Itstrainingtime Posted Monday at 08:27 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:27 PM My favorite beach town looking amazing - love snow at the beach: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lq15dNFXISw 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Monday at 08:28 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:28 PM 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I haven' seen a flake in over 4 hours. Clouds and 28 currently. Stoped a while ago here. I guess the Rap and Hrrr will be right with their forecast of no snow this pm and wrong with their earlier forecasts of decent snow. Odd...that never happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Monday at 08:31 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:31 PM 18z gives us nothing more. We dun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted Monday at 08:40 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 08:40 PM So we got about one inch here in Tamaqua. Roads got a bit funky for a couple hours, but overall it wasn't that bad. Scared drivers held me up more than the snow itself would have. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted Monday at 08:49 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:49 PM 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: Interesting and obvious thoughts in the MA forum. I say obvious because they are but not sure I had thought of it yet. We were so gung ho on using Kuch because of the antecedent cold air but if one looks at the 10-1 maps maybe the model outputs were a bit more realistic. QPF in Lanco was 2-3" on a lot of outputs....10-1 that is 2-3" of snow. It is almost 30 degrees here right now. Kuch may have over done it this time (sometimes Kuch is lower of course but obviously much higher up this way for this storm.) I think their lower ratios down there were more of a result of what was going on aloft, especially in the mid levels. Here’s some mesoanalysis maps at 11z this morning one at 700mb and the other at 850mb. At 700mb, a lot of that subforum was between -2º to -4ºC and was so overnight during the bulk of their snowfall. Cold enough to maintain the snow column of course but those are very warm temps at that level, and would have promoted poor snow crystal growth. They had the better forcing at the 850mb level and 850mb temps were roughly the same as the 700mb temps. 700mb at 11z 850mb at 11z These 850mb and 700mb features were also fairly far to the north, especially the 700mb low.. which was why the best lift probably ended up where it did this morning. I’ve mentioned the secondary max a couple times since Friday, and noted the Euro had it about where it actually ended up on its 12z run yesterday. I didn’t anticipate the big separation between the two though. I expected the 700mb forcing to be in position to boost totals in the bottom two tiers of PA counties. I also expected the meso models to at least pick up on this stuff a little bit prior to the event arriving. They really didn’t.. the northern PA band ended up being more of a nowcasting deal. This was already a fairly progressive system given the setup and positive trough orientation, and I think it just ended up being more so in the end. On 1/5/2025 at 2:31 PM, MAG5035 said: One thing at the mesoscale level I noticed on the 12z Euro is that despite it remaining on the lighter side with overall snowfall it managed to have a secondary band of enhanced QPF that extended from Pittsburgh to Clearfield to Williamsport, giving our northern folks in those spots approx 2-4”. Stuff like that will be need watched for on the meso models as we get close to start time. On 1/3/2025 at 1:49 PM, MAG5035 said: I’m not budging from my original thinking quite yet of advisory snows I-80 south and warning snow potential in the bottom two tiers of counties across C-PA. I may eventually concede one or both of those tiers but I want to see the short range play out more, as we’re just barely into range of the NAM/RGEM and not even into the longer HRRR range. That stuff is going to see how the overall precip shield sets up better. I think we’ll still eventually see a more widespread snow shield into PA even if it’s lighter snows and we concede the whole swath of 6”+ to the DC folks. But if that happens the northern tier above 80 and especially NE PA might not see much. Other thing to consider may be a secondary swath of higher snowfall due to better ratios. Lift would be further aloft (700mb level or a bit higher) in a further south solution and temps are plenty cold up there for good snow growth in that scenario with this storm and on down the column as well (less than -8ºC at 850mb on the Euro). 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted Monday at 08:51 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:51 PM 4 hours ago, WmsptWx said: It would appear as if the snow has stopped. How much did you end up with this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Monday at 08:53 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:53 PM Looking ahead to the weekend - Elliott went with 30% POPs for Lanco on Friday night and Saturday. Probably a prudent call at this time and given the guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted Monday at 08:55 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:55 PM 2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: How much did you end up with this morning? Probably 2.5" if I had to say from eyeballing. It was enough to undo any clearing attempts that was made after Saturday morning's shock event. It was more than I expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 09:06 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:06 PM Masontown to Holidaysburg band, at least on radar, seems to be putting down some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted Monday at 09:13 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:13 PM Long range 18z NAM looks juicy for next weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 09:16 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:16 PM 9 minutes ago, AccuChris said: Long range 18z NAM looks juicy for next weekend . Will chime in with some others who said it, without a phase, how does that come up the coast? Not directed at your post, model discussion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 09:29 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:29 PM Hanover Toyota just told me they are closing early due to the ULL coming through (not joking) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted Monday at 09:33 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:33 PM German house model kickin off HH with a bang. Tryin to join weekend party 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Monday at 09:34 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:34 PM Radar looking better again. 18z Rgem gives us between .5-2". I always thought Rap and Hrrr lousy, and I'm reassured by today my prior thought were closer to right than wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Monday at 09:35 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:35 PM 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Hanover Toyota just told me they are closing early due to the ULL coming through (not joking) I wonder which one over there is the snow weenie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted Monday at 09:46 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:46 PM 18z ICON close to a phase for the weekend as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Monday at 09:47 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:47 PM If I didn't know any better, I'd say were going to do okay here the next few hours @Bubbler86 @mitchnick based on the radar. Filling in nicely and some heavier stuff to the WNW. Couple that with high ratios and good growth and 20dbz returns should make for pretty heavy snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted Monday at 09:48 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:48 PM Will chime in with some others who said it, without a phase, how does that come up the coast? Not directed at your post, model discussion. It likely doesnt come up at all and will be a southern slider wave. Need that southern shortwave to come out in full or at least a big enough piece to let the northern branch dive into it and take on a negative tilt. Bottom line is the players are there and the GFS has shown what COULD happen if it does phase. Who knows if it will or wont…yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 09:48 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:48 PM Just now, DDweatherman said: If I didn't know any better, I'd say were going to do okay here the next few hours @Bubbler86 @mitchnick based on the radar. Filling in nicely and some heavier stuff to the WNW. Couple that with high ratios and good growth and 20dbz returns should make for pretty heavy snow. Radar does look good. Snow has commenced here albeit light so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 09:49 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:49 PM Just now, AccuChris said: It likely doesnt come up at all and will be a southern slider wave. Need that southern shortwave to come out in full or at least a big enough piece to let the northern branch dive into it and take on a negative tilt. Bottom line is the players are there and the GFS has shown what COULD happen if it does phase. Who knows if it will or wont…yet . Agreed, I just did not see that happening with that 500H panel on the Nam. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted Monday at 09:54 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:54 PM Agreed, I just did not see that happening with that 500H panel on the Nam. Ironically, we may not want the whole piece to come out quickly as one lobe as it could phase too fast and try and cut inland. Now there is definitely blocking which helps but there is no doubt there will be a juiced up southern branch and energy diving in from Canada. Not more we can ask for at this point…other than a chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Monday at 09:58 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:58 PM 3 minutes ago, AccuChris said: Ironically, we may not want the whole piece to come out quickly as one lobe as it could phase too fast and try and cut inland. Now there is definitely blocking which helps but there is no doubt there will be a juiced up southern branch and energy diving in from Canada. Not more we can ask for at this point…other than a chance . I'd actually take my chances with the blocking and antecedent airmass. If it goes over Salisbury a lot of us still get a lot of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 10:05 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:05 PM If that radar presentation holds together, Harrisburg could soon be seeing Mod- Heavy Snow during rush hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted Monday at 10:06 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:06 PM My initial thoughts with the end of the week system is I think there will be at least a wave of lighter snows that moves through the commonwealth as the southern system over system ejects out and there’s a least some interaction with the northern stream. Euro hangs it back and northern stream diving in ahead shears the southern energy out. GFS has been trying to phase it, and through 102hr it looks like the 18z GFS is going to really be quite a solution. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Monday at 10:06 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:06 PM Just now, Bubbler86 said: If that radar presentation holds together, Harrisburg could soon be seeing Mod- Heavy Snow during rush hour. Flurries just started here. I think radar looks decent for all of us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted Monday at 10:07 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:07 PM 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: If that radar presentation holds together, Harrisburg could soon be seeing Mod- Heavy Snow during rush hour. The state closed physical offices as did most places and all schools - not much traffic today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted Monday at 10:13 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:13 PM 18z GFS hanging on to the big storm idea Saturday it seems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted Monday at 10:18 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:18 PM 1 hour ago, WmsptWx said: Probably 2.5" if I had to say from eyeballing. It was enough to undo any clearing attempts that was made after Saturday morning's shock event. It was more than I expected. You might have a chance at some more surprise bands the next couple days. High res models are showing a Huron connected band developing Wednesday with a favorable alignment through your general area and perhaps into State College again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted Monday at 10:26 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:26 PM 5 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: You might have a chance at some more surprise bands the next couple days. High res models are showing a Huron connected band developing Wednesday with a favorable alignment through your general area and perhaps into State College again. Nothing I love more than a good Huron connection. Speaking of the Lakes, I don’t think we mentioned in here at all the 60+ inches some places north of Syracuse received this past week. Impressive. I know I mentioned way back liking the southern Tug region but wasn’t sure if we circled back to any actual totals. Also, yes I am aware this is the central PA forum haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 10:26 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:26 PM The WSW and WAA's are still in effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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