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Central PA Winter 2024/2025


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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

As I just stated in last post, you'll see it "coming around" to the CMC/RGEM ish looks.  As you know, we're just looking for continuity and it adds to the "it might be a snowy Sunday" chatter here in SE 1/3 of Pa.  Fun for the game as well.  

I think a big part of this was what JB mentioned yesterday....the wave using a different front to form.    If the rgem is right though, the alerts need to go our soon.  Big difference between 4-5 and 8-12.

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

I think a big part of this was what JB mentioned yesterday....the wave using a different front to form.    If the rgem is right though, the alerts need to go our soon.  Big difference between 4-5 and 8-12.

Yeah, as it forms on the arctic boundary, it's a better solution as dynamically its got a little more fireworks to play with.  Based on spacing, IMO, there isnt much more it can do for us, as the flow is still progressive and pos tilt will limit top end, but 2-4 or 3-5" is just fine w/ many of us. 

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another upside (as we still think of how things can/and do go wrong), is that this one is forming on a formidable artcic press that has been long modeled, so the chance for the to taint is like zero %.  Only real way it can go poof would be only as a result of cold press coming quicker, which like never happens. 

Just something to chew on as well as your sammy. 

 

 

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14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I think a big part of this was what JB mentioned yesterday....the wave using a different front to form.    If the rgem is right though, the alerts need to go our soon.  Big difference between 4-5 and 8-12.

I'm sure the NWS will crush that theory... as they always do.

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Some JB thoughts this morning:

“But what is going on is the CANADIAN of all the operational models had the right idea that this was an arctic wave cyclogeneis where the vort max hit the tightening gradient that was coming in from the west and the low would wind up further west

It has never backed off since catching on though should correct a bit further east”

“But here is the lesson Until these features get into the plains you cant let models whiplash you Actually the old rule is when it passes 110 west So you gotta try to not get too crazy about runs. Its like a 5 star recruit. He can blow his knee out or transfer before he ever plays for your team. Let him get on the field”


.

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