Blizzard of 93 Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: The cold this week is going to outperform the cold last week. Believe me. Models have been going colder and colder. Yes, CTP has highs on Thursday & Friday barely getting to freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Good morning, good to see the GEFS on board. The 6z GFS still looks decent. Problem with the Gefs map I posted and the maps you posted are the 10:1 ratios. We won't see that. A lot of white rain for the umpteenth time over the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Yes, CTP has highs on Thursday & Friday barely getting to freezing. 6z Gfs operational is a surprisingly cold run vs recent ones....fwiw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 20 minutes ago, mitchnick said: The cold this week is going to outperform the cold last week. Believe me. Models have been going colder and colder. Probably overdone but the warmth early week and the cold later week are probably smoothed out too much on the zones. Some warmer locales may hit 60 three days this week (counting today) and would not surprise me to see some 70's just south of us. Then quite cold Fri/Sat Am has been advertised for several days now. The good ole negative zero over Chambersburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 6z Gfs operational is a surprisingly cold run vs recent ones....fwiw? We should be returning to a more favorable pattern, especially a few days before Christmas & beyond. The Look at the end of the 6z GFS is interesting with a storm system in the central states with a wall of highs across the northern states. It would have been interesting to see how that may have impacted Christmas in our region if the run extended another day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 PS- Bama should be gone. Here is how I would do the playoffs. 1-Oregon (defense very questionable though. Two teams in the playoffs have scored more than 30 each on them) 2-Boise (good chance GA gets this spot and Boise is 3 but I think Boise is arguably the best team in the nation as can be argued for several teams) 3-GA 4-AZ State 5-Texas 6-ND (beat 4 ranked teams) 7-OSU 8-PSU (Lost to OSU recently) 9-TN 10-Clemson 11-IN 12-SMU 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 22 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: We should be returning to a more favorable pattern, especially a few days before Christmas & beyond. The Look at the end of the 6z GFS is interesting with a storm system in the central states with a wall of highs across the northern states. It would have been interesting to see how that may have impacted Christmas in our region if the run extended another day or two. Maybe on the end of the run idea. Looks like a gradient setup and based on 850's, north of a horizontal line thru NYC would be the place to be. But it's all speculation that will be moot in 6 hrs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 33 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Probably overdone but the warmth early week and the cold later week are probably smoothed out too much on the zones. Some warmer locales may hit 60 three days this week (counting today) and would not surprise me to see some 70's just south of us. Then quite cold Fri/Sat Am has been advertised for several days now. The good ole negative zero over Chambersburg. Only with snow cover would those numbers, or anything reasonably close to them, be possible imho. That GEM is a real gem with overnight lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 13 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Only with snow cover would those numbers, or anything reasonably close to them, be possible imho. That GEM is a real gem with overnight lows. Yes, I was thinking 5-15 re: a mesh between the Gem and the others...which has happened several time's this year. EC and Icon are both into the teens for colder areas. It would take some of getting to -15 for MDT to get to 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 19 degrees this morning I wasn’t expecting that. Edit: Clear blue skies not a cloud in the sky. And still snow pack. Picture taken at 10:00 am 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Yes, CTP has highs on Thursday & Friday barely getting to freezing. ok thats a change cause late fri it was showing upper 40s for my area in Southern PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 14 minutes ago, pawatch said: 19 degrees this morning I wasn’t expecting that. forecast low was 28 we only got down to 34 thanks to cloud cover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 8 Author Share Posted December 8 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: 43 this AM. Elevation takes it on the chops again for the season. Lots of 30's at NWS airports. I thought Oregon got a lot of the calls last night. Good to see a game with few penalties but outcome may have been different if calls were more even. Wow! That's quite warm. Here in Tamaqua I'm sitting at 25.7 degrees currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 53 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: PS- Bama should be gone. Here is how I would do the playoffs. 1-Oregon (defense very questionable though. Two teams in the playoffs have scored more than 30 each on them) 2-Boise (good chance GA gets this spot and Boise is 3 but I think Boise is arguably the best team in the nation as can be argued for several teams) 3-GA 4-AZ State 5-Texas 6-ND (beat 4 ranked teams) 7-OSU 8-PSU (Lost to OSU recently) 9-TN 10-Clemson 11-IN 12-SMU I think the committee will be looking hard at potential second round match ups. I think that keeps PSU out of the 8-9 match up because if PSU would win, that would set up a second round Oregon-PSU game in 2 weeks, which I don’t think the committee will want to happen for ratings, etc. Same thing with Georgia-Texas, they will keep them on separate side of the bracket to avoid an early rematch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 3 minutes ago, Ruin said: ok thats a change cause late fri it was showing upper 40s for my area in Southern PA Thursday & Friday should be cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 12 minutes ago, Voyager said: Wow! That's quite warm. Here in Tamaqua I'm sitting at 25.7 degrees currently. I posted the WU so people would stop doubting my readings. It is super insulting when people do that (you did not, commenting why I post the maps.). At times this winter and fall have not been good to elevation around here. One of my Adams county spotters was in the upper 40's this AM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I think the committee will be looking hard at potential second round match ups. I think that keeps PSU out of the 8-9 match up because if PSU would win, that would set up a second round Oregon-PSU game in 2 weeks, which I don’t think the committee will want to happen for ratings, etc. Same thing with Georgia-Texas, they will keep them on separate side of the bracket to avoid an early rematch. Fair point, just have issues putting PSU ahead of OSU. OSU's score against Oregon was also closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I posted the WU so people would stop doubting my readings. It is super insulting when people do that (you did not, commenting why I post the maps.). At times this winter and fall have not been good to elevation around here. One of my Adams county spotters was in the upper 40's this AM. That's fair. But are there any other ways you'd prefer we insult you? I'd hate for you to take the insults personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: That's fair. But are there any other ways you'd prefer we insult you? I'd hate for you to take the insults personally. Yea, send me donations and insult my ability's to make money. Insulting to me for needing it but I would prefer that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 Gefs really are not a torch for us if you animate this. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=sfct_anom-p105090-imp&rh=2024120806&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 8 Author Share Posted December 8 44 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I posted the WU so people would stop doubting my readings. It is super insulting when people do that (you did not, commenting why I post the maps.). At times this winter and fall have not been good to elevation around here. One of my Adams county spotters was in the upper 40's this AM. Oh, I believe your reports. Just on my way to work and my route to Allentown, I see temp variations as much as 5 to 10 degrees (and more sometimes) from the valley floor where my employer is located and the top of the Blue Mountain just a mile away. Inversions are powerful things. Quite a few times when I worked out of Hazleton, it would be 30-35 degrees here in the morning in Tamaqua, and I'd get up there and it would be 20 degrees WARMER. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 12z NAM showing some back end snows Wednesday as the cold air catches up with the frontal wave. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 Today will be our 1st above normal temperature day in the last 12 days. Most spots should touch the low 50's. Mild weather will continue till Wednesday night when we turn sharply colder again with high temperatures both Thursday and Friday potentially staying below freezing. Rain chances both tomorrow and again Tuesday night though Wednesday could bring the area between and 1" to 2" of needed rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: Gefs really are not a torch for us if you animate this. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=sfct_anom-p105090-imp&rh=2024120806&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Looks like this guy agrees with me. And he posted after me so no games. https://x.com/burgwx/status/1865760465533722677 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 In fact, the way things are looking now, the greatest anomalous warmth in the next 2 weeks, and likely this month, will occur this week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 21 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: Managed to spike to 40 here in rou. Warmer higher up as it is 42 up the hill in pen mar. It is almost almost totally sunny here which is a big part of the spike. Someone may grab a 55-60 tomorrow. This is likely going to be a great call by Bubbler - at 10:45am it is 53 here already... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 Only thing I'll add to PSU talk for now is how disappointed I was in our defense. Hanging a 37 spot (should have been more) on a team that gives up less than 17/game was great. For that to not be enough was not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 I was going to stay quiet but where the hell was Penn States defense last night. Oregon is good but come on they played good all year and to end it like that was ridiculous. Tom Allen do better! And 2 and yard and we throw a bomb down the field for an INT! Ugh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 37 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: This is likely going to be a great call by Bubbler - at 10:45am it is 53 here already... Eb nooners at the ren faire in MT hope. 51 and a little breezy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 Man oh man what a wild game last night. Credit to Oregon, they are a load to handle offensively, particularly on a fast indoor track like that. But as others have stated, disappointing that the defense couldn’t put out a better effort than that. I continue to believe Tom Allen is a major downgrade from Manny Diaz. The two picks were really the difference, especially the pick six. Drew also badly missed a few freebies that you just have to hit. Otherwise, he continued to show tremendous pocket presence and effective scrambling ability, in addition to poise and leadership. And that run game, boy oh boy, the offense wasn’t the issue. As for James, I don’t know what it’s going to take to have a team ready to play out of the gate but he needs to figure it out. The timeout with four minutes left when you have Oregon on the ropes and the clock is already stopped was unacceptable. Those timeouts are gold and need to be treated as such. Too often they aren’t. And I hate the decision to go for two at that juncture. Hate it. I’m a stats guy but I don’t give a damn what analytics says. I hate that move anytime a teams does it. I know it’s not this simple but the odds of converting two extra points are far greater than converting even one two point conversion. I hate it. The first half personal foul penalties loomed large as well, as discipline continues to be an issue. At some point James needs to start winning some of these big games, it’s that simple. I’m not one who thinks the officials cost anyone the game but let’s just say a lot of stuff went uncalled last night. I’ll leave it at that. Overall, I thought the guys showed a lot of grit and I think this team can hang with anyone in a year that lacks a truly great team. Bottom line, it will be one hell of a party in two weeks in Happy Valley and that alone is worth it. Onward. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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