canderson Posted Saturday at 08:23 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:23 PM 18 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Can we come back to reality for a second. I wonder what the verification scores are on the long range HRRR. Probably the same as a 31 year old AA hitter who had never advanced past AAA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted Saturday at 08:24 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:24 PM Blizzard warnings out in the Midwest 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted Saturday at 08:29 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:29 PM 1 hour ago, MAG5035 said: Actually to further on the NWS and one wanting to get into the reasoning of what they’re putting out product wise, when NWS Pittsburgh issued watches for their CWA last night and posted that to their social media (Facebook). I saw this in the comments. Definitely a candid response, whether CTP subscribes to that method precisely like PBZ does (rarely using deterministic) I’m not sure. But their map products are heavily derived from that NBM nonetheless. Glad to see the pros like to use ensemble guidance. They've been bashed a plenty by some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Saturday at 08:30 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:30 PM 18z NAMs say game on for the LSV! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted Saturday at 08:31 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:31 PM 1 hour ago, Voyager said: Well, this is what CTP put out for Tamaqua in the afternoon forecast package. Not bad for me as the roads "should" generally stay snow free if it's going to be that light. Monday Snow, mainly before 4pm. High near 27. Calm wind becoming north 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Guess they didnt look at or consider the HH Nam. I like it.....alot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Saturday at 08:31 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:31 PM Just now, pasnownut said: Guess they didnt look at or consider the HH Nam. I like it.....alot What are your current thoughts for our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted Saturday at 08:32 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:32 PM 20 minutes ago, Storm Clouds said: Shit man...the NAM needs to stop messing with our heartstrings lol! That will tug em all right back in. I know it did me. for 6 hrs more anyway. We've suffered this long....lets ride or die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted Saturday at 08:33 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:33 PM 1 hour ago, Voyager said: Wasn't that the storm that absolutely crushed our Williamsport friends? Like 21-22” of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Saturday at 08:33 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:33 PM 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 18z NAMs say game on for the LSV! 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Saturday at 08:33 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:33 PM 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 18z NAMs say game on for the LSV! Has the sharp cut off which I actually like to see (no offense to any northers) as it suggests it is realistic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Saturday at 08:34 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:34 PM 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Saturday at 08:34 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:34 PM Edit-Fixed to Kuch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Saturday at 08:40 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:40 PM 3k is sweet too for the LSV 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted Saturday at 08:48 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:48 PM 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: What are your current thoughts for our area? Been doing plumbing and chores all day, but while concerned about the souther shift of late, we often see this, and with this current setup, norther adjustments arent bunk imo. Add to that the typical cool bias we sometimes see, I feel it offers this vort a chance to correct/jump north a bit...somewhat like the HH Nam'r just did. Is it correct, not sure, but like all of us weenies, I have my methods and theories as to how things often roll here and just use my 3 decades of weenie watching to base my assumptions on. Gun to head....we may have another tick or 2 N until we get inside of 24, then a tick back S and then it's go time. Headed out to dinner shortly, and am sorta casually watching, but I still think lowest tier counties are 3-6 w/ 8" lollies especially in somerset/laurels where a 10 spot may happen. As stated the other day, IF we can keep the miller b option delayed, or denied, I feel pretty good abt it. NAM @ 48, the 500's/700s dont show me why it gets sheared and heads SE and makes me scratch my skull a bit. Every panel SLP holds together, is a couple extra hours of beautiful blue over us. Mind you I'm just lookin at HH NAM maps. I may dive deeper later or tomorrow morning. Happy weekend gang. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted Saturday at 08:51 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:51 PM 19 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Has the sharp cut off which I actually like to see (no offense to any northers) as it suggests it is realistic. agreed. with this setup, tight gradient should be expected to the N, as its lowest is 1004mb so forcing is limited, but whoever gets the good qpf at -8 to -10 iso's should rack up some fluff IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted Saturday at 08:52 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:52 PM 15 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 3k is sweet too for the LSV keeps my 3-6 guesstimate for southern tier in play (for 6 hours anyway). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted Saturday at 09:00 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:00 PM 3k keeps us believers believin. SLP never transfers and just bowls across so no qpf dryslot to worry about for us. I'd sign right up for this right now and call it a great day. (it is a great day no matter what this storm does). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Saturday at 09:01 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:01 PM 6 minutes ago, pasnownut said: agreed. with this setup, tight gradient should be expected to the N, as its lowest is 1004mb so forcing is limited, but whoever gets the good qpf at -8 to -10 iso's should rack up some fluff IMO. As long as some aspects of its predict are realistic we can allow it to weigh into thinking IMO. I was initially gung ho in thinking either 1) This system is minoring out due to a jump 2) Or sans a jump, it being pushed well south and the jackpot zone being closer to central VA. But, there have been so many runs of different numerical suites that show it attacking north that I do not think the Norther solutions can be ignored yet. I still hold 2-4 or 3-6 souther counties and lesser above Harrisburg but could change. As posted above, just 48 hours ago the Euro had me getting 8-12". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted Saturday at 09:02 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:02 PM The 18z 3km NAM shows that the real business is about 75 miles wide and per that model, is centered on the M/D line. Clearly a 50 mile shift north or south will make or break our area for better or worse. Regardless, someone somewhere nearby is getting a 10-12 hour thumping with temps in the 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Saturday at 09:11 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:11 PM 18z icon a little more amped and more coastal influence. Still minors out mid event due to transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted Saturday at 09:24 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:24 PM Posted in MA. This dude is pretty darn good... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Saturday at 09:24 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:24 PM Rgem more souther after the Icon bump up. Still no where near an agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted Saturday at 09:35 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:35 PM 3-5” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted Saturday at 09:38 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:38 PM I guess CTP doesn’t like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Saturday at 09:45 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:45 PM 19 minutes ago, Festus said: Posted in MA. This dude is pretty darn good... I’ll approve because he barely included Marysville in the northern extent of his 4-8! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted Saturday at 09:46 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 09:46 PM 22 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Rgem more souther after the Icon bump up. Still no where near an agreement. I still keep thinking about the Blizzard of 96 when 48 hours out we were only supposed to get a 1-3 inch grazing by an OTS fish storm in the Lehigh Valley. We ended up with 26" of windblown fluff, so I suppose anything is possible, even if not likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted Saturday at 09:46 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:46 PM 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I’ll approve because he barely included Marysville in the northern extent of his 4-8! I’m in the 2-4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Saturday at 09:48 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:48 PM 18z National Blend of models still gets Warning snow to the turnpike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted Saturday at 09:51 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:51 PM 18Z GFS slight improvement over 12Z.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted Saturday at 09:53 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:53 PM . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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