Blizzard of 93 Posted Sunday at 03:13 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:13 AM 16 minutes ago, AccuChris said: 21z SREF Plumes were quite good for the LSV. 9” in York, 8” in Lancaster, 7” in Harrisburg and 6” in Reading. Lancaster had a top member at 18” . Even though the 21z SREF is likely overdone, it is an impressive amount of precip for the LSV. This snow map is 10-1, so Kuchera would be even more. I would be happy with less, but this high end potential would be something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted Sunday at 03:17 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:17 AM The RGEM is relentlessly unimpressive still. Either its going to score a coup here or fold like a cheap card table tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Sunday at 03:19 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:19 AM 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Even though the 21z SREF is likely overdone. Truth be told. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted Sunday at 03:24 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:24 AM So what models does the NBM take into account for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted Sunday at 03:27 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:27 AM 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: One thing that's changed on recent runs is the orientation of the heavy stripe of snow. We're now seeing an almost due west-east trajectory straight to the big pond. based on track, its a realistic distribution IMO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Sunday at 03:27 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:27 AM 2 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: So what models does the NBM take into account for? Many. Euro, Gfs, some of the mesos and trolly a few others I don't know about but not the icon per MA forum discussion today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Sunday at 03:28 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:28 AM 3 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: So what models does the NBM take into account for? https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/mdl/nbm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted Sunday at 03:28 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:28 AM So what models does the NBM take into account for?These are what they use and its updated every 3 hours and ingests newer data from the short term meso models. It is also “bias-corrected”. They updated it in May 2024 and they tout its “most accurate” and doesnt suffer from wild one-off model swings that a deterministic model may suffer from one run to the next. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Sunday at 03:32 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:32 AM This link, when filled in with date, type of date and time period, will show you the exact models used for that output. https://blend.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/nbm-dashboard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted Sunday at 03:34 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:34 AM 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/mdl/nbm Thank you sir 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted Sunday at 03:37 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:37 AM 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: This link, when filled in with date, type of date and time period, will show you the exact models used for that output. https://blend.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/nbm-dashboard So in this case, the latest NBM utilizes the HRRR as its primary forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted Sunday at 03:42 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:42 AM 1 hour ago, anthonyweather said: Mmmm PA Map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Sunday at 03:42 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:42 AM 7 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: So in this case, the latest NBM utilizes the HRRR as its primary forecast If you look at hour 0Z for the 6 hour snowfall and conus I see what looks like 50 some members/models. Even the rap like your screenshot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Sunday at 03:58 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:58 AM 0z GFS is pretty similar to its 18z run. Warning level snow up to around the turnpike. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted Sunday at 04:04 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:04 AM When is CTP going realize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted Sunday at 04:13 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:13 AM 7 minutes ago, paweather said: When is CTP going realize. I hope they don't. There's an inside joke me and my friends have the only two professions you can actually be wrong or lie at and still have a job and be paid for it meteorologist and politician Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted Sunday at 04:23 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:23 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted Sunday at 04:28 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:28 AM This is a Maryland special - basically the entire state gets a foot. My final call for MDT: 3.1” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Sunday at 04:40 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:40 AM 24 minutes ago, Ruin said: I hope they don't. There's an inside joke me and my friends have the only two professions you can actually be wrong or lie at and still have a job and be paid for it meteorologist and politician You do realize there are a lot of good Mets on this board and a great one in our thread? It's really easy to be an armchair quarterback. It's a whole lot harder to put yourself out there every day. Sorry, but that comment really irks me. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted Sunday at 04:41 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:41 AM 12 minutes ago, canderson said: This is a Maryland special - basically the entire state gets a foot. My final call for MDT: 3.1” feels a bit low for middletown id say double that esp with the good temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted Sunday at 04:48 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:48 AM 7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: You do realize there are a lot of good Mets on this board and a great one in our thread? It's really easy to be an armchair quarterback. It's a whole lot harder to put yourself out there every day. Sorry, but that comment really irks me. 2nd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted Sunday at 04:58 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:58 AM 17 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: You do realize there are a lot of good Mets on this board and a great one in our thread? It's really easy to be an armchair quarterback. It's a whole lot harder to put yourself out there every day. Sorry, but that comment really irks me. Not personally attacking it's a joke with friends like I said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted Sunday at 07:18 AM Share Posted Sunday at 07:18 AM Hey guys! As promised, I have some time so I thought I'd drop by and give a brief forecast. Keeping it pretty rudimentary at this point since I feel PA will miss out on the heavier snowfall. However, some snow is better than none! Snowfall Forecast for 1/6-7/25 Along and south of US30: Highest snowfall for Southern PA at 3-7" w/ max of 9" near the M/D Area between Chambersburg/Altoona/Meyersdale: 5-9" w/ max of up to 11" down into terrain of Somerset county Between the turnpike and Rt 30: 2-4" w/ up to 6" possible if the 7H FGEN sets up a bit north of progs I-80 to Turnpike: 1-3" w/ up to 4" possible I-80 and north: T-2" I'll try to provide an update if there is need depending on trends. Pretty excited for the storm down this way. In a good spot near Annapolis. This would be my first true big storm 6+" since I've been back east. Let's hope for some surprises and all cash in on what should be a very active first half of January!! 7 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Sunday at 08:43 AM Share Posted Sunday at 08:43 AM My thinking right now... I think the globals are underestimating QPF a little bit in the H7 FGEN driven banding near the northern edge. This happens a lot. It's not 100% but I just have a hunch...1000mb lows that make it into central KY on a NE trajectory and no arctic high on top just don't tend to dry out THAT much. Yes it will hit a wall of confluence but often that even enhances the banding on the norther fringe where the moisture transport hits that wall and you get some nice banding. But I admit I am going out on a limb and riding my gut here. But it doesn't take a huge adjustment from where the GFS and Euro are now, shift the northern edge of the precip 30 miles north and beef up the qpf by about .1-.2 in that northern periphery where the h7 forcing is located (and models often under estimate), add in high ratios and you get this. The other snowfall max is to our south with the h85 driven forcing. 6 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted Sunday at 09:30 AM Share Posted Sunday at 09:30 AM I’m sorry but WTF is State College’s reasoning for downgrading York and Lancaster to a WWA for 3-5 inches? Maybe the far northern part of the two counties, but almost every model now has like 6-8 in most of the county. Zero sense… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman Posted Sunday at 11:30 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:30 AM 1 hour ago, Storm Clouds said: I’m sorry but WTF is State College’s reasoning for downgrading York and Lancaster to a WWA for 3-5 inches? Maybe the far northern part of the two counties, but almost every model now has like 6-8 in most of the county. Zero sense… the biggest mistake the nws ever made was not issuing a hurricane warning for north jersey and nyc for sandy! nws tries to be too fancy as opposed to operating under their mantra as to being a weather ready nation. cwa forecasting is a broadbrush and many wfo have divided counties to account for differences in the sensible weather observed. bottom line…i agree with the zero sense comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted Sunday at 12:00 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:00 PM . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Sunday at 12:43 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:43 PM Good morning everyone. Here’s the 9z National Blend of Models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted Sunday at 12:45 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:45 PM Euro and GFS for next weekend wowwww 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted Sunday at 12:50 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 12:50 PM Well, since I have to run Hazleton to Allentown tomorrow, I'm ok with a small, manageable event. Side note to that for those who know my employment as a water hauler, I may be switching jobs, if someone will hire me. My dilemma is that due to a partially torn right shoulder rotator cuff, I need to drive an automatic truck, and as of tomorrow, the company is putting me back into a manual, which at the very least will cause a lot of pain, and worse case scenario, will hasten a full rotator cuff tear. So it appears that I'm going to have to move on to an all automatic company if I can. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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