Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[Mount Joy Snowman]

45 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

12z NAM still trying to show some LSV snow love


.

The NAM has been very persistent in wanting us to have something more than mood flakes tomorrow.  Other hi-res models seem to be catching on a bit as well.  Temps should be sufficient for stickage, even midday.  Ground should be nice and cold from these nights leading up to it.  Tomorrow could be a bit of a surprise day if we're lucky.

[mahantango#1]

My coal usage so far this month is 8.33% higher than compared to the same time period of January 2024. It has been a cold month so far.

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

My coal usage so far this month is 8.33% higher than compared to the same time period of January 2024. It has been a cold month so far.

[Itstrainingtime]

23 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Tomorrow could be a bit of a surprise day if we're lucky.

It's been a long time since I've been lucky. It will very much be a surprise. 

[Bubbler86]

5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It's been a long time since I've been lucky. It will very much be a surprise. 

It would not be so frigid if the AC was on less! 

[Bubbler86]

Icon mostly a miss for Sunday but it had lost it at 6Z so this is a positive step.  Eagles game still snowed on.  The low forms a better signature a bit south east of where we would like. 

 

[canderson]

12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

It would not be so frigid if the AC was on less! 

Friction creates warmth tho.  Someone’s a bad salesman! 

[Bubbler86]

GFS has a very delayed piece of energy forming/strengthening on the front, on to the Gem. 

[Bubbler86]

Gem has the trailing low much further west than the GFS and starts us off with mixed precip (snow west) Sunday AM.

 

 

 

[Bubbler86]

Actually too far west for the LSV Sunday afternoon.  Rain in SE parts.   A rainy Eagles game as depicted.

 

[Bubbler86]

10:1 

[Itstrainingtime]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

10:1 

Blizz digging out from a half foot while I "enjoy" a slushy coating. Sounds about right! 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Blizz digging out from a half foot while I "enjoy" a slushy coating. Sounds about right! 

I predict a WB Kuch map before the day is out...that shows closer to a 10".  LOL.

 

The one big difference I see between the GFS and CMC is the vort is on the 90 hour map where the GFS has a well defined 996 slp off the VA coast while the CMC just has an weak wave at the same time.  This allows the trailing piece of energy to form much faster and father west on the CMC due to spacing. 

[Bubbler86]

Mid Next Week the GFS has the Paweather 540 line visiting Cedar Key Florida while the CMC has a monster southern snow and ice storm brewing with the ridge much less amped down the coast and the 540 line visiting Pedro.   GFS does have a Gorilla in the Gulf brewing late week though.   People will like the GFS again for the next 6 hours. 

[GrandmasterB]

The tracking has not been boring. Looks like an active pattern with some chances over the next 5-10 days.

[mahantango#1]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

That's almost 10 degree difference.

[Bubbler86]

7 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

That's almost 10 degree difference.

27 -28% drop.  A big difference from the 8-9% raise in usage. 

[Bubbler86]

Despite almost full sun, a brutal 21 with a Windchill of 4 for nooners. 

 

[Voyager]

Late on the nooners here, but I'm up to 28 currently.

[Voyager]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

10:1 

Hell of a cutoff there. As depicted, I'll be loading water with a foot on the ground and taking it to Allentown where they barely have an inch.

[CarlislePaWx]

Going back to today's 6Z GFS, I'm surprised there's been virtually no comments about the upcoming cold wave following just behind whatever storm hits our region Sunday afternoon and evening.  The GFS takes our 500mb thickness down to below 500 decameters by Tuesday morning, bottoming out around 494 dm and then holding near 500 until early Wednesday morning.  When you combine 850 temperatures of -20 to -25 C with thicknesses below 500dm you have high temperatures no higher than the low teens or even below 10 above, with lows of zero to 5 below F, not taking into account any possible wind and wind chill.

The other wild thing is the Miller A later in the week bombs out, especially when reaching our latitude and on up to north of Maine.  It takes a 996 low and bombs it down to an unbelievable 947mb!  That's 15mb lower than the superstorm of '93.  The next 2 weeks look like they're going to be wild.

[Bubbler86]

In contrast to the Gem, the UK has a much weaker and later starting wave that misses some of the LSV for Sunday.  The Gem is mostly on its own right now pending the EC.