if we get a good snow cover it'll knock down next week's lows a few more degrees, unless the wind prevents good radiational cooling.

[mitchnick]

6z GEM moved a bit south. Here's precip that falls as snow in mm. Multiply the mm number by .4 to get qpf in inches and don't forget to move the decimal point!

https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/precipitation-accumulation.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=cmc_gdps&hi=000&hf=120&type=SN&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&capa_verif=off

[mitchnick]

0z EuroAI qpf

[Blizzard of 93]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

0z EuroAI qpf

Yes, it was the best Euro AI run yet for south & east PA

[Blizzard of 93]

Here’s another view of that 6z RGEM 

Very consistent since it got into range & its parent the Canadian has not wavered with this event for a couple of days.

[mahantango#1]

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here’s another view of that 6z RGEM 

Very consistent since it got into range & its parent the Canadian has not wavered with this event for a couple of days.

I hate to say it, but I'm feeling cocky. Lol

[mitchnick]

Bliz, we gotta' get to work on the next one.

[Blizzard of 93]

It’s great to see the GFS at 6z finally get more on board with the idea of a juicer system on Sunday.

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Bliz, we gotta' get to work on the next one.

Nothing is better in this hobby than tracking the next one while one event is already imminent or underway…

 

[pawatch]

27 degrees this morning and a coating of snow overnight. Vehicles are covered.

A few encouraging model runs!  Anxious to see how this plays out. Not looking forward to all this cold next week. They say it could be similar to what we had in 96. I remember that..driving a Ford truck with a 300 6 cylinder. That week was brutal. A lot of frozen water pipes and sprinkler system problems. Working on the fire department.

[mitchnick]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

It’s great to see the GFS at 6z finally get more on board with the idea of a juicer system on Sunday.

Everybody in every forum, except for us, have been poo-pooing the Canadians. Now, the Gfs has joined the club. Euro will too, but not necessarily with this 6z run as it's usually quite obstinate. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, pawatch said:

27 degrees this morning and a coating of snow overnight. Vehicles are covered.

A few encouraging model runs!  Anxious to see how this plays out. Not looking forward to all this cold next week. They say it could be similar to what we had in 96. I remember that..driving a Ford truck with a 300 6 cylinder. That week was brutal. A lot of frozen water pipes and sprinkler system problems. Working on the fire department.

I didn't get onto the internet until the following winter. I wish I was, but the modeling wasn't what it is now.

[Voyager]

17 minutes ago, pawatch said:

27 degrees this morning and a coating of snow overnight. Vehicles are covered.

A few encouraging model runs!  Anxious to see how this plays out. Not looking forward to all this cold next week. They say it could be similar to what we had in 96. I remember that..driving a Ford truck with a 300 6 cylinder. That week was brutal. A lot of frozen water pipes and sprinkler system problems. Working on the fire department.

Me neither. Sub zero is going to suck. No danger of the water freezing in the trailer, but the hoses and valves are going to be a problem.

[sauss06]

what is the timing for Sunday event?

[GrandmasterB]

Great to wake up and see the 6Z GFS run. Maybe we all have a little wiggle room east or west too if there are any shifts in track. 

[Bubbler86]

Quick scan, we have the Chatgpt, Canadian,  GFS showing 4"+ (editing to add GFS) and everything else is less? 

[anotherman]

Quick scan, we have the Chatgpt, Canadian,  GFS showing 4" (editing to add GFS) and everything else is less? 

GFS is definitely more than a brooming there.

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, anotherman said:

GFS is definitely more than a brooming there.

I edited it as I was looking at the 0Z. 

[mahantango#1]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

I edited it as I was looking at the 0Z. 

Even DT's first guess map shows more than a brooming for you.

[Bubbler86]

6 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Even DT's first guess map shows more than a brooming for you.

A lot of models show me getting 2-3", was just trying to catch up as in what is usually case, the models not showing snow are not posted as much.  UK, Euro, Nam, Icon are all much lower than the others I quoted. 

[mahantango#1]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

A lot of models show me getting 2-3", was just trying to catch up as in the usual case, the models not showing snow are not posted as much.  UK, Euro, Nam, Icon are all much lower than the others I quoted. 

When do you think we will get a consensus on the final track and amounts, would it be tomorrow afternoon some time? Probably it will change several more times till Sunday. Hopefully it's not a big letdown in the end.

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

A lot of models show me getting 2-3", was just trying to catch up as in what is usually case, the models not showing snow are not posted as much.  UK, Euro, Nam, Icon are all much lower than the others I quoted. 

Ukie 5-6" for us

[Bubbler86]

Just now, mahantango#1 said:

When do you think we will get a consensus on the final track and amounts, would it be tomorrow afternoon some time? Probably it will change several more times till Sunday. Hopefully it's not a big letdown in the end.

I would be worried about big rgem level snows if we still have the majority of models showing it passing off or transferring off the SE Coast tomorrow AM.  If I had to forecast for the LSV right now I would go with 3-6".  

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Ukie 5-6" for us

6Z looked 3 to maybe 4" to me.   I am to the left of the pink area. 

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

I would be worried about big rgem level snows if we still have the majority of models showing it passing off or transferring off the SE Coast tomorrow AM.  If I had to forecast for the LSV right now I would go with 3-6".  

I think that’s a good call at this range given the current model spread & speed of the system.

[mitchnick]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

6Z looked 3 to maybe 4" to me. 

That is 6z Kuchera 

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, mitchnick said:

That is 6z Kuchera 

I had no idea that there’s a 6z Ukie available.

[Bubbler86]

Just now, mitchnick said:

That is 6z Kuchera 

Right, and I am close to that 4" line.  I also think Kuch may be a tad high on the UK depict but not getting into that convo.  The point was it was not the 6-10" of the models in the "higher camp".  If forecasting just off the GFS, AI and Canadian the totals would need to be 6-10 I think.