Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[Mount Joy Snowman]

3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

That has been modelled so its clearly an option.  Looks like later on things start back up a bit.  Well we hope so anyway.

 

Yes, hope indeed.  I'm still leaning towards that 500 passage giving the goods to our south.  Perhaps some peeps like Bubbler and the gang out there get some extra fluff.  I hope to be wrong but I'm thinking we're just going to catch the northern fringe of whatever that brings.  These things can have a mind of their own though so we'll see.  Hey, I'm happy to see white.

[Ruin]

9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Models are nothing more than tools that comprise what a good met has at his/her disposal. There were good forecasters in your area that were calling for 1-3". Seems like not such a bad call right now. Models are prone to inaccuracy. 

The ones who were really wrong? How about the people that slammed CTP for not issuing a Winter Storm Warning for certain areas that only have about 2" on average with not a whole lot more to look forward to? It's not over yet (we'll see what happens later on) but it seems highly unlikely that York and Lanco are getting 5" from this. 

Seems to me that CTP had our area right. Again. And I'm sure for the next storm, they'll be taken to the woodshed prior to the storm even happening again. 

 

yes tolls but its all they go by any more no more plotting lows and highs themselves they all leave it up for the models or computers to do thus they make a bad call. so yes the models are wrong again and those who model hug them on tv to make a forecast is it really making a forecast when you rely so much on models?

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, Ruin said:

yes tolls but its all they go by any more no more plotting lows and highs themselves they all leave it up for the models or computers to do thus they make a bad call. so yes the models are wrong again and those who model hug them on tv to make a forecast is it really making a forecast when you rely so much on models?

I'm not fully following this but I know for certain that any good met does not rely solely on models. I follow a good met from Millersville U. that will explain why the models are wrong in certain situations. 

[AccuChris]

Sitting at just about 2” here in Lebanon with it really tapering off now. The irony is we were all worried and expecting the heavy stuff to stay just south but in actuality, the 700mb FGEN snow zone in northern PA really squeezed the LSV and Maryland into a zone of subsidence so even areas to our south may wind up below their expected ranges where northern PA may get more than us when most models showed absolutely nada for them this whole time. Weather will always keep man and machine humble


.

[canderson]

It's super bright outside - Looks to be about 1.25". I'll go out at lunch and shovel since it seems to be about over for accumulation. 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm not fully following this but I know for certain that any good met does not rely solely on models. I follow a good met from Millersville U. that will explain why the models are wrong in certain situations. 

I am not sure any here even rely solely on models.   Some of us enjoy the game of model watching and that is why we throw them all out there and compare as we go but lots of convo here about fgen, precip being eaten by dry air, etc  and what it could or could not do for us and that was not shown on the models.  Ironically all that non model convo was wrong too as the better forcing set up north of us and there was not a sharp cut off like a lot of us discussed (at least not near us.)

[pasnownut]

14 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Models are nothing more than tools that comprise what a good met has at his/her disposal. There were good forecasters in your area that were calling for 1-3". Seems like not such a bad call right now. Models are prone to inaccuracy. 

The ones who were really wrong? How about the people that slammed CTP for not issuing a Winter Storm Warning for certain areas that only have about 2" on average with not a whole lot more to look forward to? It's not over yet (we'll see what happens later on) but it seems highly unlikely that York and Lanco are getting 5" from this. 

Seems to me that CTP had our area right. Again. And I'm sure for the next storm, they'll be taken to the woodshed prior to the storm even happening again. 

 

I'm just going to add a bit to this.

You are totally on point here.  Models are tools that are used in tandem w/ a myriad of "tools" including climatology and have known biases.  We ALL know this.

I really get chapped when peeps come in....add little/nothing as to what they think may be right or wrong, and just bash.  Guess its always easier and more convenient to blame someone (or something) else.  CTP did a nice job here. 

[pasnownut]

9 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Yes, hope indeed.  I'm still leaning towards that 500 passage giving the goods to our south.  Perhaps some peeps like Bubbler and the gang out there get some extra fluff.  I hope to be wrong but I'm thinking we're just going to catch the northern fringe of whatever that brings.  These things can have a mind of their own though so we'll see.  Hey, I'm happy to see white.

Bubbles and SC crew are definitely in a better spot for afternoon/evening.  We've been on the fringe for it, and model depended can smell it, but may not see it as it collapes when it gets east of the river.  Enough spread to not discount, and by HH I'm sure we'll see whos the haves and whos the have nots.  Mood flakes is my bar for later.  

[pawatch]

Started right around 7:00 am here. Didn’t take long to lay on surfaces.

Measured at 10:00 1” of snow. Been snowing hard, roads are kind of a mess. Had to run my wife to her best friends moms funeral. 
Enjoy your snow.   

[Itstrainingtime]

MU weighs in on later:

Northern MD, southeastern PA and the LSV remain "trapped between the bands," and light snow will be the theme through the rest of the day. A brief burst of heavier snow is possible with the upper low between 5-9 PM, especially south of Route 30, before snow ends by midnight.

[pasnownut]

12 minutes ago, Ruin said:

yes tolls but its all they go by any more no more plotting lows and highs themselves they all leave it up for the models or computers to do thus they make a bad call. so yes the models are wrong again and those who model hug them on tv to make a forecast is it really making a forecast when you rely so much on models?

why dont you throw your thoughs out there like many of us do?  You pooh pooh much, but say little as to why.  That constant negative undertone adds little to the convo.  

[pasnownut]

8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I am not sure any here even rely solely on models.   Some of us enjoy the game of model watching and that is why we throw them all out there and compare as we go but lots of convo here about fgen, precip being eaten by dry air, etc  and what it could or could not do for us and that was not shown on the models.  Ironically all that non model convo was wrong too as the better forcing set up north of us and there was not a sharp cut off like a lot of us discussed (at least not near us.)

is there a 1000% button.  If so, hit it for me.

Well stated.  Enjoy your 4".  Sounds like 2" is what our area is seeing.

[pasnownut]

oh shit......GFS is at it again.

Game

back 

on

 

for 6 hrs anyway.

Truth told, there are several models showing next weekends potential, and if we can get NS and SS to play in tandem.  Boom time.

[Itstrainingtime]

16 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I am not sure any here even rely solely on models.   Some of us enjoy the game of model watching and that is why we throw them all out there and compare as we go but lots of convo here about fgen, precip being eaten by dry air, etc  and what it could or could not do for us and that was not shown on the models.  Ironically all that non model convo was wrong too as the better forcing set up north of us and there was not a sharp cut off like a lot of us discussed (at least not near us.)

Yes indeed. Like so many things in life, we live in what I like to call "The Information Age". This is really a double-edged sword kind of thing...how many times have we ourselves, a loved one, our beloved pet, etc. started to show signs of something that is concerning to us? All the time. And today, we can go online and read just about anything you want to read on said subject, both good, bad and in between. One thing at our disposal is weather models. If we have access, let's read/use them...it only makes sense. And, when tied to our passion they make a great conversation piece. And that in itself is a great thing. Sharing thoughts/opinions with others sharing the same passion connects us in ways that weren't possible years ago. Okay, I'm rambling...

My issue is too many people take any information at face value. And there's the issue. On here, we love to criticize (fairly) the internet hypsters who go on Facebook, You Tube and other places and share a bizarre snow map (like the one that showed 50" over New Jersey some time ago) and people eat that shit up like a lemon meringue pie. Why? It's there for them to see. So, it has to be true. And the person who shared it, who almost certainly knows what he/she shared is a crock of loaded doodoo is laughing their way to the bank.

The age of information. What a convoluted world we live in...

[pasnownut]

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Yes indeed. Like so many things in life, we live in what I like to call "The Information Age". This is really a double-edged sword kind of thing...how many times have we ourselves, a loved one, our beloved pet, etc. started to showing signs of something that is concerning to us? All the time. And today, we can go online and read just about anything you want to read on said subject, both good, bad and in between. One thing at our disposal is weather models. If we have access, let's read/use them...it only makes sense. And, when tied to our passion they make a great conversation piece. And that in itself is a great thing. Sharing thoughts/opinions with others sharing the same passion connects us in ways that weren't possible years ago. Okay, I'm rambling...

My issue is too many people take any information at face value. And there's the issue. On here, we love to criticize (fairly) the internet hypsters who go on Facebook, You Tube and other places and share a bizarre snow map (like the one that showed 50" over New Jersey some time ago) and people eat that shit up like a lemon meringue pie. Why? It's there for them to see. So, it has to be true. And the person who shared it, who almost certainly knows what he/she shared is a crock of loaded doodoo is laughing their way to the bank.

The age of information. What a convoluted world we live in...

You keep ramblin all you want pal.  it's literally like you went in my head to write this.  

You get an atta boy as well.  

[pasnownut]

add CMC to the ones to watch column.

 

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, pasnownut said:

add CMC to the ones to watch column.

 

CMC with a dramatic shift in a positive way. Has a storm on the coast close enough at this point.

GFS has you and me dancing in knee-deep snow. Waist deep to our NE.

[canderson]

It's called meteorology, not modelology, for a reason. Models are a tool for guidance, not to cherry pick and use verbatim. It's why I suck at understanding some storm dynamics. 

[sauss06]

36 minutes ago, Ruin said:

yes tolls but its all they go by any more no more plotting lows and highs themselves they all leave it up for the models or computers to do thus they make a bad call. so yes the models are wrong again and those who model hug them on tv to make a forecast is it really making a forecast when you rely so much on models?

You should find a new hobby. Past couple days you're just busting on mets

[pasnownut]

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

CMC with a dramatic shift in a positive way. Has a storm on the coast close enough at this point.

GFS has you and me dancing in knee-deep snow. Waist deep to our NE.

Now that most models have something to look at, yeah it may be a fun week to see how this shakes out.

Euro furthest S, but plenty of time for good or bad.  it did pretty well w/ this one, so one needs to keep that in mind as the next one takes shape. I've really not looked in depth as ive been focused on today (and other stuff at home).  

[Superstorm]

Lock it up!

 

 

[Bubbler86]

12 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yes indeed. Like so many things in life, we live in what I like to call "The Information Age". This is really a double-edged sword kind of thing...how many times have we ourselves, a loved one, our beloved pet, etc. started to show signs of something that is concerning to us? All the time. And today, we can go online and read just about anything you want to read on said subject, both good, bad and in between. One thing at our disposal is weather models. If we have access, let's read/use them...it only makes sense. And, when tied to our passion they make a great conversation piece. And that in itself is a great thing. Sharing thoughts/opinions with others sharing the same passion connects us in ways that weren't possible years ago. Okay, I'm rambling...

My issue is too many people take any information at face value. And there's the issue. On here, we love to criticize (fairly) the internet hypsters who go on Facebook, You Tube and other places and share a bizarre snow map (like the one that showed 50" over New Jersey some time ago) and people eat that shit up like a lemon meringue pie. Why? It's there for them to see. So, it has to be true. And the person who shared it, who almost certainly knows what he/she shared is a crock of loaded doodoo is laughing their way to the bank.

The age of information. What a convoluted world we live in...

Good Post.  I think some, I am guilty too, post models as a way to cheer up the forum.  I often see posts after a model post stating how the snow on that model is going to affect something as if the forecast is locked in.  I think we all do it at times.  LOL.    So people take each run in a bubble per se at times.    I am busy at work and you or someone else may have said it but to me the real value of modeling, at least in the lead up, is trends.   In defense of model watching, you often see a lot of reference to them in AFD's though they also mention why they are adjusting away from the verbatim, 

[whiteout]

On the Saturday GFS run, why such a tight precipitation shield on the west side? Usually with a tucked low position along the coast, we get nuked in Cumberland county but we show just on the back edge of the good stuff.


.

[pasnownut]

6 minutes ago, canderson said:

It's called meteorology, not modelology, for a reason. Models are a tool for guidance, not to cherry pick and use verbatim. It's why I suck at understanding some storm dynamics. 

I say to freinds...we've become a point n click society.

we see

we click

we get. no questions. 

Thats now engrained in most facets of many peeps existence and is an undeniable fact.  

[Bubbler86]

I personally do not recall any met bashing on her except for ruin (with this storm).  We Bantered about whether they would bump up Lanco and York to WSW but was just discussion on whether they would do it.   If you you think being a couple inches behind on possible snow is bad for many here, remember Hagerstown's NWS headline read 8-12 with 18" lolly's.   They got that one DRASICTALLY wrong. 

[pasnownut]

2 minutes ago, whiteout said:

On the Saturday GFS run, why such a tight precipitation shield on the west side? Usually with a tucked low position along the coast, we get nuked in Cumberland county but we show just on the back edge of the good stuff.


.

As presented, coastals typcically do have a sharp West gradient.  Not atypical.  Start looking at 500/700s to get an idea of trough axis, and that can add a clue as to how qpf distribution may look.  Get trough more neg tilted and it goes up n not out.  Thats what we wanna root for, especially if you are on western side of this

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I say to freinds...we've become a point n click society.

we see

we click

we get. no questions. 

Thats now engrained in most facets of many peeps existence and is an undeniable fact.  

Very true.  Point and click and then impatience on top of it to not go any further.  Plus lack of time. 

[Itstrainingtime]

4 minutes ago, whiteout said:

On the Saturday GFS run, why such a tight precipitation shield on the west side? Usually with a tucked low position along the coast, we get nuked in Cumberland county but we show just on the back edge of the good stuff.


.

I'm curious as well, honestly. On one panel of the GFS the low is positioned where I would often taint with mix, and that usually implies that the QPF shield would extend well back into true Central PA. At least. 

[pasnownut]

6 minutes ago, whiteout said:

On the Saturday GFS run, why such a tight precipitation shield on the west side? Usually with a tucked low position along the coast, we get nuked in Cumberland county but we show just on the back edge of the good stuff.


.

trough orientation is still pos tilted (progressive) and not negative.  

[Itstrainingtime]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I personally do not recall any met bashing on her except for ruin (with this storm).  We Bantered about whether they would bump up Lanco and York to WSW but was just discussion on whether they would do it.   If you you think being a couple inches behind on possible snow is bad for many here, remember Hagerstown's NWS headline read 8-12 with 18" lolly's.   They got that one DRASICTALLY wrong. 

Ehh...there was at least one other...