Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[Blizzard of 93]

46 minutes ago, canderson said:

History repeats itself. 

This pattern has a lot of potential.

Many scenarios are in play for potential events over the next 2 weeks.

Plenty of cold in the pattern…it’s just a matter of timing up the precip.

[Ruin]

So serious question we have a artic front coming through tomorrow not a cold front. Temp tomorrow 30 some light snow but then on fri temp will make it all the way to 40? how can you call it a artic front if the temp goes up by 10? 

[Blizzard of 93]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

A lot of our larger snows come second half of met winter (and March but just keeping it to Met winter for this post.) On the info I posted earlier it shows the normal met winter snow at MDT by Jan 14th is only 7.8".  The norm is almost double at 15.1" for the second half of met winter from Jan 15th-end of Feb.  

Thanks for that post earlier on this.

As you said, MDT is only around 3 inches of snow below normal to date.

Lots of time to cash in.

[Bubbler86]

20 minutes ago, Ruin said:

So serious question we have a artic front coming through tomorrow not a cold front. Temp tomorrow 30 some light snow but then on fri temp will make it all the way to 40? how can you call it a artic front if the temp goes up by 10? 

There is a warm front coming through tomorrow which is simply a front based tail end of a vort passing by.   The vort has a cold or occluded/stationary front also attached to it in Southern Canada.  We are not getting a cold front at all tomorrow.  We will actually have Warm Air Advection tomorrow as the front approaches.   See this surface map:

 

 

[Yardstickgozinya]

4 minutes ago, Ruin said:

So serious question we have a artic front coming through tomorrow not a cold front. Temp tomorrow 30 some light snow but then on fri temp will make it all the way to 40? how can you call it a artic front if the temp goes up by 10? 

First off you can have multiple frontal passages in a day. Second, fronts are typically wedges. It can take a day or two for the changes to be felt at surface level or sometimes not at all especially with shallow cold fronts. Third you wouldn't want to call it a Mexican cold front when the sorce of the front is the pv.

[Ruin]

7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

There is a warm front coming through tomorrow which is simply a front based tail end of a vort passing by.   The vort has a cold or occluded front also attached to it in Southern Canada.  We are not getting a cold front at all tomorrow.  We will actually have Warm Air Advection tomorrow as the front approaches.   See this surface map:

 

 

Ty cause on the way home tonight the weather called it a artic front coming through tomorrow so this confused me 

[Ruin]

5 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

First off you can have multiple frontal passages in a day. Second, fronts are typically wedges. It can take a day or two for the changes to be felt at surface level or sometimes not at all especially with shallow cold fronts. Third you wouldn't want to call it a Mexican cold front when the sorce of the front is the pv.

I know you can have several in one day the radio weather just called it an artic front which got me confused when they said it will warm up to 40 on friday. I never heard of a cold front going through and the next day its warmer then the day before.

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, Ruin said:

Ty cause on the way home tonight the weather called it a artic front coming through tomorrow so this confused me 

There is probably a cold front coming Sat.   The front tomorrow is a bit of a wash IMO.    Temps not that much different but definitely not colder air whether polar or artic. 

[Blizzard of 93]

0z RGEM is on board for around 1 inch of snow in Harrisburg tomorrow.

[Bubbler86]

Icon comes NW a bit with the wave and has some waa level snows for the lsv sun

[Blizzard of 93]

ICON at 0z had a pretty significant move north from its 18z run.

Here’s the precip comparison.

0z top

18z bottom

[Blizzard of 93]

0z RGEM looks to be incoming for CTP at the end of the run on Sunday am.

[Blizzard of 93]

The 0z Canadian crushes CTP this run on Sunday, this time a little further southeast to get LSV in the bullseye.

[Itstrainingtime]

Some great runs in this model suite tonight for Sunday. Would love to have snow on the ground during the arctic blast.

[mitchnick]

Ukie Sunday

[Ruin]

4 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

There is probably a cold front coming Sat.   The front tomorrow is a bit of a wash IMO.    Temps not that much different but definitely not colder air whether polar or artic. 

well they did state thursday the artic front comes in with snow and fri its warmer 

[mahantango#1]

My NWS forecast for Sunday and Sunday night has no mention of snow.

 

 

Sunday  Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32.

 

Sunday Night  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12.

 

M.L.King Day  Mostly sunny, with a high near 18.

[Bubbler86]

6 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Some great runs in this model suite tonight for Sunday. Would love to have snow on the ground during the arctic blast.

The Euro is bouncing around so much I am having trouble keeping track of whose side it is on.  Back to a snowy solution at 6Z where it was not at 0Z.  Map from AM.

 

 

 

[Bubbler86]

15 this AM.  Cold first half of winter. 

[pawatch]

11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

15 this AM.  Cold first half of winter. 

17 here Bubb Thanks for all your updates.

[Voyager]

12 (11.7) is my so far low for Tamaqua.

8 in the colder valley near our company garage where I'm loading water at the moment.

[Bubbler86]

NWS is somewhat poo-pooey for Sunday but do mention plumes.    Will probably up their game if 12Z runs show any kind of consistency on a threat. 

Precipitation should taper off Sat night as the front exits the
area. However, some model guidance forms a wave of low pressure
along the slowing front. If this were to occur, a second period
of snow/rain is possible over Southern PA Sunday. The 12Z EPS
plumes only support POPS in the 30pct range over Southern PA.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

35 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The Euro is bouncing around so much I am having trouble keeping track of whose side it is on.  Back to a snowy solution at 6Z where it was not at 0Z.  Map from AM.

 

 

 

The Euro is coming back around to the the idea that the Canadian has had for the last few days. 
The GFS also has made a significant move north west over its last 3 runs.

I still like where we sit for a solid Advisory level event in the LSV on Sunday.

[Blizzard of 93]

The Canadians are not backing down on the Sunday chance.

The 6z RGEM has a significant chance underway on Sunday at the end of its 84 hour run for most of CTP.

[Blizzard of 93]

Looking over the overnight model runs, there are more chances for Winter storms for us towards the end of next week.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

First things first…

How is the Clipper looking for today?

[mahantango#1]

38 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

15 this AM.  Cold first half of winter. 

My low was 9.7

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Looking over the overnight model runs, there are more chances for Winter storms for us towards the end of next week.

 

GFS eye candy. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 15.  Glad to see some increased potential for Sunday, albeit still a long way from settling things.  Today's potential perhaps a little less robust but most of us should still see enough to whiten things up for a bit.  Should see flakes flying prior to lunch.  

[Mount Joy Snowman]

I'm on the fence for Sunday but once we get confirmation that the NAVGEM and JMA are on board I'll be all in.