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Central PA Winter 2024/2025


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2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Peter Mullinax

Getting light snow in parts of northern MD as we are caught between 850mb FGEN in central MD & 700mb FGEN in central PA. That 700mb in particular sports a deep DGZ & increasingly saturated RH area. It's making for an area of subsidence along the Mason-Dixon & southern PA for now.

AKA dryslot.    700 Meso

image.png.83d2fab745db65cda02044721a9c818c.png

 

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31 minutes ago, paweather said:

Places to our north are getting rocked. This shows you how the models once again didn't portray a northern aspect to the storm. 

This shows how forcing is often part of the challenge, as I suggested the other day (and its known by most), one doesnt have to be in the jackpot qpf, to be able to maximize potential in areas of best forcing (700's and isothermally).  We are seeing just that in central/norther pa.  May not be a big win, but to be in the game and not on bench is good enough when livin on the edge.  

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I just took a look at the radar and saw two things:  there's a huge gap of nothing about to reach my area; easily the northern third up by Williamsport is getting the goods.  Incredible!

Anyway, like so many of you in the last hour I also measured exactly 2.0" on the board.  Also, no grass is visible, so that's a win.  Rates have dropped off to just a light, very fine snow that maybe accumulates 0.1" per hour (lol).  Temp is 22.8 degrees.  I love snow when it's well below freezing.  I'm wondering if the passage of the 500 later today will give us another burst?

 

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3 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

It just occurred to me that if the snow is fine enough the radar doesn't pick it up at all.  So, maybe the big "nothing" is really some snow falling.

On this radar view you can see some of the forcing in N Central PA is collapsing back a bit.

 

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Virginias-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

My Uncle in Lewes, DE reported to me that he had 9" when he measured at 9:30am. He had 2" in the previous hour. They live less than a mile from Cape Henlopen State Park. 

wife headed there this weekend with gal pals.  She told me to shussh last night when I spoke of the weekend biggin potential.  Sounds like sheel have snow otg no matter.

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Here in Carlisle at 10:00, the temperature is 23.4 degrees with a dew point of 20.8 degrees and a wet bulb of 22.6 degrees.  Nearly the entire previous hour the snow fell very lightly with fine flakes.  During the past hour I measured an additional 0.1" of snow with a storm total of 2.1".  As I am typing this the rate has picked back up again and the flake size has increased nicely.  I'd estimate the rate to be 0.2" to 0.3" per hour.  

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7 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

I saw this, hope its right. Please? ULL's can be boom or bust sometimes, but if we got precip to fire and get over us, I'd like our chances to get some 15-20:1 type fluff. 

 

6 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Hope it's correct. I ended up with about 3" from round 1. It's great but a little underwhelming considering what the American short range models were showing yesterday. 

Yep, would not bet any money on it can still track and hope.  We are close to 4" here with several measurements.  Elevation probably helped with the extra precip dumping as it climbed the mountain.   Still a bit underwhelming to me as well after trends late yesterday.     The post plow snow hill was quite high so almost all laid on the streets. 

 

3K too

 

image.thumb.png.af42f1794e47da0a257e20911a83cc4c.png

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Just now, Ruin said:

Big surprise models got it wrong

Models are nothing more than tools that comprise what a good met has at his/her disposal. There were good forecasters in your area that were calling for 1-3". Seems like not such a bad call right now. Models are prone to inaccuracy. 

The ones who were really wrong? How about the people that slammed CTP for not issuing a Winter Storm Warning for certain areas that only have about 2" on average with not a whole lot more to look forward to? It's not over yet (we'll see what happens later on) but it seems highly unlikely that York and Lanco are getting 5" from this. 

Seems to me that CTP had our area right. Again. And I'm sure for the next storm, they'll be taken to the woodshed prior to the storm even happening again. 

 

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7 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Man, the radar has really collapsed for the LSV, even earlier than I thought it would.  Certainly looking like the under is going to easily hit on my 3.5" estimate.

That has been modelled so its clearly an option.  Looks like later on things start back up a bit.  Well we hope so anyway.

 

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