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Central PA Winter 2024/2025


Voyager
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14 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

And speaking of CTP, since there was great consternation here (and esp on social media lol) with the rather generous ranges that map product of theirs cranks out. If you select point instead of range you’ll see a much more straight forward map. 

 

Actually to further on the NWS and one wanting to get into the reasoning of what they’re putting out product wise, when NWS Pittsburgh issued watches for their CWA last night and posted that to their social media (Facebook). I saw this in the comments.

image.thumb.png.fd6ceb0a2b46d935eed7654c8e716c5c.png

Definitely a candid response, whether CTP subscribes to that method precisely like PBZ does (rarely using deterministic) I’m not sure. But their map products are heavily derived from that NBM nonetheless. 

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Well, this is what CTP put out for Tamaqua in the afternoon forecast package. Not bad for me as the roads "should" generally stay snow free if it's going to be that light.

Monday
Snow, mainly before 4pm. High near 27. Calm wind becoming north 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
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6 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Well, this is what CTP put out for Tamaqua in the afternoon forecast package. Not bad for me as the roads "should" generally stay snow free if it's going to be that light.

Monday
Snow, mainly before 4pm. High near 27. Calm wind becoming north 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

The down state forum will send you this while their cashing in on the snow.

th?id=OIP.5xawQxYMsN60FNGOawJolwHaKh&pid=Api&P=0&h=220

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21 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Can we come back to reality for a second. I wonder what the verification scores are on the long range HRRR. 

Most verification scores are based on 500H and fronts, not waa, temps and snow maps.  Everyone keeps saying the Euro has been rock steady.  It has rock steadied a good 6-8" from me in less than 2 days.  

Here is the Euro from less than 48 hours ago followed by the one today.  These are 10-1 maps so the difference is even larger than shown here re Kuch.      Now, no modeling has been been rock steady but the long range HRRR, when looking at 500H and fronts, is getting close to be just as valid at this point as a lower resolution global 24-36 hours before an event.  Most professional forecasters do not use Global NWP's this close to an event.  We do because we love the "game."  You rarely see a short range AFD mentioning the Euro or GFS. 

image.thumb.png.fa5c6a07f4b9be40a0544a9006f3117c.png

 

image.thumb.png.413450c03f893f36b4a2e3a104a83fb0.png

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