Mount Joy Snowman Posted Monday at 06:23 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:23 PM Total here is 2.1" as flurries have stopped and skies are brightening a bit. We'll see if we can add anything further this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 06:31 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:31 PM 52 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: I don't feel anything was that abnormal with the 700mb and 850mb FGEN except for we are more used to it occurring in a coastal and having a more sw-ne orientation. The HRRR coming so far north last night was definitely a sign since the 700mb FGEN seems to set up on the northern edge of the precipitation. The mesoanaylais from late last night definitely showed the forcing there setting up around I-80. It's all amplified by the precipitation moving parallel to the forcing. Lots of times in coastals the forcing at least swings through the entire area at some point even if it sets up and lingers over an area more. The models definitely struggle more than normal with the 700mb FGEN compared to the 850mb it seems. I have no idea why. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk The HRRR last night (18Z) did have an area of banding about 2/3 up into PA. Pivotal does not have the product to see if was suggested 700 fgen. It does show 1-2" up there, think they probably got more, but something is still missing from the equation when you look at the snowfall map for say Lanco or just under the border in Northern MD. It had to be forecasting more forcing there for those 6-10" totals which ended up being 3-4". Not sure many if any models depicted what happened in the LSV and N MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Monday at 06:36 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:36 PM Bigger flakes have now shown up as that stuff out west and NW is arriving. I really think many of us will be pleasantly surprised. Obviously, it will take some locational luck, but doesn't it always? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 06:42 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:42 PM Mod snow and 28 here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 06:44 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:44 PM 10 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Bigger flakes have now shown up as that stuff out west and NW is arriving. I really think many of us will be pleasantly surprised. Obviously, it will take some locational luck, but doesn't it always? I will opine that anyone who is wrapping up the snow totals and judging forecasts off them is risking be off base. All the forecast and snow maps were for the entire storm, not just this AM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Monday at 06:49 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:49 PM 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Mod snow and 28 here. Headed my way...save me some! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 06:56 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:56 PM Interesting and obvious thoughts in the MA forum. I say obvious because they are but not sure I had thought of it yet. We were so gung ho on using Kuch because of the antecedent cold air but if one looks at the 10-1 maps maybe the model outputs were a bit more realistic. QPF in Lanco was 2-3" on a lot of outputs....10-1 that is 2-3" of snow. It is almost 30 degrees here right now. Kuch may have over done it this time (sometimes Kuch is lower of course but obviously much higher up this way for this storm.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 06:59 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:59 PM Right now the best banding is setting up in True Central PA again. Probably going to retreat south but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted Monday at 07:02 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:02 PM I’m not banking on much more than maybe .25-.5” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted Monday at 07:07 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:07 PM 36 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Mod snow and 28 here. you could be our big winner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted Monday at 07:09 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:09 PM 4 minutes ago, canderson said: I’m not banking on much more than maybe .25-.5” I would be thrilled with that. The 18z HRRR still keeps the bulk of what's moving through this evening to our south and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted Monday at 07:11 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:11 PM The ULL is coming and it will be much more exciting than part 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted Monday at 07:13 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:13 PM 2 minutes ago, anotherman said: The ULL is coming and it will be much more exciting than part 1. I hope you're right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted Monday at 07:20 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:20 PM 10 minutes ago, anotherman said: The ULL is coming and it will be much more exciting than part 1. We just ran out to do errands in hopes you’re right later. Sun is out and it’s melting fast. Roads and parking lots are very good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Monday at 07:20 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:20 PM Oye, I haven't been looking at the short term models, but just did. Rap and Hrrr say that the stuff on radar never amounts to anything imby. Oh well. We'll find out, but certainly less optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Monday at 07:24 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:24 PM Just checked my NWS forecast. Went from 2-4" to 1-3" this PM. Says snows arrive after 3pm. I'll take that and hope for the 2-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted Monday at 07:24 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:24 PM Oye, I haven't been looking at the short term models, but just did. Rap and Hrrr say that the stuff on radar never amounts to anything imby. Oh well. We'll find out, but certainly less optimistic. Ah crap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted Monday at 07:26 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:26 PM With the 2.5" of snow "so far" today here in East Nantmeal Twp. We are now up to 3.0" for the month of January which is 2.1" above normal through today. For the season to date, we stand at 5.8" which is 79% of our normal snowfall to date of 7.3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Monday at 07:33 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:33 PM 12 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Oye, I haven't been looking at the short term models, but just did. Rap and Hrrr say that the stuff on radar never amounts to anything imby. Oh well. We'll find out, but certainly less optimistic. Heres to hoping they are as wrong as they were last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted Monday at 07:33 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:33 PM Only 1.3” has fallen so far, woof. Starting to get some of this backend stuff but it’s gonna have to do some work. I was targeting about 4-5” here. I’ll be lucky to get 3” to verify the advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Summit Snow Posted Monday at 07:35 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:35 PM No bad for a 30% of Snow Showers earlier this AM. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Monday at 07:35 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:35 PM Wind has picked up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 07:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:39 PM 2 minutes ago, Summit Snow said: No bad for a 30% of Snow Showers earlier this AM. If you followed the posting from the last few days, Snow Showers is the new secret word to suggest good things in the snow department. Last year it was Buckle Up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted Monday at 07:44 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:44 PM Looks like MDT reported 2.0" at their 12:56 update. If I'm looking at stuff correctly, they did so off of .14" qpf. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Monday at 07:53 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:53 PM My uncle in Lewes measured "about 10" a short time ago. My cousin, who lives inland on Rt. 9 several miles closer to Georgetown DE texted me that he had 11" at his place. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted Monday at 07:55 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:55 PM Very light snow has started back up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted Monday at 08:06 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:06 PM getting brighter outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted Monday at 08:10 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:10 PM sun is officially out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted Monday at 08:13 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:13 PM Very light snow has continued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Monday at 08:20 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:20 PM I haven' seen a flake in over 4 hours. Clouds and 28 currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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