Itstrainingtime Posted Monday at 04:40 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:40 PM 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: trough orientation is still pos tilted (progressive) and not negative. Yeah, this is a good callout. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted Monday at 04:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:41 PM 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: I'm curious as well, honestly. On one panel of the GFS the low is positioned where I would often taint with mix, and that usually implies that the QPF shield would extend well back into true Central PA. At least. loop the 500's and you'll see why. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 04:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:41 PM Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Ehh...there was at least one other... Sorry, I do remember now. Someone who has a green icon I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted Monday at 04:42 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:42 PM It would appear as if the snow has stopped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Monday at 04:43 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:43 PM 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Sorry, I do remember now. Someone who has a green icon I think. In fairness, I likely came off too strong. But it does happen with every winter storm. And the vitriol is all about watches/warnings/advisories. Some seem to live or die with what is or isn't issued. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted Monday at 04:44 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:44 PM 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Sorry, I do remember now. Someone who has a green icon I think. speaking of Icon, it is in the souther camp w/ 0z Euro. Strung out n never pops, just rolls along and out SE coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 04:47 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:47 PM 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: In fairness, I likely came off too strong. But it does happen with every winter storm. And the vitriol is all about watches/warnings/advisories. Some seem to live or die with what is or isn't issued. There are two (or more) things at question here...the bashers and then the model parade, which I know you are not a total fan of especially snow maps, so thanks for putting up with some of us who like to compare and break it down. Many of the model paraders did issue forecasts which conflicted with the high model outputs so there was some actual forecasting/guessing be done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 04:48 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:48 PM 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: speaking of Icon, it is in the souther camp w/ 0z Euro. Strung out n never pops, just rolls along and out SE coast. The good thing about the icon being off is that this board allows the "It is the Icon, why bother" mantra to cast it aside when it does not show what we want. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted Monday at 04:50 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:50 PM Mood flakes here. Can still see the grass. Should have mowed lower on that last cut of the season. At this point, I'd say the Total Storm Posts / Total Storm Accumulation ratio is pretty high for this one. We need a bigger denominator! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted Monday at 04:51 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:51 PM 8 minutes ago, WmsptWx said: It would appear as if the snow has stopped. almost nonexistent here too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted Monday at 04:52 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:52 PM Dallas looks to get a potential record snowfall Thursday. Someone around the metroplex might see a freaking foot of snow. Good thing the Cotton Bowl is Friday and not Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Monday at 04:57 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:57 PM 6 minutes ago, Festus said: Can still see the grass. Should have mowed lower on that last cut of the season. Yep, I'm second-guessing myself now. Lots of my yard is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted Monday at 05:03 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:03 PM Dallas looks to get a potential record snowfall Thursday. Someone around the metroplex might see a freaking foot of snow. Good thing the Cotton Bowl is Friday and not Thursday. That's going to be a disaster with all those people flying on Thursday. If I am them I'm looking at flights to Austin, Houston, San Antonio and driving up. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted Monday at 05:07 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:07 PM I have multiple buddies flying into West Palm Beach and then driving down to Miami for the Orange Bowl on Thursday. I reckon they won't have the same issues with snow ha. I decided not to push it with my wife and instead will be watching from the confines of my living room. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted Monday at 05:13 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:13 PM 20 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: There are two (or more) things at question here...the bashers and then the model parade, which I know you are not a total fan of especially snow maps, so thanks for putting up with some of us who like to compare and break it down. Many of the model paraders did issue forecasts which conflicted with the high model outputs so there was some actual forecasting/guessing be done. for us amateurs, the model parade is largely the best medium to base our guesses off of. Sprinkle in telies/ base state (ENSO), knowledge of climo and whatever other tools us rookies use. It IS the fun on a weather disco board IMO. We get to throw our thoughts in without any bashing from public....just from fellow weather geeks. Like you, I'm totally cool w/ that. While we should have payed better attention to northern fringe on this one, the true CTP'rs overperformed as forcing set up north of us, so one persons epic fail, is anothers quiet little victory. Had that forcing been a bit closer, many 3-6 calls may have worked out a bit better. Thats the fun of this hobby. Figurin that shit out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted Monday at 05:17 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:17 PM 24 minutes ago, Festus said: Mood flakes here. Can still see the grass. Should have mowed lower on that last cut of the season. At this point, I'd say the Total Storm Posts / Total Storm Accumulation ratio is pretty high for this one. We need a bigger denominator! Many of us have been mal nourished in our appetite for snow, so as we were close enough and we often see surprises, its not surprising IMO. Its all good, and part of the fun. Onto the next one. Hoping this weekend can work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Monday at 05:32 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:32 PM I love this radar from Pitt. The 700mb forcing stuff is sinking down and flow from sw is headed this way. I'm hoping it hits north of me then sinks down. We'll see. Official measurement from mby 90 minutes ago was 2.75". Lt snow has continued since. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=PBZ-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted Monday at 05:35 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:35 PM 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: I love this radar from Pitt. The 700mb forcing stuff is sinking down and flow from sw is headed this way. I'm hoping it hits north of me then sinks down. We'll see. Official measurement from mby 90 minutes ago was 2.75". Lt snow has continued since. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=PBZ-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad Looks like it's gonna miss my area just to the south. Good luck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
str8liner Posted Monday at 05:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:37 PM 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I love this radar from Pitt. The 700mb forcing stuff is sinking down and flow from sw is headed this way. I'm hoping it hits north of me then sinks down. We'll see. Official measurement from mby 90 minutes ago was 2.75". Lt snow has continued since. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=PBZ-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad That has started the snow up here again in Bedford Co too. Hoping it adds a few inches because I am only around 3 or so as of right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 05:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:37 PM Later Nooners. 26 and sun through clouds helping a bit with driveway, I had shoveled early this AM, but drifting is counter acting it. Cannot have overly extensive drifting with 4" but some roads are getting covered again after the plow went through. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted Monday at 05:40 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:40 PM 12z Euro is going to be a miss for the Saturday event but it was improved over its 6z run. The Euro is notorious but dragging its heels with southern shortwaves in the southwest so the fact it is showing “something” is encouraging at this point . 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted Monday at 05:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:41 PM 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: I'm not fully following this but I know for certain that any good met does not rely solely on models. I follow a good met from Millersville U. that will explain why the models are wrong in certain situations. At once I would agree those like church Rhodes actually did the leg work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CASH_COOP Posted Monday at 05:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:41 PM 5 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Looks like it's gonna miss my area just to the south. Good luck. Band is forming right along rt30 through me. Flake size has really increased the last 15 min. Hopefully a sign of things to come for with the ULL passage. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Monday at 05:43 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:43 PM Just now, CASH_COOP said: Band is forming right along rt30 through me. Flake size has really increased the last 15 min. Hopefully a sign of things to come for with the ULL passage. I'm about 4 miles south max from rt 30. I hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted Monday at 05:45 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:45 PM AKA dryslot. 700 Meso I don't feel anything was that abnormal with the 700mb and 850mb FGEN except for we are more used to it occurring in a coastal and having a more sw-ne orientation. The HRRR coming so far north last night was definitely a sign since the 700mb FGEN seems to set up on the northern edge of the precipitation. The mesoanaylais from late last night definitely showed the forcing there setting up around I-80. It's all amplified by the precipitation moving parallel to the forcing. Lots of times in coastals the forcing at least swings through the entire area at some point even if it sets up and lingers over an area more. The models definitely struggle more than normal with the 700mb FGEN compared to the 850mb it seems. I have no idea why. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted Monday at 05:50 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:50 PM Just cleaned up. About 1.4” of super fluffy snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Monday at 05:54 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:54 PM Sun is making an appearance. Temp is up to 29. Snow on road and driveway melting off quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted Monday at 05:57 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:57 PM 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Sun is making an appearance. Temp is up to 29. Snow on road and driveway melting off quickly. Just coming to say the same. The pre-treatment on our parking lot is making quick work of what fell. Feels warmer then it actually is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted Monday at 06:05 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:05 PM I love this radar from Pitt. The 700mb forcing stuff is sinking down and flow from sw is headed this way. I'm hoping it hits north of me then sinks down. We'll see. Official measurement from mby 90 minutes ago was 2.75". Lt snow has continued since.https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=PBZ-N0B-1-24-100-usa-radThat’s our round 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 06:22 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:22 PM ULL moving ESE and fairly well defined in KY/OH on this pic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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