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Central PA Winter 2024/2025


Voyager
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10 minutes ago, canderson said:

It’s been a snow globe for a while but not sticking to the ground anywhere. 

Hmm. Everything is white here at work except for our campus. Our facilities team is second to none. Shout out to them. They also keep the hill coming up to the plant clear, far better than Penn Dot. 

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Definitely still a good bit of discrepancy with this Sunday thing. Shortwave timing is important in addition to what the models are doing with it. Canadian/RGEM seem to be a bit faster than the GFS and Euro, which in turn erupts the wave through most of C-PA as the arctic boundary hasn’t pressed further SE given the faster timing. I wasn’t really optimistic about much of anything in PA from this originally but I do think the chances of at least the LSV seeing a bout of accumulating snow are looking increasingly more possible. 

Surprised not much mention of the cold behind. Mon night-Thurs morning are going to be very cold.. culminating with I think Wed morning being the coldest morning of all with an already noteworthy arctic airmass in place and a radiational cooling setup that particular night. Euro in particular literally rivals January 94 in western PA with the morning lows. Not sure it’ll be that extreme but I do think the GFS may be a bit too warm in areas that have snow on the ground. Obviously if that Sunday wave puts snow down in the Sus Valley then that will invite the opportunity for more widespread below zero low potential there on Tues/Wed night. 

For example sake here was what the Euro has 12z Wed morning. (These are actual 2m temps in ºF)

image.thumb.png.586208823c40eeab2ab4b34cc3ed32f2.png

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2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Euro is carp in my eyes. All over the place. No matter what happens Sunday, you'll be able to find 1 run out of 20 that it had it right.

Last event people treated it like steady eddy or whatever crazy nickname it had.  Just part of the entire 12Z suit and a dampening of the euphoria for now.    

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