Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[Superstorm]

This will probably adjust as it gets in better useful range. 

And it is t done moving NW


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[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

This will probably adjust as it gets in better useful range. 

Icon shifted NW quite a bit too so something to watch.  Least we forget that those of us on the M/D were just skunked by under modeled forcing to our NW. 

[AccuChris]

Measured just about an inch here in Lebanon. Was snowing moderately for a bit before but has left up. Roads caved as sun is setting


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[Bubbler86]

GFS Miller B's off the coast.  Several areas of LP but lowest goes from N SC to well off the coast between 15Z and 18Z Sun. 

[MAG5035]

43 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

 

There is a recent anti-Kuch theme in the MA, but if I post qpf someone is just going to post Kuch so here it is. 

 

Haha I wouldn’t worry about whatever they’re worried about. Kuchera is fine if one recognizes how the method is calculated and applies it to the thermal situation you have. Judging by a cmment or two down there some don’t want to go that extra little bit. Any rate neither 10:1 or Kuchera actually applies actual atmospheric physics (VV’s, etc).

Kuchera basically takes the warmest temp within the surface to 500mb level and cranks out a ratio via a math equation. Where it’s not the best choice is when there’s marginal surface temps (freezing or a degree or two above it will be too low) and significantly colder arctic air masses (it will put out unrealistically widespread areas of 20-30+:1) . Otherwise it does fairly well. The new really amped up RGEM that just came out dumped 9.1” at Harrisburg via 10:1. It also cranked out 9.1” via the Kuchera method as well. 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, MAG5035 said:

Haha I wouldn’t worry about whatever they’re worried about. Kuchera is fine if one recognizes how the method is calculated and applies it to the thermal situation you have. Judging by a cmment or two down there some don’t want to go that extra little bit. Any rate neither 10:1 or Kuchera actually applies actual atmospheric physics (VV’s, etc).

Kuchera basically takes the warmest temp within the surface to 500mb level and cranks out a ratio via a math equation. Where it’s not the best choice is when there’s marginal surface temps (freezing or a degree or two above it will be too low) and significantly colder arctic air masses (it will put out unrealistically widespread areas of 20-30+:1) . Otherwise it does fairly well. The new really amped up RGEM that just came dumped 9.1” at Harrisburg via 10:1. It also cranked out 9.1” via the Kuchera method as well. 

Haha, I am not worried about it but we have some cross posters.  I do feel some slight pressure to post Kuch unless it is a super obvious as there is taint toward posting the one that shows the most.   I am not of the opinion that we should go with qpf only maps as that does not account for mixed situations. 

[Superstorm]

Like where GFS is….more room for NW tweeks

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Superstorm said:

Like where GFS is….more room for NW tweeks


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Just need it to be more consolidated with the LP.  It had 3 different areas of LP in 3 panels on pivotal...3 hour between each. 

[Superstorm]

Got about an 1” of snow today. Nice little surprise.


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[mitchnick]

18z Gem Wowzer!

Yellow is 8" +/-

Orange is 10" +/-

[Itstrainingtime]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

18z Gem Wowzer!

Yellow is 8" +/-

Orange is 10" +/-

That as depicted is beautiful...however, I do not like ever being on the SE fringe of a snowfall map. The pain comes far too often in these situations. 

[Rd9108]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That as depicted is beautiful...however, I do not like ever being on the SE fringe of a snowfall map. The pain comes far too often in these situations. 

CMC is the only one to have the wave form that far west and be that amped. I just dont see how it doesn't trend to other guidance. I'd say somewhere between the gfs and rgem is what would be my guess. 

[Bubbler86]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

18z Gem Wowzer!

Yellow is 8" +/-

Orange is 10" +/-

Orange you glad you moved to Hanover? 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Rd9108 said:

CMC is the only one to have the wave form that far west and be that amped. I just dont see how it doesn't trend to other guidance. I'd say somewhere between the gfs and rgem is what would be my guess. 

Eurochatgpt is not far off though cannot see all the details. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, Rd9108 said:

CMC is the only one to have the wave form that far west and be that amped. I just dont see how it doesn't trend to other guidance. I'd say somewhere between the gfs and rgem is what would be my guess. 

We shall see. Given a blend of all guidance today gives credence to your thought. 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That as depicted is beautiful...however, I do not like ever being on the SE fringe of a snowfall map. The pain comes far too often in these situations. 

Probably a blend between Canadians and Gfs, which gives you the Icon, more or less.

[Bubbler86]

Model PBP, not a forecast...back roads might not be clear, due to the artic instrusion, when this comes calling

 

[mitchnick]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Model PBP, not a forecast...back roads might not be clear, due to the artic instrusion, when this comes calling

 

I haven't even been looking at the lr.

[Bubbler86]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I haven't even been looking at the lr.

The south is.

[canderson]

Ends with .75” today. Pure fluff.

[MAG5035]

20 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Eurochatgpt is not far off though cannot see all the details. 

Here’s the QPF map for it, haha. There’s no snow maps for it available.. least on WB. Def still on a continued wetter trend vs the last couple runs in PA. 

[Bubbler86]

Has not snowed here all day but we are up to a mulch topper over the last 15 min.  

[paweather]

Where is @Blizzard of 93 he needs to reassure me lol

[DDweatherman]

30 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Here’s the QPF map for it, haha. There’s no snow maps for it available.. least on WB. Def still on a continued wetter trend vs the last couple runs in PA. 

Yes, looks solid. Good consistency for sure. 

[Voyager]

So who is PA Weather Action. Their article on the potential Sunday storm popped up on my Google news stories. Are they descent or no?

https://paweatheraction.com/scenarios-for-significant-snowstorm-possible-sunday-into-monday-in-pennsylvania/

[paweather]

5 minutes ago, Voyager said:

So who is PA Weather Action. Their article on the potential Sunday storm popped up on my Google news stories. Are they descent or no?

https://paweatheraction.com/scenarios-for-significant-snowstorm-possible-sunday-into-monday-in-pennsylvania/

Spam! Lol

[Bubbler86]

MA Board grab

 

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

MA Board grab

 

He'll with the Euro operational.  AI all the way baby...until it screws us, of course.

[pawatch]

Little over 1/2” today, some lite flurries when it was getting dark.

I got my snowblower out and blew my driveway off. It’s not melting and I didn’t want it packed and turn into ice. I probably could have used my leaf blower but I have 250’ of driveway. 
As usual a lot of wiggle wiggle with the models.

Thanks for your thoughts Mag!
Just watching this cold coming next week. Really going to be interesting watching some states trying to deal with all the cold.

[Bubbler86]

Sn+ and up to 3/4"