Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[paweather]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Came in a little lighter than I expected Harrisburg and NE but still close to WSW there.  Broad brush 4-10".  5" in Marysville. 

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What about Myra LOL

[Bubbler86]

Just now, paweather said:

What about Myra LOL

Looks like 4" to me. 

[Superstorm]

Came in a little lighter than I expected Harrisburg and NE but still close to WSW there.  Broad brush 4-10".  5" in Marysville. 
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I like how the blue keeps expanding north.


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[Blizzard of 93]

18z HRRR

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, Superstorm said:

I like how the blue keeps expanding north.


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Yes, get in the precip shield & see where the banding sets up.

[MAG5035]

15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Not gospel of course but the HRRR would dictate a WSW for basically the entire LSV.  Basically a hold from 12Z.   Knocked 1-2" off far East and NE locales in the valley., 

This might be one of those situations that their zones would be better with splitting York/Lancaster in half (advisory north warning south). Either way I have a gut feeling those counties eventually get upgraded for a low end 4-6 warning. As was discussed in my post a couple pages back pertaining to the CTP disco, the shortwave over New England that is the possible detriment for more expansive heavier snow further into C-PA is not going to be in the HRRR’s realm until the 0z run later. So that might be most important model run of our lives coming up haha. 

[Festus]

2 hours ago, dcfox1 said:

I remember that and the chains on the busses in the 70's and early 80's at Eastern York. Lots of Hills. 

Yes indeed!  I'd plow my way along in my 1970 Chevy Impala.  It would get stuck on like a 0.1% grade so the trick was to keep moving at any cost.  Drivers nowadays have it too darn easy with front wheel drive, all wheel drive, traction control, ABS, blah, blah, blah.  With that said, it's amazing how crappy some folks still manage to do when conditions are poor.

[mitchnick]

Upgrades out of LWX on amounts down there.

[paweather]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Upgrades out of LWX on amounts down there.

My region has snow heavy at times 1-3” geezus! 

[paweather]

The stream of moisture coming north from Memphis has my hopes higher

[Itstrainingtime]

18z NAM comes out and is almost a carbon copy of Elliott's snow map. The heavy snow axis is much narrower on the NAM which agrees with Elliott's assessment that it will only be 75-100 miles wide north to south.

[Blizzard of 93]

3k NAM brings the purples back over the MD line.

[paweather]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

3k NAM brings the purples back over the MD line.

I like this Blizz!

[mitchnick]

Icon keeping the hopes alive

[Bubbler86]

1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

This might be one of those situations that their zones would be better with splitting York/Lancaster in half (advisory north warning south). Either way I have a gut feeling those counties eventually get upgraded for a low end 4-6 warning. As was discussed in my post a couple pages back pertaining to the CTP disco, the shortwave over New England that is the possible detriment for more expansive heavier snow further into C-PA is not going to be in the HRRR’s realm until the 0z run later. So that might be most important model run of our lives coming up haha. 

I full heartedly agree that it would be prudent to give Lanco City and south a WSW as well as say Etters and south in York.   4-6" there would be my call.   Lean toward 5. 

[paweather]

DPs must be low

[Itstrainingtime]

3 minutes ago, paweather said:

DPs must be low

28/12 here currently.

[Itstrainingtime]

15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I full heartedly agree that it would be prudent to give Lanco City and south a WSW as well as say Etters and south in York.   4-6" there would be my call.   Lean toward 5. 

I agree. I think. I'm honestly not convinced either way. Very close call.

[WmsptWx]

1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

 It managed to have a secondary band of enhanced QPF that extended from Pittsburgh to Clearfield

Rich get richer 

[Bubbler86]

6 minutes ago, paweather said:

DPs must be low

Low to mid teens.  That is actually not all that low at this point with temps in the 24-29 area.      Would guess 1-2 hours to saturate. 

 

 

6 minutes ago, paweather said:

DPs must be low

 

[Superstorm]

I agree. I think. I'm honestly not convinced either way. Very close call.

It’s tough. Trends tell you that if anything we should get into warning category.

I guarantee if we were teetering on the snow/mix line, it would be an easy call.


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[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I agree. I think. I'm honestly not convinced either way. Very close call.

Not sure it matters I guess.  If you have 4" with a WWA or 4" with a WSW, it is still 4".  LOL.   BUT what is key IMO is people are so used to sloppy poppy roads after snows and that may not be the case tomorrow.   Most progs stay under 30 all day. 

[Bubbler86]

Will hurt a bit see southers (MD) getting the big snows.  May have to stay out of the MA thread. 

[paweather]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Will hurt a bit see southers (MD) getting the big snows.  May have to stay out of the MA thread. 

I haven’t been in the MA thread maybe once so far. I am happy for them. They deserve it every once in a while. I’ll take my 3-5” and be happy as well. 

[Voyager]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Will hurt a bit see southers (MD) getting the big snows.  May have to stay out of the MA thread. 

I've learned that in the past. When you're on the losing end of a snowstorm, it's not good to go to a jackpot zone sub-forum.

[Superstorm]

Moisture transport looks great.




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[Itstrainingtime]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Not sure it matters I guess.  If you have 4" with a WWA or 4" with a WSW, it is still 4".  LOL.   BUT what is key IMO is people are so used to sloppy poppy roads after snows and that may not be the case tomorrow.   Most progs stay under 30 all day. 

That has been my point for years. I don't care if I have a warning or not. It only matters what actually happens.

I wish I had $1 for every Winter Storm Warning I've had over the years that did not verify. I would be one rich man. For all who complain when CTP doesn't issue them, I hope they also realize that they've been burned far more times when warnings issued ended up failing than when a warning was warranted but not issued.

[paweather]

1 minute ago, Superstorm said:

Moisture transport looks great.




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That really looks good.

[Superstorm]

That has been my point for years. I don't care if I have a warning or not. It only matters what actually happens.
I wish I had $1 for every Winter Storm Warning I've had over the years that did not verify. I would be one rich man. For all who complain when CTP doesn't issue them, I hope they also realize that they've been burned far more times when warnings issued ended up failing than when a warning was warranted but not issued.

Much easier to upgrade to a warning than back track.


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[Mount Joy Snowman]

I’m setting the over/under at 3.5” for KMJS. One cool thing here is I still have most of that .8” that fell on Friday. Great retention these last couple days. Snow on top of snow is always a beautiful thing.