paweather Posted Saturday at 07:11 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:11 PM I’m still sticking to 3-5” until tonight 0z runs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Saturday at 07:12 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:12 PM Also, to be clear - I haven't given up yet at all. I'm discouraged. Selfishly, I want everything covered. Roads included. Give me a few hours where it looked like deep winter. It's been a long time. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted Saturday at 07:13 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:13 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Saturday at 07:15 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:15 PM Just now, mahantango#1 said: Ah yes...there it is. The map with an 8" contour followed by another 8" contour. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted Saturday at 07:15 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:15 PM 14 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: And speaking of CTP, since there was great consternation here (and esp on social media lol) with the rather generous ranges that map product of theirs cranks out. If you select point instead of range you’ll see a much more straight forward map. Actually to further on the NWS and one wanting to get into the reasoning of what they’re putting out product wise, when NWS Pittsburgh issued watches for their CWA last night and posted that to their social media (Facebook). I saw this in the comments. Definitely a candid response, whether CTP subscribes to that method precisely like PBZ does (rarely using deterministic) I’m not sure. But their map products are heavily derived from that NBM nonetheless. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted Saturday at 07:16 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:16 PM 2 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Well I’m in the 3” line per DT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted Saturday at 07:18 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:18 PM 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Ah yes...there it is. The map with an 8" contour followed by another 8" contour. I could see him doing this 20 years ago - but you would think now there are some pretty easily available tools to shade in a map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted Saturday at 07:22 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:22 PM 8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Ah yes...there it is. The map with an 8" contour followed by another 8" contour. Relax, he will have 1 more maps( final call)...and possibly more 8in.contours to confuse you more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted Saturday at 07:23 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:23 PM Just now, mahantango#1 said: Relax, he will have 2 more maps(2nd call and final call)...and possibly more 8in.contours to confuse you more. I think he had pittsburgh in like 3 counties away the one time or something. His maps get confusing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted Saturday at 07:23 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:23 PM 1 minute ago, mahantango#1 said: Relax, he will have 2 more maps(2nd call and final call)...and possibly more 8in.contours to confuse you more. The start time spaghetti plot is where it’s at lol. 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted Saturday at 07:30 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 07:30 PM Well, this is what CTP put out for Tamaqua in the afternoon forecast package. Not bad for me as the roads "should" generally stay snow free if it's going to be that light. Monday Snow, mainly before 4pm. High near 27. Calm wind becoming north 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted Saturday at 07:33 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:33 PM 8 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: The start time spaghetti plot is where it’s at lol. I wonder if we'll get a start time map. I can't wait for that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted Saturday at 07:38 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:38 PM 6 minutes ago, Voyager said: Well, this is what CTP put out for Tamaqua in the afternoon forecast package. Not bad for me as the roads "should" generally stay snow free if it's going to be that light. Monday Snow, mainly before 4pm. High near 27. Calm wind becoming north 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. The down state forum will send you this while their cashing in on the snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Saturday at 07:38 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:38 PM 16 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Relax, he will have 1 more maps( final call)...and possibly more 8in.contours to confuse you more. What about the start time zig-zag map…when will that be posted? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Saturday at 07:42 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:42 PM 18z HRRR is NOT backing down! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted Saturday at 07:43 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:43 PM Lmao the mix line is getting close to Pitt. Looks right to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Saturday at 07:47 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:47 PM 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 18z HRRR is NOT backing down! Here’s the end of the 18z HRRR at hour 48. Still a little more snow to go after this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted Saturday at 07:48 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:48 PM 4 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Lmao the mix line is getting close to Pitt. Looks right to me. Bring it! (This time anyway) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Saturday at 07:49 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:49 PM 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here’s the end of the 18z HRRR at hour 48. Still a little more snow to go after this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted Saturday at 07:51 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:51 PM 8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 18z HRRR is NOT backing down! AWESOME! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Saturday at 07:53 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:53 PM 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I'd call this a huge win for my area if verified. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted Saturday at 07:58 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:58 PM 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I'd call this a huge win for my area if verified. Huge for many in the LSV for sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted Saturday at 07:59 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 07:59 PM 29 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: The down state forum will send you this while their cashing in on the snow. Considering that I'm doing a new to me run, I'm kind of glad now that it might not be much. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted Saturday at 08:04 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:04 PM Can we come back to reality for a second. I wonder what the verification scores are on the long range HRRR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted Saturday at 08:04 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:04 PM Just now, Rd9108 said: Can we come back to reality for a second. I wonder what the verification scores are on the long range HRRR. For Sunday and Monday 100% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted Saturday at 08:11 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:11 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted Saturday at 08:15 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:15 PM Shit man...the NAM needs to stop messing with our heartstrings lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted Saturday at 08:16 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:16 PM Just now, Storm Clouds said: Shit man...the NAM needs to stop messing with our heartstrings lol! I bet the midatlantic weenies are freaking out and others telling them it's the NAM and to discount it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted Saturday at 08:20 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:20 PM 3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: I bet the midatlantic weenies are freaking out and others telling them it's the NAM and to discount it. Don’t look at the MA forum train wreck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Saturday at 08:21 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:21 PM 21 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Can we come back to reality for a second. I wonder what the verification scores are on the long range HRRR. Most verification scores are based on 500H and fronts, not waa, temps and snow maps. Everyone keeps saying the Euro has been rock steady. It has rock steadied a good 6-8" from me in less than 2 days. Here is the Euro from less than 48 hours ago followed by the one today. These are 10-1 maps so the difference is even larger than shown here re Kuch. Now, no modeling has been been rock steady but the long range HRRR, when looking at 500H and fronts, is getting close to be just as valid at this point as a lower resolution global 24-36 hours before an event. Most professional forecasters do not use Global NWP's this close to an event. We do because we love the "game." You rarely see a short range AFD mentioning the Euro or GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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