Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[Itstrainingtime]

MU take the weekend system further:

As far as snow, the potential exists for another winter storm this Friday night into Saturday. Details are highly uncertain and impossible to finesse at this distance, but odds favor another "light-to-moderate event" across northern MD, southeastern PA and the Lower Susquehanna Valley. There are three pieces of energy involved in the setup that need to interact, or "phase," at the right place and time for a major storm to develop along the Eastern Seaboard. The likelihood of this occurring is very low, especially with the ridge axis over the Intermountain West oriented from southwest-to-northeast on Friday. Strong, northwesterly flow to the east of the ridge will tend to shunt the system out-to-sea on Saturday and rip the upper-level energy within the Jet Stream's southern branch apart. As a result, the system won't be able to intensify or "make the turn" up the East Coast due to the unfavorable wind flow pattern across the nation (see below). Typically, ridge axes oriented in a north-south fashion are present over the western U.S. during major, East Coast snowstorms. The flow around these ridges allows troughs/storm systems to deepen in the Gulf of Mexico and along the East Coast. Essentially, northerly flow out of Canada pushes Arctic air into the base of the trough, while southerly flow from the Gulf and western Atlantic causes the Jet Stream to bulge northward ahead of the surface low pressure system. As a result, the east-west temperature gradient strengthens, causing the trough to deepen and surface low to intensify. In this case, there will be less contrast in the wind direction ahead of vs. behind the trough (i.e. west-southwesterly vs. northwesterly), so the east-west temperature gradient won't change that much. Thus, I expect a relatively weak area of low pressure to move east-northeastward along the U.S. Gulf Coast from Thursday night into Friday before ultimately exiting the Carolina coastline Saturday morning.

What does that mean for our region? Well, I currently anticipate a 6- to perhaps 12-hour period of generally light-to-moderate snow later Friday evening into Saturday morning. Once again, this will be an all-snow event from the I-95 corridor points north and west, and snow-to-liquid ratios should be on the order of 12-15:1 with temperatures in the 20s. Roadways will quickly turn snow-packed and slippery, but at least this system will come on a weekend and be less impactful to many people. Behind the storm, skies should partially clear Saturday afternoon, and northwesterly winds of 12-25 mph will likely accompany highs in the low 30s. A bubble of high pressure should then settle into the central Appalachians and southern mid-Atlantic States from Sunday into Monday, so there will likely be a one- or two-day reprieve from the gusty winds and frigid air. Instead, partial sunshine and light winds should accompany highs in the mid 30s both Sunday and Monday afternoons, allowing snow and slush to melt off roadways. Don't get used to it, though. As mentioned above, another reinforcing shot of frigid air is "waiting in the wings" and will arrive by the middle of next week. Warm-weather lovers like myself have nothing to be happy about or look forward to for awhile.. ☹️ -- Elliott

[WmsptWx]

1 hour ago, paweather said:

yeah but wind is part of winter. LOL. 

Winder

[WmsptWx]

Dual season kicks off in earnest tonight and those fn pieces of shit from Tussey Mountain are in town. If these kids want to show their collective conjones, they'd roll the mats outside where the wind is ripping and howling and it is currently 23°F. I suspect the real feel is somewhere between "this sucks" and "f this."

 

I keep telling myself the snow is nice and pitchers and catchers report in like 40 days. 

[Superstorm]

MU take the weekend system further:

As far as snow, the potential exists for another winter storm this Friday night into Saturday. Details are highly uncertain and impossible to finesse at this distance, but odds favor another "light-to-moderate event" across northern MD, southeastern PA and the Lower Susquehanna Valley. There are three pieces of energy involved in the setup that need to interact, or "phase," at the right place and time for a major storm to develop along the Eastern Seaboard. The likelihood of this occurring is very low, especially with the ridge axis over the Intermountain West oriented from southwest-to-northeast on Friday. Strong, northwesterly flow to the east of the ridge will tend to shunt the system out-to-sea on Saturday and rip the upper-level energy within the Jet Stream's southern branch apart. As a result, the system won't be able to intensify or "make the turn" up the East Coast due to the unfavorable wind flow pattern across the nation (see below). Typically, ridge axes oriented in a north-south fashion are present over the western U.S. during major, East Coast snowstorms. The flow around these ridges allows troughs/storm systems to deepen in the Gulf of Mexico and along the East Coast. Essentially, northerly flow out of Canada pushes Arctic air into the base of the trough, while southerly flow from the Gulf and western Atlantic causes the Jet Stream to bulge northward ahead of the surface low pressure system. As a result, the east-west temperature gradient strengthens, causing the trough to deepen and surface low to intensify. In this case, there will be less contrast in the wind direction ahead of vs. behind the trough (i.e. west-southwesterly vs. northwesterly), so the east-west temperature gradient won't change that much. Thus, I expect a relatively weak area of low pressure to move east-northeastward along the U.S. Gulf Coast from Thursday night into Friday before ultimately exiting the Carolina coastline Saturday morning.

What does that mean for our region? Well, I currently anticipate a 6- to perhaps 12-hour period of generally light-to-moderate snow later Friday evening into Saturday morning. Once again, this will be an all-snow event from the I-95 corridor points north and west, and snow-to-liquid ratios should be on the order of 12-15:1 with temperatures in the 20s. Roadways will quickly turn snow-packed and slippery, but at least this system will come on a weekend and be less impactful to many people. Behind the storm, skies should partially clear Saturday afternoon, and northwesterly winds of 12-25 mph will likely accompany highs in the low 30s. A bubble of high pressure should then settle into the central Appalachians and southern mid-Atlantic States from Sunday into Monday, so there will likely be a one- or two-day reprieve from the gusty winds and frigid air. Instead, partial sunshine and light winds should accompany highs in the mid 30s both Sunday and Monday afternoons, allowing snow and slush to melt off roadways. Don't get used to it, though. As mentioned above, another reinforcing shot of frigid air is "waiting in the wings" and will arrive by the middle of next week. Warm-weather lovers like myself have nothing to be happy about or look forward to for awhile..  -- Elliott

He seems kinda of excited for this weekend. I know he is a warminster but at least is liking the potential for accumulating snow.


.

[AccuChris]

18z GFS kuchera snow map for the weekend event


.

[Jns2183]

I honestly (selfishly?) thought that I had the best screen name on this entire board. "Itstrainingtime" incorporates 3 of my biggest passions in life: 1) Helping others grow professionally, 2) My love for all things steam trains, and 3) training storms during the summer. If I say so myself, I thought it was super clever.
But...but you have me beat. I fully concede. There is no one on this board with a more appropriate name than you have. Given 99% of your posts...well, your name says it all. 

I actually met someone who a decade ago went on the Rossiya train from Moscow to Vladivostok over a week. Besides getting an Amtrak month pass and traveling around the US, this would be my second dream trip.

Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

[Bubbler86]

Very similar to the Euro IMO.  Not a phase but some co mingling. 

[WmsptWx]

11 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

I actually met someone who a decade ago went on the Rossiya train from Moscow to Vladivostok over a week. Besides getting an Amtrak month pass and traveling around the US, this would be my second dream trip.

Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk
 

Aside from the whole Russia part. 

[WmsptWx]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Very similar to the Euro IMO.  Not a phase but some co mingling. 

They're "involved." Give it a few runs and they'll escalate to finger play. 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, WmsptWx said:

They're "involved." Give it a few runs and they'll escalate to finger play. 

Shocker

 

How about a GFS snow map.  No time to fully break down but quick look seems like Nam as well

 

 

[WmsptWx]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Shocker

 

How about a GFS snow map.  No time to fully break down but quick look seems like Nam as well

 

 

The hole over Cameron county and the hole over, is that Pike county, are like... an inch and a half? 

[Superstorm]

They're "involved." Give it a few runs and they'll escalate to finger play. 

It ain’t far from something more.


.

[paweather]

32 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

18z GFS kuchera snow map for the weekend event


.

Not too bad

[paweather]

36 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

He seems kinda of excited for this weekend. I know he is a warminster but at least is liking the potential for accumulating snow.


.

I like this too.

[WmsptWx]

8 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

It ain’t far from something more.


.

I gotta think Miller Jane Rottencrotch's perdy pink panties are in danger.

[Superstorm]

I gotta think Miller Jane Rottencrotch's perdy pink panties are in danger.

lol


.

[canderson]

CTP has underdone wind by 15 mph all day (they still say gust to 25 as it’s constantly 35-40). So tomorrow and Thursday when they have winds in the mid 30s it’ll actually be close to 50. Cool 

[Itstrainingtime]

Looks like our neighboring subforums north and south of us have punted the weekend. Sorta surprising.

[Blizzard of 93]

6 minutes ago, canderson said:

CTP has underdone wind by 15 mph all day (they still say gust to 25 as it’s constantly 35-40). So tomorrow and Thursday when they have winds in the mid 30s it’ll actually be close to 50. Cool 

I thought of you when I needed to retrieve my recycling bin this evening when the wind made it wander down the block.

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Looks like our neighboring subforums north and south of us have punted the weekend. Sorta surprising.

I think some of them were hoping that those few massive HECS runs from a few days ago would come to fruition. Now that it’s likely at best to be a possible light to moderate event, some have lost interest in the neighboring sub forums.

If they temper expectations, this Friday night into Saturday could reasonably end up producing a solid Advisory event, even possibly for us in the LSV.

[mahantango#1]

5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Looks like our neighboring subforums north and south of us have punted the weekend. Sorta surprising.

All this opportunity for sizeable storms in this cold January is slowly slipping away.

[Blizzard of 93]

5 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

All this opportunity for sizeable storms in this cold January is slowly slipping away.

Lol, it’s January 7th for goodness sake!

[Bubbler86]

Seems like some punter warm ups happening? 

[paweather]

17 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Lol, it’s January 7th for goodness sake!

Exactly! 

[mahantango#1]

22 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Seems like some punter warm ups happening? 

So far these snowstorms are wide left.

[paweather]

Cotton Bowl is in trouble 

[mahantango#1]

37 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Lol, it’s January 7th for goodness sake!

In 3 days a third of January will be behind us.

[WmsptWx]

18 minutes ago, paweather said:

Cotton Bowl is in trouble 

I'd laugh like hell if at the last minute they relocated to Pasadena. 

[Blizzard of 93]

26 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

In 3 days a third of January will be behind us.

Our prime climo for snow is mid January to mid February.

Long way to go…

[canderson]

29 minutes ago, paweather said:

Cotton Bowl is in trouble 

Nah they held the Super Bowl in a major, major ice storm 

This will mostly be melted by friday midday.