Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[Blizzard of 93]

5 minutes ago, paweather said:

It’s over it’s over mid 20 low 30 weather now blustery with snow on ground more to come Saturday. Albeit light we hope to capitalize soon before the Jan thaw. 

@mitchnick in the main thread commented in the last couple of hours that the latest Euro Weeklies lock in the gold through late January. The warm up in early February also looks muted according to the Weeklies.

[Blizzard of 93]

More good news from the Mid Atlantic thread. This afternoon @Bob Chill & @psuhoffman were commenting that the upcoming advertised pattern has similarities to the good Winters of 2014 & 2015.

[canderson]

41 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

We just missed a 6 to 10 inch snowstorm by less than 100 miles to the SOUTH of southern PA…

But yes, it’s obviously over…

What a joke 

Continual storm suppression is a pattern issue. It isn’t “over” but we’re missing prime climatology 

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, canderson said:

Continual storm suppression is a pattern issue. It isn’t “over” but we’re missing prime climatology 

I understand the frustration, but our prime snow climo is mid January to mid February.

[Blizzard of 93]

Back to the Saturday light event, here’s the 18z Euro.

[Blizzard of 93]

Someone in another thread earlier mentioned that these light nickel & dime events can help to make a difference in the seasonal snow total.

These 1.2 & .3 & .8 type of events can add up if you get several of them in a season.

Last season, MDT had 5 moderate events that added up to 18 inches. What was missing were the nickel & dime events that could have allowed the seasonal total to be more respectable.

My point is that I’m ok with the nickels & dimes as long as we get some meaningful storms along the way.

[paweather]

27 minutes ago, canderson said:

Continual storm suppression is a pattern issue. It isn’t “over” but we’re missing prime climatology 

I agree with you. This may be more of a southern snow winter but winter is at least alive this year. I am frustrated as while but I’ll take the joy right now that snow is on the ground and it’s cold. And we have 3 months left maybe just maybe we can get a bigger one or 2 coming up.

[WmsptWx]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

More good news from the Mid Atlantic thread. This afternoon @Bob Chill & @psuhoffman were commenting that the upcoming advertised pattern has similarities to the good Winters of 2014 & 2015.

This does seem like 2014 to me. It got cold right around Christmas and didn't let up until close to March.

[Bubbler86]

I think 1-2" in 48-60 hours would still be a win regardless of the future winter.

[paweather]

12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I think 1-2" in 48-60 hours would still be a win regardless of the future winter.

I agree 1-2 would be fine keep snow on the ground 

[Blizzard of 93]

@Itstrainingtime

It looks like @psuhoffman agrees with your assessment from yesterday, Lol!

[Itstrainingtime]

4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

@Itstrainingtime

It looks like @psuhoffman agrees with your assessment from yesterday, Lol!

That's what I said!

[Mount Joy Snowman]

17 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That's what I said!

He’s stealing your thunder! Now you’ve just got to steal some of his forecasting thunder ha. 

[Itstrainingtime]

35 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

@Itstrainingtime

It looks like @psuhoffman agrees with your assessment from yesterday, Lol!

He was just told to leave their forum.

Shocking.

[paweather]

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

He was just told to leave their forum.

Shocking.

Who? Ruin 

[WmsptWx]

Randy is going to start caring lol

[Blizzard of 93]

The 3k NAM is slightly more interesting for the Saturday am light event.

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 3k NAM is slightly more interesting for the Saturday am light event.

There would still be a little more to go if the run went past 60 hours.

[Bubbler86]

35 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

There would still be a little more to go if the run went past 60 hours.

I think 2-4 here (most of this sub), if the NS Vort can get close enough, is not out of question. 

[Blizzard of 93]

16 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I think 2-4 here (most of this sub), if the NS Vort can get close enough, is not out of question. 

Agreed, there is a decent amount of moisture available if the 2 streams can play together nicely or at least not fight each other off.

[MAG5035]

10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I think 2-4 here (most of this sub), if the NS Vort can get close enough, is not out of question. 

It would likely only take a swath of one to two tenths QPF to get there. Thermals are great for high ratio snows (potentially in the 20:1 realm) with most of PA residing at or near -8ºC at 850ºC and -10ºC and lower at 700mb. That’s what I’m eyeing out of this event, a potential swath of 2-4” snows where some marginally better forcing aloft coincides with the nice thermal column. Sus Valley is the question area right now for me, though tonight’s NAM looks better so far.  I def could see the shadowing effect occurring in a weaker interaction with the northern stream as the southern shortwave ejects out towards us and the SW flow downslopes off the mountains, especially as a secondary develops and tightens the remaining precip down to the south. 

[Voyager]

So I'm not as weather savvy as some of you so I'm wondering, why are we getting these consistent, unrelenting high winds? Usually we have a windy day (or two) after a storm, but then they subside. The cold I can handle, even though it sucks when you haul water for a living, but the wind that's going along with it is just brutal. 

[pawatch]

16 degrees this morning, 5mph wind, 14 mph gusts

[MAG5035]

1 hour ago, Voyager said:

So I'm not as weather savvy as some of you so I'm wondering, why are we getting these consistent, unrelenting high winds? Usually we have a windy day (or two) after a storm, but then they subside. The cold I can handle, even though it sucks when you haul water for a living, but the wind that's going along with it is just brutal. 

We’ve had a persistent NW cyclonic flow via the deep low in the 50/50 realm being locked in by blocking regime in place..recently reinforced by Monday’s storm. Look for another windy day today in C-PA…especially eastern and northeastern zones, where the neighboring Poconos counties actually are under wind advisories today. High pressure builds in tonight/tomorrow ahead of the likely light snowfall Friday Night, and winds should finally settle down. 

[mahantango#1]

2 hours ago, Voyager said:

So I'm not as weather savvy as some of you so I'm wondering, why are we getting these consistent, unrelenting high winds? Usually we have a windy day (or two) after a storm, but then they subside. The cold I can handle, even though it sucks when you haul water for a living, but the wind that's going along with it is just brutal. 

I'm sick of these winds. It's day, after day, after day.

[Voyager]

37 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

I'm sick of these winds. It's day, after day, after day.

Me too. It sucks as they blow out the hand torches we use to thaw out the caps and valves on the hoses and trailers.

[Blizzard of 93]

6z NAMs improved just a bit for the light event Saturday am.

[mahantango#1]

53 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Me too. It sucks as they blow out the hand torches we use to thaw out the caps and valves on the hoses and trailers.

Isn't there a way to use air pressure to open up the valve, (you might need about 100psi) by blowing into the valve in back of tanker? Thats what our guys did when tankers came in with frozen valves with product in the tanker.

[Bubbler86]

13 this AM. 

[mahantango#1]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

13 this AM. 

17 here. With unrelenting wind. Even though I live at the bottom of the valley along the creek I don't usually get the strong gusts. I see the trees moving about 30ft. up. But in certain wind events those strong winds make it to the valley floor and I get them.