Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[DDweatherman]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Sn+ and up to 3/4"

Must be in pen mar? Decent returns over there

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Must be in pen mar? Decent returns over there

Rou house but we are part way up the mountain to penmar.   Driveway is covered.  Radar looks like end is near.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Rou house but we are part way up the mountain to penmar.   Driveway is covered.  Radar looks like end is near.

Unless the stuff to the nw decides to make the trek across the mountains. 

[Blizzard of 93]

49 minutes ago, paweather said:

Where is @Blizzard of 93 he needs to reassure me lol

Hi!!!

I loved the model trends today.

The Canadian & Euro AI have been very consistent for days on this event.

A compromise would work well for the LSV.

But if that Canadian could somehow verify…. Ohhhh Canada!

[mitchnick]

Lt snow here. Had a day of snow with a little less than a half inch. It stopped, then restarted maybe 20 minutes ago. 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Hi!!!

I loved the model trends today.

The Canadian & Euro AI have been very consistent for days on this event.

A compromise would work well for the LSV.

But if that Canadian could somehow verify…. Ohhhh Canada!

You don't have to be so damned sneaky about it! Lol

[Blizzard of 93]

Do you guys think that the snow in west central PA will survive the mountains & make into the Susquehanna Valley this evening?

[paweather]

24 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Hi!!!

I loved the model trends today.

The Canadian & Euro AI have been very consistent for days on this event.

A compromise would work well for the LSV.

But if that Canadian could somehow verify…. Ohhhh Canada!

It would be awesome! I needed some reassure as others did pick up for this event, it’s always good to hear from you! 

[Itstrainingtime]

Working late tonight and it's snowing very impressively here at the office. Road was covered in just a few minutes. Hard to tell exactly what the visibility is but it's sub 1/2 mile for sure. 

[WmsptWx]

Roads are shit. Don't do it again. 

[mitchnick]

18z AI appears wetter. Start with this 6 hour panel

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501161800&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501191200

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Some beautiful powder has been falling here the last half hour. I love these little events that no one expects anything from. Anything is a win. 

[WmsptWx]

Just got home from Alexandria. Heavy snow the whole way. I'm eyeballing about four inches so far and still coming down.

[MAG5035]

I’m nearing about 1.5” from the snow today. Temps have rebounded to 26ºF after starting today at 13ºF.

Some historical perspective on the upcoming cold snap next week from CTP:

Quote

Colder air will begin to filter into the region Saturday night
into Sunday as well, with a reinforcing shot of bitterly cold
air arriving Sunday night into Monday. Temperatures will bottom
out Tuesday, with highs running 20 to 30 degree below average.
Considering that late January is the climatological coldest time
of the year, highs that far below average means that we are in
for a significant bout of arctic air.

To put the upcoming cold in historical perspective, if the
forecast holds, about 80 hours with temperatures in the mid
teens or colder at Harrisburg and Williamsport rivals the cold
snap of Feb 1996 in terms of duration. For State College, 3 days
with highs of 12F or lower only happened once in the past 100
yrs, in Feb 1971. It did also happen a few times in the 1800s.

 

 

[AccuChris]

Another view of the 18z Euro AI QPF. Definitely another jump up


.

[WmsptWx]

I'm all-in on this coming cold and then I gotta tell ya, I'll be ready for spring lol

[2001kx]

Getting close to 2.5" here

[canderson]

21 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

I'm all-in on this coming cold and then I gotta tell ya, I'll be ready for spring lol

@Itstrainingtime is going to have to break out his windbreaker Tuesday and Wednesday. 

[mitchnick]

Nam will not show a hit this run because it pushes cold well east of models with a hit.

[Bubbler86]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Nam will not show a hit this run because it pushes cold well east of models with a hit.

A step back unfortunately. 

[anotherman]

It’s the NAM

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

A step back unfortunately. 

Who needs it? Lol

[canderson]

Rain Saturday then a shut off of precip in the coldest air in 25 years. Great stuff. 

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, canderson said:

Rain Saturday then a shut off of precip in the coldest air in 25 years. Great stuff. 

Not sure that is exactly what the prevailing  model trend is right now but it is on the table.

[Blizzard of 93]

So, let’s believe 1 model instead of the other 9 that show a decent to good potential event….

Sure, got it… lol!!!!!

[Albedoman]

1 hour ago, AccuChris said:

Another view of the 18z Euro AI QPF. Definitely another jump up
with  snow ratios between 15 to 20:1 with the cold temps ( low 20's) . fluffy and total accumulations between 8-12 inches in the LV on this map. Thats nice. easy to shovel too.

.

 

[Itstrainingtime]

23 minutes ago, canderson said:

Rain Saturday then a shut off of precip in the coldest air in 25 years. Great stuff. 

Are you Colin? 

[Bubbler86]

Rgem lining up with an early forming Vort as before.  Sunday white out.

[Bubbler86]

Even closer call for pa southers.  Low getting amped and riding close for comfort.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Even closer call for pa southers.  Low getting amped and riding close for comfort.

Boy that’s some heavy precip. I kinda don’t mind the rgem being amped. The eventual compromise option could be a great event.